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[quote=jsteele]I was just watching the Republican presidential candidates debate on Meet the Press. As it is looking very likely that Mitt Romney will win the nomination, I thought I'd take a minute to pontificate about him.

One of the most dramatic moments of this event was a confrontation between Newt Gingrich and Romney regarding anti-Gingrich ads run by a super-PAC that supports Romney. Romney stated clearly that he had not seen the ad, but then went on to describe it almost word for word. It appeared that Romney had told a blatant lie and then sold himself out about it. This highlights Romney's most prominent characteristic: his willingness to say anything, take any position, or do anything to get elected. His legendary flip-flopping, the claim by his campaign official that ads don't have to be truthful because they are "propaganda", and his constant dissembling (even wrongly stating during a debate that his first name is "Mitt" when it's actually "Willard") all strengthen the perception that there is literally nothing about this man that we can believe.

Yet, a significant number of Americans, including many people who claim to be Democrats, are willing to trust this man to be President. One of the most frequent justifications I hear for this support is a belief that Romney, despite everything, is actually a moderate who would be reasonable, even from a liberal standpoint, as President.

As best I can tell, the belief that Romney is a moderate is due to the fact that he presented himself as a moderate during his political career in Massachusetts. It is assumed that this moderate Romney persona is the true one and Romney has moved rightward during his presidential runs due to the political realities of Republican primary campaigns. But, plenty of evidence suggests that Romney assumed his moderate persona simply because that was necessary to be elected in Massachusetts. For instance, when preparing to run for the US Senate against Ted Kennedy, Romney used polling data to determine that he should run as a pro-choice candidate. Romney's position was that he was personally pro-life, but supported Roe v. Wade and abortion rights. He continued his pro-choice position during his successful campaign for governor. But in 2005, exactly when Romney decided to run for president, he announced that he had changed his position and now opposed abortion rights.

So, is Romney an anti-choice politician who took a pro-choice position in order to get elected, or is he a pro-choice candidate who has taken an anti-choice position in order to get elected? I think I could argue this either way equally strongly. Since either argument can be made, I think far too many people are projecting the view they would like Romney to hold onto him. Hence, pro-choice individuals tell themselves that Romney is actually moderate regarding abortion rights and pro-life individuals believe Romney to oppose abortion rights.

In my opinion, the important factor is not Romney's actual belief because he has repeatedly shown that his actual belief is secondary to the position he will take. The primary factor is what will get him elected. So, imagine that Romney were to win the primary and then go on to defeat President Obama in the general election. Would Romney govern in a manner consistent with his personal beliefs, or would he choose policies that would increase has chances for re-election? I think the answer to that is clear. In that case, what would drive Romney? We know that Romney, if he is elected, it will be despite the misgivings of the rightwing of the Republican party. Simply put, the rightwing doesn't trust him. Romney would have to be concerned that a failure to address the rightwing agenda would result in a primary challenge to him -- something that could be devastating to his re-election hopes. So, I think it's reasonable to assume that Romney as president would govern in a manner aimed at appeasing right-wingers. As a result, I think any liberals who believe that Romney would be a moderate president are deluding themselves.

In my opinion, those seeking a moderate republican for whom to vote already have the perfect candidate. His name is Barack Obama. Unlike Romney, he has been consistent in this regard.

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