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[quote=Anonymous]It is hard to tell, but you have to factor in (1) the number reported as not recovered (long haulers are probably in that 3,173 figure), and (2) sort of guess at the untested positives based on how many new cases are coming from contact tracing (almost none, last I saw was 7.5%), so the counted positives got it from someone positive who isn't counted, and may have spread it to people who are also not counted. Maybe the best multiplier for that is the r1 (currently .98). The other unknown is whether there is one very mobile superspreader, or hundreds of individual untraced contacts. The fact that so few people are cooperating with contact tracers (only 42.5% cooperating) makes it really, really hard to know.

The 3K+ known cases are less concerning because presumably they are out of circulation (though, given what people are saying about parents sending pos. cases to school, maybe not). The bigger problem is the second category, the untraced people they got it from and gave it to, who are still in circulation.[/quote]

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