Yield Management 2026: The Most Absurd Non-Admits

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Every school (other than HYPSM, Duke, Wharton) is admitting the top yielding student over a top student in RD.

Saw this happen with Northwestern, UChicago, Brown, Dartmouth, Vanderbilt, Cornell - from our private this RD cycle. Examine the admits…if your kid is at a small school they know everything about everyone. The admitted kids had a high chance of yielding.

Duke is no different than a school like Brown or Dartmouth imo.

Depends on your HS.

Go look up Duke's admit stats in the common data set and calculate the RD acceptance rate and RD yield over the last few years and you will see they have nothing in common with HYPSM and a lot in common with Brown and Dartmouth. (Of course, Duke refused to fill out the common data set for a while--unlike any other top 20 school--so you will need to skip those years.)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Every school (other than HYPSM, Duke, Wharton) is admitting the top yielding student over a top student in RD.

Saw this happen with Northwestern, UChicago, Brown, Dartmouth, Vanderbilt, Cornell - from our private this RD cycle. Examine the admits…if your kid is at a small school they know everything about everyone. The admitted kids had a high chance of yielding.

Duke is no different than a school like Brown or Dartmouth imo.

Depends on your HS.

Go look up Duke's admit stats in the common data set and calculate the RD acceptance rate and RD yield over the last few years and you will see they have nothing in common with HYPSM and a lot in common with Brown and Dartmouth. (Of course, Duke refused to fill out the common data set for a while--unlike any other top 20 school--so you will need to skip those years.)

At our private Dartmouth and Duke only take the very top of the class. The HYP admits.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just for kicks, please list the basic stats (or whatever else you want) of schools that your kid should have statistically gotten into but didn't.

I'll start:

School: Syracuse
GPA: 3.81 unweighted (DC private)
SAT: 1510

I’d reject this kid too. Why would they be applying to Syracuse??

They spent the time and money to apply. Assume they want to go there.

they just said he did not

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Actually, it does. The process has gotten so ridiculous. "Over-qualified" kids get rejected from schools solely so they can manage their yields. This is not OK. If a kid applies, assume they want to go there. At least waitlist them so they can plead their case if they really are interested.

The process has gotten so over-complicated. Schools should be devoting their financial resources towards education, not paying yield management experts.

No, that's now how it works nor how it should work. It's up to your kid to show demonstrated interest. The OP stated "he wasn't going there anyhow". Well then why the hell did he apply? If it's truly your safety, then you need to convince the school they are your top choice. It's up to the student to do that.

Schools goal is to fill their spots come august with X students. Not X+Y, not X-Z, but X students.
They have learned along the way to identify kids who wont be attending and sometimes they don't accept them. They cannot afford to have less than X students matriculate come august.

ANd for top schools, well tons of highly qualified kids get rejected. If you are smart enough to "be highly qualified", then you are smart enough to understand that you are likely to get a rejection.

Yup, I made sure my kids showed interest in their safeties. Visited, interviewed, went to info sessions online, signed up for mailing lists, opening emails, etc. And there are some great schools out there that are safeties for some. My kids found safeties they did really like and would have been happy to go to.

[Anonymous]

Duke knows it doesn't compete with HYPSM per se; if a student gets into one of those 5 colleges they go there and not Duke.

So with this in mind Duke definitely engages in yield management.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do kids apply to any safety school? If all else fails, it could be the best available option.

Top students shouldn’t use schools like Syracuse and BC as safeties. Even if they get in, there will be very few other strong students at the school, because the school actively turns such students away. They’d be better off at a state flagship where at least there will be top in-state kids.

Please tell us more about BC having very few strong students.

Please tell me how a strong student could possibly get into BC. Everyone in this thread says that their scores and grades disqualify them, because BC cares more about yield!

They get in ED1 and ED2. By regular decision BC only takes middle-of-the-class kids from most privates. They waitlist or decline the strongest kids.

My 4.8 WGPA/1600 SAT MCPS magnet kid was admitted to BC.

If a domestic student, only about 325 students in America have those qualifications. I'm going to assume your son came from a Catholic high school and wants to study business or finance.

[Anonymous]

I've noticed a lot of Duke admits this year from our area on the west coast. Very noticeable. I think word spread that Duke isn't as popular a school to apply to from our area.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do kids apply to any safety school? If all else fails, it could be the best available option.

Top students shouldn’t use schools like Syracuse and BC as safeties. Even if they get in, there will be very few other strong students at the school, because the school actively turns such students away. They’d be better off at a state flagship where at least there will be top in-state kids.

Please tell us more about BC having very few strong students.

Please tell me how a strong student could possibly get into BC. Everyone in this thread says that their scores and grades disqualify them, because BC cares more about yield!

So you think that because SOME high-stats applicants got rejected, we can conclude ALL high-stats got rejected? That’s really bad logic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Just for kicks, please list the basic stats (or whatever else you want) of schools that your kid should have statistically gotten into but didn't.

I'll start:

School: Syracuse
GPA: 3.81 unweighted (DC private)
SAT: 1510

I’d reject this kid too. Why would they be applying to Syracuse??

They spent the time and money to apply. Assume they want to go there.

The money for many is trivial. The time, also. A few tweaks of an essay. For a school like Syracuse, when you get to the 18th college on your common app and you have a couple of free ones to go, why not just apply? Silly, but AO's know this game.

The strong but not T15 private colleges have to play this game, too. You don't think the AO's at BC, Wake, USC, Northeastern, BU, Tufts, Emory, etc. can't sniff out who is really interested in the school from someone like the OP? They track pixels on your email, time spent on their portal, engagement with webinairs, history of your high school, visits, SAT bands who have been accepted before, etc.. They have an entire software system set up to analyze demonstrated interest and likelihood of attending- and it is only getting more sophisticated.

When you get to the next tier below- GWU, Miami, Syracuse, TCU, SMU, Santa Clara they usually can't be (and aren't) that picky. In OPs case, the AO in charge of the file sounds like they should get a bonus.

Can you say more about this? What do you mean they track pixels? How can they tell about time spent on their website?

NP. Slate (by Technolutions) is the application review platform used by most college admission offices. It includes an entire page where the admissions officer, if they choose, can see when you clicked on the college website and what page over a long period of time. It is all tracked. Same for clicks of links in emails. There are interesting youtube training videos on Slate that show this.

More importantly, all the data ends up in the enrollment management consultant's mathematical model, along with numerous other pieces of data like parent education, employment, etc. Test scores or lack thereof, along with financial-related scores, also predict yield.

I don't know if this part is true, but it would be unsurprising if the click tracking fed data about number of times you run the NPCs, look at scholarship and financial aid pages, etc., in their estimate of whether you are seeking aid at a need-blind school. They have all that data. It's just a question of whether and how they use it.

High stats students are less likely to yield at a lower-ranked school. Enrollment management consultants should be able to figure out how many high stats applicants to yield one, in theory, but apparently they either aren't very good at it, or the desire to yield such students is overridden by the pressure to keep the acceptance rate down. Schools that are lower-ranked that commonly offer merit discounts have very, very, very detailed algorithms to help them offer just the right amount while maximizing yield within their budget. It is not a stretch to guess that high stats students would require larger merit discounts to yield.

How do they know which student is on the website looking at NPC?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do kids apply to any safety school? If all else fails, it could be the best available option.

Top students shouldn’t use schools like Syracuse and BC as safeties. Even if they get in, there will be very few other strong students at the school, because the school actively turns such students away. They’d be better off at a state flagship where at least there will be top in-state kids.

Please tell us more about BC having very few strong students.

Please tell me how a strong student could possibly get into BC. Everyone in this thread says that their scores and grades disqualify them, because BC cares more about yield!

They get in ED1 and ED2. By regular decision BC only takes middle-of-the-class kids from most privates. They waitlist or decline the strongest kids.

Ok, and how many top students are committing to BC without first trying for Georgetown, Notre Dame, or some other T25?

That’s your pool of strong students at BC: a small group of kids with the stats to apply higher who were too unambitious to try. It’s a straightforward consequence of the way they conduct admissions. They’re perfectly free to do so, of course, but it traps them in a middle ground with very few strong students.

This is utter nonsense.

[Anonymous]

UNC and UMich let in several top 20% type kids, test optional, from our high school but deferred the valedictorian with a 1550 SAT

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Duke knows it doesn't compete with HYPSM per se; if a student gets into one of those 5 colleges they go there and not Duke.

So with this in mind Duke definitely engages in yield management.

Inclined to agree

-- class of 2030 Duke parent
(didn't apply HYP; denied at Stanford and MIT; accepted Michigan and Northwestern; WL at BU and Case)

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yield protection shouldn't be a thing. It is only a thing bc a high yield helps rankings. And rankings, as we all know, are generally pretty arbitrary and unhelpful.

So yield protection is bad and dumb.

However, having an enthusiastic and committed student body is great -- and it makes sense for institutions to want the students that want to be there most of all.

Personally, I'd really like to see US News take yield rates out of their rankings -- and commit to keeping them out -- so that schools could focus on admitting the students that they'd most like to attend -- and not just the ones that they believe will accept offers. it would go a long way towards making things make sense.

Agree that US News should take it out. It is a thing because applicants/families are so focused on yield and the effect yield has on admissions rate. If a school's yield is low, they have to accept more students the following year. If the admissions rate goes down, people start trashing it and not applying. So colleges yield protect. Everyone needs to change their mentality.

[Anonymous]

Santa Clara. Deferred for yield management.

I will say it’s the only school that happened at. I was pleasantly surprised otherwise.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yield protection shouldn't be a thing. It is only a thing bc a high yield helps rankings. And rankings, as we all know, are generally pretty arbitrary and unhelpful.

So yield protection is bad and dumb.

However, having an enthusiastic and committed student body is great -- and it makes sense for institutions to want the students that want to be there most of all.

Personally, I'd really like to see US News take yield rates out of their rankings -- and commit to keeping them out -- so that schools could focus on admitting the students that they'd most like to attend -- and not just the ones that they believe will accept offers. it would go a long way towards making things make sense.

Agree that US News should take it out. It is a thing because applicants/families are so focused on yield and the effect yield has on admissions rate. If a school's yield is low, they have to accept more students the following year. If the admissions rate goes down, people start trashing it and not applying. So colleges yield protect. Everyone needs to change their mentality.

If yield is low you use the waitlist. Not that hard. Within reason, obviously.