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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote]Ukraine 2022: pop 43.8M[/quote]

Are you aware that more than 8 million people have left Ukraine in 2022?

As for the rest - time will tell. [/quote]

Most of those 8 million are Ukrainian women with their children, and the very elderly.

Now consider Russia’s demographic time-bomb, compared to Ukraine:

-  Ukraine is demographically roughly 15 years younger than Russia, and the vast majority of the more than 1.2 million Russians who have fled Russia over the past year are military-aged males (including approx 70K trained computer programmers / IT professionals).  The last year the "Russian" ethnic demographic was reproducing in anything near replacement levels occurred in the early 1980s.

At best, the Russian supply of 15-45 year-olds suitable for military service is roughly double that of Ukraine; and that’s assuming the Russians are capable of devoting 100% of their military efforts to Ukraine (which they can't, due to their long border with China and many other nations).  If Ukraine can maintain a 3:1 loss rate in their favor AND continue the current rate of Russian equipment losses, while continuing to inflict something approaching the current levels of C3 and logistics asset attrition, Russia will be the ones who lose the "War of Attrition".

This rough estimate does not even take into account the impact of future offensive action by the Ukrainians, as any major success that interdicts a major road or rail line in the Russian occupied areas could quickly turn large areas of the Russian front lines into the equivalent of a heavily-armed homeless camp, with roughly the same military utility.  Given the option of surrendering to the Ukrainians, or obliteration by artillery, what do you believe the average, forcibly-mobilized Russian will choose?  There are numerous accounts of dissatisfied Mobiks shooting their commander in the back, and surrendering.

Russia stands no chance of winning militarily.

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