Reply to LCPS | in-person returning at all in Q3 or hopes just for Q4?

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[quote=Anonymous]They are meeting tonight to discuss. Here’s my 2 cents:

The 7 day average is 16.6 right now. Yes we use 14 for school but the 14 follows the 7 because it’s all the same numbers. Which means when teachers have to report on 1/12, we will be sitting right around 16% PCR if not higher. Tomorrow through Jan 15 is when we will see cases REALLY start to climb if the Thanksgiving pattern holds -exactly 10-14 post thanksgiving is when our numbers started skyrocketing. That window encompasses 10 days post Christmas and post NYE. Already we have had 3 days this week over 5k new cases a new day in VA, which we had never hit before Christmas.

So, if they KEEP their set metrics for community spread, Q3 would be online. However, they will be looking at changing their metrics to school based spread and reopening with those metrics because they believe it doesn’t spread in schools. Schools were asked to pull data to present to them for this. Now, I don’t know how that works because aside from a few sped and EL1 kids and a couple pilots, none of 6-12 has returned for us to have data on and they’re the major spread concern. K-2 went for several weeks but they are cohorted and small and don’t spread as much. By the teacher accounts the board has shared, mitigation was a mess at that level. We don’t have much data on 3-5 as they only made it back 4 days.

Here’s what I personally think will happen: 
They will set new school based metrics. If schools hit their metrics, the schools go DL. If those schools have too many staff out sick or under quarantine for exposure, those schools will have to return to DL. This will be a mess and a hassle for those schools particularly ones in high transmission zip codes like sterling.

With new metrics, they will resume hybrid. K-5, sped and EL1 would start week of 1/12. The week after that is a half week due to student holidays for end of quarter and inauguration, so 6-12 would phase in 1/21 as previously planned to begin Q3. Then it’s just roll the dice and see how long we can keep it going with staff constantly being out sick or because they don’t know if it’s a cold or covid or because they are a close contact and have to quarantine. We won’t have enough staff to cover each others classes so it’ll be bouncing back and forth between DL and hybrid in some schools if this happens. Once 6-12 returns we will see a big increase in school spread since we know they spread it easier and aren’t cohorted and when community spread is this high, schools reflect it. They then are responsible for creating further school spread. But maybe they’re ok with that trade off.

Alternately, they look at the stats, which are high, read parent feedback which says I picked hybrid on community spread metrics and I deserve to not have those changed on me when it affects my child’s safety greatly, and they understand no teachers have vaccines yet. They avoid all the hassle of what my previously laid out assumptions would create, and say we will plan for a Q4 return when numbers have gone down AND teachers will have gotten the vaccine. Considering not a lot picked hybrid to begin with (lots of singleton in person classes at secondary level) and some who did wouldn’t send their kid hybrid in these circumstances right now, they would really be serving the majority by doing that. But they’re very unpredictable.

TL; DR: we don’t know yet but personally as school staff I think they’re going to try it. I put it 60/40 they resume January k-12 phasing. If they don’t, my second reasoning will explain why and we will definitely be back in for Q4 (which honestly I think is what most teachers and parents think sounds safest right now anyway). Frankly, it all comes down to which side they are more swayed by, the return now or be safer than that side.

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