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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]

I've been around Montgomery County politics for many years, and let me tell you... it is no surprise to me that it took David Blair $5 million and TWO Washington Post endorsements to come within striking distance of Marc Elrich. The hard truth is that Elrich has a very potent base, a coalition of unions, NIMBYs of various stripes (pure NIMBYs but also well-meaning tree-huggers), environmentalists who don't align with "smart growth" advocates, CASA, and the far left. David Blair and Nancy Floreen were just the opponents Elrich and his base wanted - the friends of Big Development and Big Business. The only person who can defeat Elrich is the person who can crack this coalition.

Hans Riemer is already trying to do this with limited success. If there were an election now, he probably wouldn't win, but he might be able to pull enough away from Elrich to help someone else win. Riemer is taking socially progressive positions while attempting to divide the Left along anti-growth/pro-growth fault lines. He's become the de facto standard bearer for the left wing of the "Smart Growth" coalition (think, Greater Greater Washington, urbanists) and peeling off some of Elrich's supporters, especially younger supporters, on the grounds that he's anti-housing (and anti-affordable housing by extension). So, instead of being the traditional fighter for the little guy against Big Business and Big Developer, [b]Elrich is now being characterized as the protector of single family homeowners against younger middle-income families who need more homes. This is a grand oversimplification of the trut[/b]h, and Hans probably knows that, but it's pretty smart politics. That being said, he has a very off-putting personality and social media presence (though not as off-putting as Leventhal was) so I don't see him gaining more of a following beyond the Coalition for Smarter Growth.

Meanwhile, David Blair has been signaling his intent to run, or at least, his dissatisfaction with the Elrich regime. https://capsmd.org/issues/more/stories-opinions/county-in-five-years-part-one

And Elrich will be 72 when he's up for re-election, which could also become an issue. 
It will be very interesting to see how this house of cards will play out. [/quote]

Nah, it's pretty accurate.

The Coalition for Smarter Growth is based in Virginia. They're not very relevant to Montgomery County politics.[/quote]

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