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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Yesterday’s was a “preshock” to today. Scientists said there was a 1/20 chance there would be a bigger one today. [b]The aftershocks going forward should be smaller.[/b][/quote]
[b]
Funny, that's not what I read. Top seismologists say California is due for 8.0 earthquake or greater. They haven't had one in the past few decades and its supposed to arrive on a 100-year cycle.[/b]
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/05/earthquakes-southern-california-seismologist-ridgecrest

For southern California, it works out to something close to a magnitude 8 every 100 or 200 years, a magnitude 7 about every 20 to 30 years, and a magnitude 6 every three years. The bigger earthquakes are much less frequent than the smaller ones.

This is the first magnitude 6 quake in 20 years. It’s the longest interval we’ve ever had. We also saw the rates of 5s and 4s and 3s go down. Is that just random fluctuation? Potentially.

We had 20 years that was a particularly quiet time, and what we don’t know is, was that an actual change in rate and now we’re going to go back to a higher rate or was that just random clustering? [u][b]Either way, we know that the last 20 years was abnormal and that’s not our long-term rate, and we should expect more earthquakes than we’ve been having recently. Chances are, we’re going to have more earthquakes in the next five years than we’ve had in the last five years.[/b][/u]

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