Reply to D.C. has added a metric which means Phase 3 is probably months away.

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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]DC has a rather nice website to show the data of current cases, and goes so far as to show how close we are to the threshold for Phase 3.

https://coronavirus.dc.gov/page/coronavirus-data

In recent days (maybe it has been there longer--I just didn't notice it), they added a metric [quote]"Percentage of new cases from quarantined contacts".  This means how many of the new positive cases were "close contacts" of someone they were already aware of, kind of a measure of contact tracing and a measure of how much of the community spread is from unknown sources. D.C.'s guideline are that this needs to be about 60% to move to Phase 3.[/quote]

DC is at 3.1%

This is going to take a massive effort to get this number up to the level required for Phase 3. That or the Mayor is going to have to fudge and drop that from the consideration list.

(note: has anyone seen a similar number for MD or VA?)

[/quote]
That's a good measure. I think of it as kind of "leakage" of cases coming into the community. If cases keep cropping up from unknown sources, but you have some idea of what the person who tested positive was doing, you may be able to identify a source or behavior that there can be policy change to resolve. For example, if 50% of your new cases reported being at a bar in the previous week, maybe you close bars. If there are a lot of reports of being with someone who recently traveled, maybe you put in screening at the airports (saliva test and request to quarantine until results are back).

I really wish there was some guidance that if your county has a case rate above X, then you shouldn't travel outside of your county. [/quote]

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