Reply to Advice on MoCo and PG Neighborhoods

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[quote=Anonymous]I think Hyattsville is a far more certain investment than Silver Spring.

1. Schools. People in SS think that their homes are discounted for lower ranking schools when they compare against Bethesda which is true. However, there is a pecking order within SS and the magnets prop up the rankings significantly. Its pretty likely that schools across MOCO will continue to drop in rankings. MCPS does not seem very supportive anymore of the magnet programs and if they go there goes SS. SS is more at risk of absorbing larger percentages of low income kids which will further drop the scores. If the busing stuff happens and depresses values in the higher to mid ranking MCPS schools this will reduce values in SS by even more because buyers who prefer a better ranked school can now afford it.

In PG the school discount IS actually baked in. People either decide that TAG is good enough (and it is pretty good) or they plan on private. If the schools improve, great but if not there is no real hit to the property values.

2. Financial stability -this is a big one. MOCO is broke and running in the red with no plans on how to fix it. In a boom economy, revenues have been going down. All indictors predict a further drop in revenue. This means that services need to be cut and taxes need to go up. I've lived in NY and CA so higher taxes do not really bother me BUT I do know that an increase in taxes especially property taxes will decrease the values of the homes.

3. Commute - The metro lines that serve PG are far more reliable than the red line. Its more convenient to get to the Navy Yard but also to Pentagon City (Amazon and the other companies that will move into this area). PG is the one area of MOCO that will probably benefit from Amazon.

4. Trends - Hyattsville, CP and Mount Rainier are the new hip places to be. They have the artsy crowd, the diversity crowd, the millennials and its continue to grow.

5. Potential value - This is an important one for almost any investment. There is always a ceiling on potential value. The closer you get to it the less you make in appreciation and the more likely you are to lose with any downturn. MoCo has already started to drop from its peak over a year ago (and that peak never really hit 2007/2008 levels). PG on the other hand has a bigger band of potential value. [/quote]

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