Reply to S/O: schools w/ great merit and are top producers of STEM PhDs

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[quote=Anonymous]Someone in another thread posted this link that shows the top feeder schools for Ph.D. programs in different subjects, adjusted for size of institution: https://www.collegetransitions.com/dataverse/top-feeders-phd-programs. Looks to be a subject-specific breakout of that NSF list that gets posted from time to time (updated with 2024 data).

Looking at the STEM lists, it's clear that engineering tips to heavily to larger/STEM universities, both public and private. 
But the data are different for other STEM subjects, and the abundance of small merit $ schools on these lists has me thinking about ROI for aspiring scientists who might not qualify for need-based aid. A surprising number of schools that turn up repeatedly are lesser-known small schools that give significant merit aid/discounting -- sometimes so much that the cost of attendance is the same as or even below that of state flagships.

Some examples: the top feeder schools for bio, chem, and physics include Kalamazoo (#22, 6, and 36 respectively), Earlham (7, 20, 47), Hendrix (36, 13, 29), oft-maligned Juniata  (20, 4, 32), and Allegheny (16, 8, 33). My understanding is that after merit discounts, the cost of attending these schools is typically the same as or below flagship. [b]So if these tiny merit $ schools are as/more affordable than a state school, [u]and[/u] they're more likely to send a student to STEM doctoral programs, wouldn't they be potentially the best investment for an aspiring scientist in these subjects who wasn't likely to get need-based aid?[/b] This is a genuine question, not an attempt to rehash well-worn arguments about some of these schools. If I'm missing something in my thinking, please tell me what it is.
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