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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]We are in bounds for Bancroft.  My kid is currently at a private english-speaking preschool, and we'll continue there until K, if necessary (but I would prefer to her start spanish before K, if possible).

Our main priorities are (1) spanish and (2) proximity to Mt. Pleasant.  I realize that we're in a good position, because we're excited about our inbounds school.  We are going to list Bancroft as #1.  I'm not sure how to order the rest of our list, which just consists of nearby schools with bilingual or immersion programs.  I realize that we don't have a great shot at any of these, but I figured I'd get some advice.

In what order would you put these schools and are there any we are missing?

Oyster Adams
Marie Reed
HD Cooke
Powell
Mundo Verde (bus from Mt. P)
Bruce Monroe
Breakthrough
Dorothy Height 
Cook
Tubman
Bethune[/quote]

Some of what I say is repeating things said above.  I can comment on the DCPS schools.

Drop Oyster, Powell (no PK3).  
Any school with inbounds kids on waitlist (check DCPS lottery stats) you have zero chance of getting in, so don't give a spot unless you have extra slots and want to hail mary.
  - Marie Reed Dual, English dominant: no chance OOB
  - Marie Reed English only - just checked, no chance: 2018 30 inbounds applied, 12 waitlisted.
  - Cooke (only one): 2018 0 Proximity kids got in during lottery, but I bet a few came off waitlist.  If you have prox preference, list them (list them first).  W/out prox, probably not worth it.
  - Tubman: like Cooke, check stats, very unlikely but non-zero. List near top.
  - Bruce-Monroe: more like Marie Reed, really almost no chance.  drop
Bethune is in Brookland.  
Everyone gets in to Dorothy Height, so any school listed below this will be a wasted spot
I really appreciate your desire to do DCPS schools.

Also: Bancroft last year 7/42 inbounds kids got in after the lottery.   Probably 10 total after movement.  So figure your odds this year for Bancroft are about 25% (1 in four).

Mundo Verde went about 50 PK3 kids down the waitlist, with 600 applicants.  So they're about 1 in ten chance.  If you list them after Bancroft, you'll either get into Bancroft or you won't get in to either school given way lottery numbers work.

Breakthrough is an odd case.  45/215 got it after lottery.  But by October, 170 total had been offered spots.  So if you are willing to wait...

-----

The core of your list is therefore:

Bancroft (1 in 4)
HD Cooke (unlikely)
Breakthrough (1 in 5 right after lottery)
Bethune (new to the lottery in 2019, so I can't estimate your chances - anyone have data?)
Tubman (unlikely)
Dorothy Height (basically guaranteed)

Leaving out Bethune which we can't estimate, you're flipping two coins and if both come up heads, you get into Bancroft.  Otherwise, Dorothy Height.  And if at DH, you're waitlisted at Breakthrough and 75% likely to get off the waitlist by October.

- Lottery Stats Person

[/quote]

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