Reply to School preference and offer odds

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[quote=Anonymous]This year the lottery results data has a new field - "applications on results day." I've been thinking about how you might use that data to get a better understanding of school preferences and/or odds of getting an offer. Some thoughts (welcome others!):

For individual schools/grade levels, you can determine the percent of total applicants that were matched at a school they ranked higher on match day. This gives a rough sense of a school's desirability - the lower this number, the higher the school is ranked as a whole on students' lottery lists.

You can also determine the percent of total applicants that were matched at the school or a school they ranked higher on match day. If you assume students are generally ranking similar schools and in a similar order of preference (this is a BIG if), it gives a rough sense of the chances of matching at a particular school or a school you ranked higher on match day.

The above kind of falls apart for high school because of how application schools manage their matches and waitlists. But at least we finally have a solid number on how many students are applying to the application schools. You still can't really calculate an acceptance rate though, since some students were presumably accepted to multiple application schools but only matched to one.[/quote]

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