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Reply to "Have you noticed 538's recent Senate forecast trend?"
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[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]Polls all rely on phone calls, right? So how do they sample young voters? I have 3 kids over 18 and they all told me they never answer their cell phone if they don't know who's calling them.[/quote] My understanding is that they weight the responses they get. So (as an overstated example) if they know the population age 18-28 is 20% of the final vote count in most elections, and their polling sample has only 10% of respondents age 18-28, then they’ll double-count their responses to make up the difference. I suppose another way to handle it is to just poll more until you get enough young voters. But every poller might take a slightly different attitude as to how to calculate the “normal” percent of each age group in each election, and how best to make up the difference. So that explains why different polls get systematically different results (eg Rasmussen skews heavily Republican because of some undetermined aspect of heir “secret sauce”). [/quote]
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