Reply to Panetta: Israel may attack Iran in April

Forum Index » Political Discussion

Reply to "Panetta: Israel may attack Iran in April"

Subject:

Emoticons





More smilies

Text Color: Font: Close Marks

[quote=jsteele][quote=TheManWithAUsername][quote=jsteele][quote=TheManWithAUsername]
The taboo against assassination has never made sense. Of course the leadership wants to prohibit it - they'd much rather thousands or millions of innocents die than one of them suffer.[/quote]

You make a good argument but just because assassination is not as bad -- at least in the short term -- as alternatives doesn't mean that it is good. Just how long do you expect Iran to sit around doing nothing while its scientists are killed? There have already been a couple of Israeli scientists killed in mysterious circumstances (one in the US). Tit for tat only lasts so long before one side escalates. Iran is not the pushover that some of Israel's enemies have proven to be.
[/quote]
I don't expect it to change their behavior at all.

From their (i.e., his) words, they couldn't be any more opposed to the U.S. and Israel. I take them at their word that they would gleefully eradicate us if they could, so angering them isn't an issue.

I understand that certain actions could push them into a corner such that they feel that they have to act despite whatever is currently restraining them, but I don't think killing any number of scientists will create that reaction. I don't think the Iranian government will be inclined to do something desperate unless they're directly threatened with death or removal.

I have about as much basis for predicting their reactions as does my 5-year-old, but I'd rather gamble with the prospect of them starting a conventional war with our allies than gamble on what they'd do with a nuclear weapon, possibly directly to us.  [/quote]

I'm not sure that you understood my post. So, let's sort this out.

First, it is not at all clear that the deaths of the scientists killed so far has fundamentally harmed any Iranian nuclear program that may or may not exist. Maybe the deaths set back the program, maybe they didn't. But, if a program of that importance hangs on the lives of such a small number of individuals, I would be shocked to find those individuals wandering around the streets of Tehran.

Second, my point is not that killing Iranian scientists would lead Iran to launch either a conventional or nuclear attack. Rather, I envision the sort of tit for tat that is common in that part of the world. As I said, Israeli scientists have been killed recently in unusual circumstances. Was Iran behind those deaths? I have no way of knowing.  But, if Iran is behind them, how will Israel react? How will Iran react to that reaction? If things escalate -- which is the natural tendency of such things, we will be right back to the massive sort of fighting that you think is being prevented by assassinations. You seem to see assassination as a solution to avoid greater violence. I see it as a step that is more likely to lead to greater violence than it is to avoid further violence. 
Finally, it is really disappointing to see you resort to the sort of right-wing jingoism that you normally parody. Please provide one single direct quote from an Iranian leader saying that he would like to eradicate the US. Yes, I know that "everyone knows" such things have been said. Just like "everyone knew" Iraq was producing WMDs. I don't care what "everyone knows". I would like you to provide one direct quote.

[/quote]

Options

	Disable HTML in this message
	Disable BB Code in this message
	Disable smilies in this message

Review message

Search Recent Topics Hottest Topics