Hurricane Dorian

[Anonymous]

I'm going to preface this by saying First World Problem and that I feel awful for the Bahamas and plan to donate to relief efforts. But we were planning to go to Rehobeth this weekend (Friday-Monday)- would you cancel? The owner of the rental already said we could change to another weekend but between their other bookings and our schedule it wouldn't be feasible until November.

Again, I feel terrible for even asking this. Just trying to decide what to do.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm going to preface this by saying First World Problem and that I feel awful for the Bahamas and plan to donate to relief efforts. But we were planning to go to Rehobeth this weekend (Friday-Monday)- would you cancel? The owner of the rental already said we could change to another weekend but between their other bookings and our schedule it wouldn't be feasible until November.

Again, I feel terrible for even asking this. Just trying to decide what to do.

Rainy on Friday otherwise probably beautiful

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For everyone saying the Bahamas should have evacuated 400,000 people- WHERE TO and HOW? Until pretty close to when the storm hit, many other islands in the Bahamas, as well as much of South and Central FL, were in the cone of uncertainty. Evacuating people from smaller low lying cays was the most feasible thing to do, but even then many residents didn't want to leave.

Nobody has said that. I have said that they should have evacuated more people, as many as they could. There is an enormous difference, and you know it.

You didn't answer my question. With most or all of the Bahamas eventually under a hurricane warning, where were they supposed to evacuate everyone to? Was the U.S. welcoming boats to FL? Does the local govt have access to big seaworthy vessels? This is a really interesting graphic showing how the forecast evolved over the last week- one thing that really stands out to me is how the slowing down of the storm over the Bahamas (which was partly what made this storm so devastating) was not forecast until pretty late in the game.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

Yes, there should be a hurricane emergency alliance system that can commandeer nearby vessels to transport evacuees to the nearest safe port during the emergency period. Just as the law of the sea is that any vessel should help any stranded people in their vicinity, even if it means veering off course.

I never said it would save all lives. Obviously not. But it is perfectly reasonable to implement, especially in an area so close to a major continent. The only thing lacking is political will. The cost is peanuts compared to what the US usually spends. Just like for all international welfare efforts, it is understood that the island to be evacuated it not going to pay for this.

In general, in the field of emergency response, there are many life-saving procedures that could be implemented around the world that people have not yet nailed down politically and logistically. They will be. We are always progressing in that regard. One area of progress is to consider that all humans are worth saving, even if they're poor people in far-away places.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For everyone saying the Bahamas should have evacuated 400,000 people- WHERE TO and HOW? Until pretty close to when the storm hit, many other islands in the Bahamas, as well as much of South and Central FL, were in the cone of uncertainty. Evacuating people from smaller low lying cays was the most feasible thing to do, but even then many residents didn't want to leave.

Nobody has said that. I have said that they should have evacuated more people, as many as they could. There is an enormous difference, and you know it.

You didn't answer my question. With most or all of the Bahamas eventually under a hurricane warning, where were they supposed to evacuate everyone to? Was the U.S. welcoming boats to FL? Does the local govt have access to big seaworthy vessels? This is a really interesting graphic showing how the forecast evolved over the last week- one thing that really stands out to me is how the slowing down of the storm over the Bahamas (which was partly what made this storm so devastating) was not forecast until pretty late in the game.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

Yes, there should be a hurricane emergency alliance system that can commandeer nearby vessels to transport evacuees to the nearest safe port during the emergency period. Just as the law of the sea is that any vessel should help any stranded people in their vicinity, even if it means veering off course.

I never said it would save all lives. Obviously not. But it is perfectly reasonable to implement, especially in an area so close to a major continent. The only thing lacking is political will. The cost is peanuts compared to what the US usually spends. Just like for all international welfare efforts, it is understood that the island to be evacuated it not going to pay for this.

In general, in the field of emergency response, there are many life-saving procedures that could be implemented around the world that people have not yet nailed down politically and logistically. They will be. We are always progressing in that regard. One area of progress is to consider that all humans are worth saving, even if they're poor people in far-away places.

You really can't just boatload people across international borders and drop them off in foreign countries. Natural disasters are awful. People die in developing nations all the time. Especially young children and vulnerable people. Malaria kills many more. The reality is that if you don't have means, you are more likely to die, be that from illness, injury, disaster, malnutrition etc. The kumbaya idea of moving anyone at risk of death to a safe place is not realistic. Dying is part of the cycle of life and disasters will continue to happen.

[Anonymous]

You all are ignoring the extreme uncertainty surrounding these storms. Even 48 hours before landfall, the exact path and intensity is hard to determine. You could very well be moving people from an area that was spared to an area that was more directly impacted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You all are ignoring the extreme uncertainty surrounding these storms. Even 48 hours before landfall, the exact path and intensity is hard to determine. You could very well be moving people from an area that was spared to an area that was more directly impacted.

And once conditions start to deteriorate it can be unsafe to send boats out. IIRC the airlines were offering extra flights days in advance, but of course at some point flights are grounded.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For everyone saying the Bahamas should have evacuated 400,000 people- WHERE TO and HOW? Until pretty close to when the storm hit, many other islands in the Bahamas, as well as much of South and Central FL, were in the cone of uncertainty. Evacuating people from smaller low lying cays was the most feasible thing to do, but even then many residents didn't want to leave.

Nobody has said that. I have said that they should have evacuated more people, as many as they could. There is an enormous difference, and you know it.

You didn't answer my question. With most or all of the Bahamas eventually under a hurricane warning, where were they supposed to evacuate everyone to? Was the U.S. welcoming boats to FL? Does the local govt have access to big seaworthy vessels? This is a really interesting graphic showing how the forecast evolved over the last week- one thing that really stands out to me is how the slowing down of the storm over the Bahamas (which was partly what made this storm so devastating) was not forecast until pretty late in the game.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

Yes, there should be a hurricane emergency alliance system that can commandeer nearby vessels to transport evacuees to the nearest safe port during the emergency period. Just as the law of the sea is that any vessel should help any stranded people in their vicinity, even if it means veering off course.

I never said it would save all lives. Obviously not. But it is perfectly reasonable to implement, especially in an area so close to a major continent. The only thing lacking is political will. The cost is peanuts compared to what the US usually spends. Just like for all international welfare efforts, it is understood that the island to be evacuated it not going to pay for this.

In general, in the field of emergency response, there are many life-saving procedures that could be implemented around the world that people have not yet nailed down politically and logistically. They will be. We are always progressing in that regard. One area of progress is to consider that all humans are worth saving, even if they're poor people in far-away places.

First of all, it is obvious that you have a big heart and the field of disaster response could use someone like you. I do wonder, with a storm like this with so much uncertainty, where the nearest "safe port" would be for Bahamian evacuees, and whether our "American First" nation would have the heart to take them, particularly given that things were looking dire in FL and shelters were probably already reserved for US citizens. I doubt poor countries like the Bahamas have such detailed plans in place and arrangements with other countries, although it would be nice if they did.

[Anonymous]

Was a state of emergency declared in VA or did I hallucinate hearing that on the news in my car? If so, will is affect N. Va at all?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Was a state of emergency declared in VA or did I hallucinate hearing that on the news in my car? If so, will is affect N. Va at all?

Yes and no.

https://www.pilotonline.com/weather/vp-nw-hurricane-dorian-hampton-roads-20190902-e63lo7xc4bcizaujqd4nrnztpy-story.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Was a state of emergency declared in VA or did I hallucinate hearing that on the news in my car? If so, will is affect N. Va at all?

Declaring a state of emergency is a formality. It's necessary to request federal assistance, mobilize national guard if necessary, coordinate between federal, state and local authorities, etc. It doesn't necessary mean there is an imminent threat or danger.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Another Floridian here. We live south of Jax in Ponte Vedra. My in-laws are just outside of Orlando. No one around here is really all that spun up yet. Models are still all over the place like they always are this far out. Most Florida residents are prepared for hurricanes. We know the evacuation zones and routes well. Our homes are built to withstand strong winds. We always have hurricane supplies this time of year. I’ll make a Publix run for more water, snacks, and beer. We’ll ride it out unless it is forecast to hit us directly as a cat 4 or above. My in-laws are further inland. We’ll just head that way if it looks too bad. I hate filling sandbags. Hoping it doesn’t come to that this time.

We are also in Ponte Vedra just west of the intercoastal. Some people get all whipped up, some don’t care. We fall into the category of annoyed that this storm getting in the way of our activities. We are evacuation zone D and we are staying put. It seems like we are being attacked by a turtle.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:For everyone saying the Bahamas should have evacuated 400,000 people- WHERE TO and HOW? Until pretty close to when the storm hit, many other islands in the Bahamas, as well as much of South and Central FL, were in the cone of uncertainty. Evacuating people from smaller low lying cays was the most feasible thing to do, but even then many residents didn't want to leave.

Nobody has said that. I have said that they should have evacuated more people, as many as they could. There is an enormous difference, and you know it.

You didn't answer my question. With most or all of the Bahamas eventually under a hurricane warning, where were they supposed to evacuate everyone to? Was the U.S. welcoming boats to FL? Does the local govt have access to big seaworthy vessels? This is a really interesting graphic showing how the forecast evolved over the last week- one thing that really stands out to me is how the slowing down of the storm over the Bahamas (which was partly what made this storm so devastating) was not forecast until pretty late in the game.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2019/DORIAN_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_line

Yes, there should be a hurricane emergency alliance system that can commandeer nearby vessels to transport evacuees to the nearest safe port during the emergency period. Just as the law of the sea is that any vessel should help any stranded people in their vicinity, even if it means veering off course.

I never said it would save all lives. Obviously not. But it is perfectly reasonable to implement, especially in an area so close to a major continent. The only thing lacking is political will. The cost is peanuts compared to what the US usually spends. Just like for all international welfare efforts, it is understood that the island to be evacuated it not going to pay for this.

In general, in the field of emergency response, there are many life-saving procedures that could be implemented around the world that people have not yet nailed down politically and logistically. They will be. We are always progressing in that regard. One area of progress is to consider that all humans are worth saving, even if they're poor people in far-away places.

Have you seen the news in the last year or two? We're putting babies in cages. There is zero political will for this.

Sorry, I am pretty despondent about the decency of my fellow Americans these days.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Was a state of emergency declared in VA or did I hallucinate hearing that on the news in my car? If so, will is affect N. Va at all?

Declaring a state of emergency is a formality. It's necessary to request federal assistance, mobilize national guard if necessary, coordinate between federal, state and local authorities, etc. It doesn't necessary mean there is an imminent threat or danger.

What are they predicting for DC metro area?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Was a state of emergency declared in VA or did I hallucinate hearing that on the news in my car? If so, will is affect N. Va at all?

Declaring a state of emergency is a formality. It's necessary to request federal assistance, mobilize national guard if necessary, coordinate between federal, state and local authorities, etc. It doesn't necessary mean there is an imminent threat or danger.

What are they predicting for DC metro area?

Right now, nothing. If Dorian changes course west, that might change.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm going to preface this by saying First World Problem and that I feel awful for the Bahamas and plan to donate to relief efforts. But we were planning to go to Rehobeth this weekend (Friday-Monday)- would you cancel? The owner of the rental already said we could change to another weekend but between their other bookings and our schedule it wouldn't be feasible until November.

Again, I feel terrible for even asking this. Just trying to decide what to do.

Rainy on Friday otherwise probably beautiful

+1 for now. We have plans on the Jersey shore this weekend and may leave early Saturday morning instead of Friday.