Reply to Where will mortgage rates go in the next 1-2 years?

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]They will go back to where they were before the pandemic, about 3-4%[/quote]

No way. They will be 5-5.5 for years. Inflation is much harder to get out of than into. They have to take those trillions out of the economy with taxes or a recession to get back to 2%, and at the same time the debt is so high their only hope is to inflate it away. I don’t buy form a second that they are racing to a 2% target. They gotta get rid of some of that debt first and that means high interest for a longer time and increased taxes. With the supply side problems on housing compounding the problem by keeping demand high.[/quote]

I can handle a 5-5.5 rate, but the 30 year mortgage is averaging near 7% today and the Fed is going to raise rates again and again in the near future. So how quickly do we think we're getting back to a 5-5.5% rate in the next couple of years, or may we not even see 5.5% rates in the next couple of years?[/quote]

The modal interest rate was historically about 7% for like 40 years. I’d expect at least that for the next year or two and then slowly down to 5.5 over 3-5y.[/quote]

Agreed. Powell's statement today means 7% 30Y rates by year-end.

Gotta get worse before it gets better. 5% with 2.5 years, maybe sub 4% within 5 years.

Look folks - Baby Boomer retirements are inherently inflationary. We are not adding workers fast enough, immigration pathways are not opened.[/quote]

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