WSJ: rapidly growing mismatch between the price of available housing inventory and demand

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[Post New]04/03/2017 22:13
quote
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:When a double income household with each partner making in the low to mid $100ks (3 x the national median income and more than 2x the DC median) are locked out of most desirable areas- you have a market that's not sustainable.


National stats aren't relevant to the DC area, are you still waiting for NYC to fall
[Post New]04/03/2017 23:25
quote
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:When a double income household with each partner making in the low to mid $100ks (3 x the national median income and more than 2x the DC median) are locked out of most desirable areas- you have a market that's not sustainable.


National stats aren't relevant to the DC area, are you still waiting for NYC to fall


Lots of million plus homes that are sitting for months in the DMV. 20-30 year old mcmansions that are dated but listed for 1.2 starting. High end luxury is already falling, the cuts will start from the top and work their way down. What % of people earn more than the 400k required to buy a 1.2 million home? My guess is a lot less than the % of million dollar homes in this area which is a demand mismatch. Something will give somewhere. The pool of high end buyers isnt as big as everyone likes to think (thanks to the rubbish economy and growing wealth gap). The Fed sought to reflate housing during the last crash and now theyre fretting about how to resolve the 0% money beast.
[Post New]04/03/2017 23:27
quote
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:When a double income household with each partner making in the low to mid $100ks (3 x the national median income and more than 2x the DC median) are locked out of most desirable areas- you have a market that's not sustainable.


But while that income is high for the reat of the country, it is not high here. You are competing against the lawyers, lobbyists, tech guys, defense firm owners...whether you like it or not. Good luck.


LOL there are not enough "defense firm owners" to buy your overpriced shitbox in East Falls Church. Something will give.
[Post New]04/03/2017 23:34
quote
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:When a double income household with each partner making in the low to mid $100ks (3 x the national median income and more than 2x the DC median) are locked out of most desirable areas- you have a market that's not sustainable.


But while that income is high for the reat of the country, it is not high here. You are competing against the lawyers, lobbyists, tech guys, defense firm owners...whether you like it or not. Good luck.


LOL there are not enough "defense firm owners" to buy your overpriced shitbox in East Falls Church. Something will give.


Well, there are more than enough lawyers and lobbysists to make up the difference!

You sure do sound jealous.
[Post New]04/04/2017 00:10
quote
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:When a double income household with each partner making in the low to mid $100ks (3 x the national median income and more than 2x the DC median) are locked out of most desirable areas- you have a market that's not sustainable.


But while that income is high for the reat of the country, it is not high here. You are competing against the lawyers, lobbyists, tech guys, defense firm owners...whether you like it or not. Good luck.


LOL there are not enough "defense firm owners" to buy your overpriced shitbox in East Falls Church. Something will give.


Someone did tonight, and they paid $33,000 above the list price for the privilege of doing so.
[Post New]04/04/2017 04:29
quote
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:When a double income household with each partner making in the low to mid $100ks (3 x the national median income and more than 2x the DC median) are locked out of most desirable areas- you have a market that's not sustainable.


But while that income is high for the reat of the country, it is not high here. You are competing against the lawyers, lobbyists, tech guys, defense firm owners...whether you like it or not. Good luck.


LOL there are not enough "defense firm owners" to buy your overpriced shitbox in East Falls Church. Something will give.


Well, there are more than enough lawyers and lobbysists to make up the difference!

You sure do sound jealous.


Not to mention many dual income people working in tech like DH and myself. A 200k-250k job is quite easy to come by in tech (im not even mentioning our RSUs either). When you have not one one, but 2 highly compensated people, it really is cheap as peanuts living here vs if we lived where our companies are based in CA.
[Post New]04/04/2017 12:19
quote
singledadmclean
Member Offline
One reason developers build six bedroom houses is that the marginal cost of a 6 bedroom house, as opposed to 4 bedroom house, is small. There isn't much to those huge houses--just wood and re-manufactured wood. The real cost of the tear-down and McMansion buildup is the land, followed by the permits. Given the scarcity of land, and the big fixed cost of permits, you might as well build as big as possible.

Many of those large houses have apartments in the basement, or in-laws living in the house so there are more than 2 adults in the average McMansion.
[Post New]04/04/2017 14:21
quote
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:We need to expand affordable housing, increase density by changing zoning laws, in places that increase accessibility to transit. And yet instead, all the new developments seem to be either giant mcmansions way far out there, or giant new 1-bedroom apartment buildings in urban neighborhoods.


The giant fat McMansions are also replacing old housing stock close-in. There is going to be a glut of 6+bedroom Craftsman houses all over the area with a 'dated' look in 7-10 years. These are going for $1.6-$2.5 million around us--but they are all very similar. I just don't see a market for all of these very gigantic houses down the road.


I'd rather have nice houses for which the price has to come down than the continuation of the crappy old housing stock that still litters many close-in areas. Those old houses may have been well-built (in some instances) but they're just not suitable for modern living -- and having to pay $900k or more for them, and still have to fix them up, is maddening.
[Post New]04/04/2017 14:25
quote
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:We need to expand affordable housing, increase density by changing zoning laws, in places that increase accessibility to transit. And yet instead, all the new developments seem to be either giant mcmansions way far out there, or giant new 1-bedroom apartment buildings in urban neighborhoods.


The giant fat McMansions are also replacing old housing stock close-in. There is going to be a glut of 6+bedroom Craftsman houses all over the area with a 'dated' look in 7-10 years. These are going for $1.6-$2.5 million around us--but they are all very similar. I just don't see a market for all of these very gigantic houses down the road.


I'd rather have nice houses for which the price has to come down than the continuation of the crappy old housing stock that still litters many close-in areas. Those old houses may have been well-built (in some instances) but they're just not suitable for modern living -- and having to pay $900k or more for them, and still have to fix them up, is maddening.


We bought a "charming" older home for about a 1$mn and it's a money pit. I have a new respect for those who buy brand spanking new McMansions with bedrooms for each kid, grandma, grandpa and the dog.
[Post New]04/04/2017 14:32
quote
Anonymous
Same here. I loved my charming older home, until we had kids.
We are relocating to a less expensive city, and I want a new home. I want double sinks, walk in closets, laundry located off the master, open concept family/kitchen, a mudroom off an attached garage...
Sign me up.
[Post New]04/04/2017 15:05
quote
Anonymous
singledadmclean wrote:One reason developers build six bedroom houses is that the marginal cost of a 6 bedroom house, as opposed to 4 bedroom house, is small. There isn't much to those huge houses--just wood and re-manufactured wood. The real cost of the tear-down and McMansion buildup is the land, followed by the permits. Given the scarcity of land, and the big fixed cost of permits, you might as well build as big as possible.

Many of those large houses have apartments in the basement, or in-laws living in the house so there are more than 2 adults in the average McMansion.


I wouldnt be surprised if in the future they become multifamily units.
[Post New]04/04/2017 15:06
quote
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Same here. I loved my charming older home, until we had kids.
We are relocating to a less expensive city, and I want a new home. I want double sinks, walk in closets, laundry located off the master, open concept family/kitchen, a mudroom off an attached garage...
Sign me up.


Ditto!

Single people are fine with small homes. Family needs bigger house. As simple as that.
Since single people are now escaping DC en mass for more fun areas that causes market shift.
[Post New]04/04/2017 16:10
quote
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:Same here. I loved my charming older home, until we had kids.
We are relocating to a less expensive city, and I want a new home. I want double sinks, walk in closets, laundry located off the master, open concept family/kitchen, a mudroom off an attached garage...
Sign me up.


Yup. Not huge, but not small, I love my 5BR 3.5BA home with a closet the size of a small bedroom with floor to cieling built ins.i too had a small shit shack and almost suffocated with baby #2 came along and couldn't move fast enough.

Just set up the deck and patio today and will enjoy my additional 1,000 sq feet of deck and patio.
[Post New]04/04/2017 20:06
quote
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Same here. I loved my charming older home, until we had kids.
We are relocating to a less expensive city, and I want a new home. I want double sinks, walk in closets, laundry located off the master, open concept family/kitchen, a mudroom off an attached garage...
Sign me up.


Yup. Not huge, but not small, I love my 5BR 3.5BA home with a closet the size of a small bedroom with floor to cieling built ins.i too had a small shit shack and almost suffocated with baby #2 came along and couldn't move fast enough.

Just set up the deck and patio today and will enjoy my additional 1,000 sq feet of deck and patio.


I'm thinking of something like this.
Anyone care to guess what it's gonna cost to build? I'm wondering if I can do it under 400k....

https://www.architecturaldesigns.com/house-plans/4-bed-craftsman-beauty-with-exterior-options-500002vv
[Post New]04/04/2017 21:44
quote
Anonymous
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:
Anonymous wrote:Same here. I loved my charming older home, until we had kids.
We are relocating to a less expensive city, and I want a new home. I want double sinks, walk in closets, laundry located off the master, open concept family/kitchen, a mudroom off an attached garage...
Sign me up.


Yup. Not huge, but not small, I love my 5BR 3.5BA home with a closet the size of a small bedroom with floor to cieling built ins.i too had a small shit shack and almost suffocated with baby #2 came along and couldn't move fast enough.

Just set up the deck and patio today and will enjoy my additional 1,000 sq feet of deck and patio.


I'm thinking of something like this.
Anyone care to guess what it's gonna cost to build? I'm wondering if I can do it under 400k....

https://www.architecturaldesigns.com/house-plans/4-bed-craftsman-beauty-with-exterior-options-500002vv


OMG, all those kits look exactly like what's being built in Bethesda and Arlington right now: craftsman on steroids.
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