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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]I think Putin will detonate a low powered nuke in Ukraine before he withdraws and faces the specter of a public loss of face. If Putin withdraws, he dies. It’s as simple as that.

So basically we have Ukrainian civilization survival vs. Putin’s psychopathic survival. Who will blink first? [/quote]

Three problems with that scenario:

1) prevailing weather patterns make it unavoidable that much of the deadly fallout lands on Russian civilian areas, resulting in mass death even the FSB cannot cover up, and

2) Putin knows the international consequences would not be survivable for his regime, and,

3) successful use of a tactical nuclear weapon requires equipping your own forces to survive, and continue to fight on the contaminated battlefield.  Russian logistics are barely able to supply their troops with the bare necessities to survive and fight right now.  Hypothermia and frostbite casualties have been massive (and covered up).  Hunger and malnutrition hamper current efforts.  Russia is in no position to effectively use one of their nukes.[/quote]

Your assessment is accurate. But I don’t think Putin cares about anything except his own survival and control. He will sacrifice the Russian border oblasts to nuclear fallout if he thinks it will give Russia the upper hand. He has the propaganda machine to support him the “tragedy” of this “necessary sacrifice.”

Given his failing health and his failing military, I think we are possibly entering the most dangerous phase of this war. A desperate man will take desperate measures.[/quote]

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