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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Partially about Ukraine, but also just holding on to power inside Russia. The guy needs an off ramp. That might be good for all of us. What are some available off ramps that could clam this down?[/quote]

The only possible off-ramp that I can picture is a deal in which Ukraine agrees to remain outside of NATO. However, after the last 3 miserable weeks, Ukraine will never agree to cease all military cooperation with the West. If they remain outside of NATO, they will wish to retain the freedom to stiffen their defense capabilities via assistance from the West.

So Putin's off-ramp wouldn't lead to a weak, isolated Ukraine. But with the magic of his propaganda machine, perhaps Putin could convince Russian citizens that Russia scored a great victory.

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Zelensky has already declared Ukraine will not be part of NATO. It will, in many years, be part of the European Union, but that's different, and Putin really can't stop that. However Putin also wants according to the terms of the treaty:
1. "De-nazification" - offensive to Jewish Zelensky, but ultimately meaningless and can easily be included. It's not attached to much action.
2. Independent territories AND Crimea. That is the current sticking point. Ukraine does not want to give up any territory, and Putin is insisting on that.

So to answer the question, there is no visible off-ramp, because such a treaty, even if Putin gets the territories he wants, and that he's been "occupying" for years now, is nowhere near enough to take a victory lap on TV and justify the thousands of dead Russian soldiers, not to mention the crushing sanctions, which will affect daily life of every single Russian to a significant extent and probably lead to Russia defaulting on its debt - which is a huge deal. Russia risks total bankruptcy. China and India don't really want to support such a pariah state, they need the West more.

So yeah. He's not going to survive this. The question is: will he resort to nuclear plant sabotage or other final act of terror before leaving Ukraine? Will he send large portions of his own population to Gulags in a fit of pique? He's capable of hurting so many people in his humiliation.
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Your thinking of it in terms of reality. Putin is not limited by reality.

With his propaganda machine, Putin can create an alternate reality in which, by keeping Ukraine out of NATO, he has saved Russia from certain destruction.[/quote]

He will try, but he will not succeed. This isn't pre-internet or pre-social media days, PP. There will always be rural parts of Russia who revere Putin and only listen to state TV. But the big cities know what's going on. The young people everywhere know what's going on. Right now in Russia, you can access foreign media sources by VPN. It's not exactly hard.
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