WashPost: one US college closing per week

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The colleges that will be in trouble:

For-profit colleges everywhere. Their scams have been exposed and their students often can't get aid. Good riddance.

Very small privates with small endowments that, as others have said, started out as: obscure women's colleges, junior colleges, or religiously affiliated with smaller and shrinking denominations that can no longer financially support them.

Larger privates with small endowments that grew recently, and especially those that are in shrinking parts of the US. High Point and Libertv are easy ones to see shrinking. I don't want to pick a fight with Northeastern boosters, but it's hard to see big enrollments continuing there when BU NEU, and maybe BC are all fishing in the same shrinking pool.

Non-flagship state colleges in dying parts of the country will shrink. They have almost no endowments and state legislatures will eventually push for shrinking and consolidating. This process is already underway in PA, with a few of its former teachers colleges (which all greatly expanded over the past 30 or 40 years) being slated to consolidate.

State flagships in declining states will shrink enrollment. They won't disappear, but enrollments will shrink at places like WVU, UMass, UNH, and Minnesota.

Agree with part but not the rest. High Point is growing not shrinking. You will see a larger and larger enrollment there. They are taking from the pool that you correctly say is in trouble. No idea on Liberty.

On Boston -- BC does not fish in the same water as BU never mind NEU. BC overlap are Ivy's, UVA, ND, and the like. If anything NEU is the safety for BC. I don't see NEU in trouble. They have a model and will take from the places below them.

I also do not see those state school you listed in any trouble or cutting back at all. They will all take from the failing pool of places that you listed. UMAss in particular. They will fill seats at the flagship from the non-flagships. Those will take seats from the failing ones.

I have to think that a place like High Point will be in trouble. It's grown like crazy by offering high end amenities to attract full-pay kids who can't get into places like Tulane or Wake Forest. When we go over the demographic cliff, Tulane and Wake Forest will say yes to those less than stellar, but full-pay, students. And if they need a little merit to be more attractive, they've got endowments to get them through the challenge. High Point is already accepting almost 80%. But even if they take everyone, they'll be left with a more needy group of students, and it will be hard to keep up the amenities. And once the amenities and the general sense of affluence are gone, then the magic is gone. And High Point will be in trouble.

High Point Acceptance rate was 50% this year. There pitch is not just nice stuff here but also come here and you will have a job when you come out. They are taking market share. I see them on the good side of this realignment. Also they are conservative in a Reagan not maga way and are pulling a lot of people. Only 20% come from NC. They are pulling out of North East and MidWest.

Can you elaborate?

Their motto is the Premier Life Skills Univeristy. But their second motto is that they are a God, Family, Country school. No overt political stuff at all. But that is the backdrop. Big program for Veteran's Day. President of the college is an immigrant -- came as a college student to the US speaking almost no English and made it. That first gen proud of America vibe. Optimistic view.

My daughter’s small LAC in MA is similar in their approach. It is built into their curriculum for 4 years. It is called “Career Advantage”. There are 5 classes plus at least one required internship.

I think Shenandoah also does this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The colleges that will be in trouble:

For-profit colleges everywhere. Their scams have been exposed and their students often can't get aid. Good riddance.

Very small privates with small endowments that, as others have said, started out as: obscure women's colleges, junior colleges, or religiously affiliated with smaller and shrinking denominations that can no longer financially support them.

Larger privates with small endowments that grew recently, and especially those that are in shrinking parts of the US. High Point and Libertv are easy ones to see shrinking. I don't want to pick a fight with Northeastern boosters, but it's hard to see big enrollments continuing there when BU NEU, and maybe BC are all fishing in the same shrinking pool.

Non-flagship state colleges in dying parts of the country will shrink. They have almost no endowments and state legislatures will eventually push for shrinking and consolidating. This process is already underway in PA, with a few of its former teachers colleges (which all greatly expanded over the past 30 or 40 years) being slated to consolidate.

State flagships in declining states will shrink enrollment. They won't disappear, but enrollments will shrink at places like WVU, UMass, UNH, and Minnesota.

Agree with part but not the rest. High Point is growing not shrinking. You will see a larger and larger enrollment there. They are taking from the pool that you correctly say is in trouble. No idea on Liberty.

On Boston -- BC does not fish in the same water as BU never mind NEU. BC overlap are Ivy's, UVA, ND, and the like. If anything NEU is the safety for BC. I don't see NEU in trouble. They have a model and will take from the places below them.

I also do not see those state school you listed in any trouble or cutting back at all. They will all take from the failing pool of places that you listed. UMAss in particular. They will fill seats at the flagship from the non-flagships. Those will take seats from the failing ones.

I have to think that a place like High Point will be in trouble. It's grown like crazy by offering high end amenities to attract full-pay kids who can't get into places like Tulane or Wake Forest. When we go over the demographic cliff, Tulane and Wake Forest will say yes to those less than stellar, but full-pay, students. And if they need a little merit to be more attractive, they've got endowments to get them through the challenge. High Point is already accepting almost 80%. But even if they take everyone, they'll be left with a more needy group of students, and it will be hard to keep up the amenities. And once the amenities and the general sense of affluence are gone, then the magic is gone. And High Point will be in trouble.

High point was never known for academics. Wake and Tulane are known for decent academics. A lot of small liberal arts colleges in New York and PA will also be in trouble. Schools like Urisnus or Union are on shaky ground as is. With more kids choosing state schools, these schools will not have as many customers. A kid 20 years ago from the Northeast who would have gone to Union or WPI for engineering can get merit at Aubuurn or Purdue.

Why don't you do a little research instead of making up crap and typing it up?

Forbes give financial rankings of A+ to Union, A- to WPI, and B+ to Ursinus. Seems like they can all weather the storm.
But the one you defend, High Point, gets a C.

High Point seems like a house of cards that will eventually collapse.

\

With an endowment of 173+ million? Hardly.

For a school with that many students, High Point's endowment is next to nothing. It should be at least five times that size, preferably ten times that size.

Just for comparison, Southern Methodist University has about the same number of undergraduates (but about twice as big if you include graduate students) and brings in about that much in gifts in a year, and has a $2 billion+ endowment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's because liberal arts degrees are not as popular anymore. The market has shifted.

I don’t think that’s the case. I think it’s simply that the cost of higher education has risen way beyond the rise in the cost of living. It’s simply unaffordable now, regardless of major.

This is why merit aid has become increasingly important at liberal arts schools.

My kids are 5 years apart — my younger currently a senior in HS. Comparing their respective classmates (and parents of classmates), I’ve observed a huge shift in attitudes about “second tier” LACs. Five years ago very few families we knew were discussing schools like Denison, St. Olaf, etc. It is completely different this time around. It’s been really fascinating (and gratifying) to see that change.

But unless these schools have a huge endowment for their size, this becomes a death spiral. This article about Oberlin, is from five years ago, & they were very frank about their money issues. They can't raise tuition, and in fact, are having to offer increased merit aid to attract students, and it's putting them further and further into the hole. Since this article was printed, they made the decision to offer $10k to every student, which means they have effectively reduced their tuition to compete.

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2019/04/18/amid-budget-deficits-and-unfavorable-demographics-oberlin-pushes-do-more-less#:~:text=The%20college%20has%20said%20that,83%20percent%20of%20operating%20revenue.

Ambar, along with Chris Canavan, Oberlin’s board chair, and Chesley Maddox-Dorsey, the vice chair, said the college last year raised enrollment. "But we’ve also had to contribute more financial aid, so the net revenue gain from improved enrollment has been modest. In other words, we are exhausting our pricing power," they wrote.

For new students, fall 2019 tuition and fees, along with room and board, are expected to be $73,694.

Raising tuition, they said, "only increases the demand for financial aid. It also adds to the financial strains on our students and their families, making it harder for us to keep them at Oberlin from the day they matriculate to the day they graduate. This weighs heavily on Oberlin’s finances."

The college has said that if it doesn’t trim expenses, Oberlin’s deficit could reach $162 million within a decade. It relies on net student income for 83 percent of operating revenue.

n its most recent audited financial statement, Oberlin said 97 employees took voluntary buyouts in 2016, with another 17 in 2018. It reported $184 million of outstanding bonded debt.

With an $887.4 million endowment last year, 186-year-old Oberlin is wealthier than most small private institutions, but far behind its wealthier peers -- colleges like Amherst, Swarthmore and Wellesley all reported endowments at or near $2 billion. For the past few years, Oberlin has drawn about 5 percent of its endowment for operating expenses, a standard distribution. Last year, that amounted to about $44.1 million.

In a widely circulated October 2017 letter, Canavan, the board chair, said a group of trustees examining the college’s finances concluded that “we lean too heavily on cash from generosity (past and present gifts, and borrowing against future gifts) and not enough on cash from operations (tuition, room and board).”

He said Oberlin has many generous donors. “But they’re not generous enough to insulate us from the ups and downs of enrollment and retention, or from the broader socioeconomic trends that make it harder for families to afford Oberlin. The conclusion may seem self-evident, but it’s important nevertheless: we can’t stop appealing to generous donors, we need to find ways to boost our operating revenues and we have to reduce our cash needs where possible.”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I read the article and Birmingham Southern is the only one that surprised me. Many of these were tiny women’s colleges - so they never had any endowment to speak of - that went coed in the 70s to survive.

The leadership of Birmingham Southern made some expensive moves to try to save the college that just accelerated its demise, but I the final outcome was probably inevitable. Just as it is with many of these very small, low-endowment colleges.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The colleges that will be in trouble:

For-profit colleges everywhere. Their scams have been exposed and their students often can't get aid. Good riddance.

Very small privates with small endowments that, as others have said, started out as: obscure women's colleges, junior colleges, or religiously affiliated with smaller and shrinking denominations that can no longer financially support them.

Larger privates with small endowments that grew recently, and especially those that are in shrinking parts of the US. High Point and Libertv are easy ones to see shrinking. I don't want to pick a fight with Northeastern boosters, but it's hard to see big enrollments continuing there when BU NEU, and maybe BC are all fishing in the same shrinking pool.

Non-flagship state colleges in dying parts of the country will shrink. They have almost no endowments and state legislatures will eventually push for shrinking and consolidating. This process is already underway in PA, with a few of its former teachers colleges (which all greatly expanded over the past 30 or 40 years) being slated to consolidate.

State flagships in declining states will shrink enrollment. They won't disappear, but enrollments will shrink at places like WVU, UMass, UNH, and Minnesota.

Agree with part but not the rest. High Point is growing not shrinking. You will see a larger and larger enrollment there. They are taking from the pool that you correctly say is in trouble. No idea on Liberty.

On Boston -- BC does not fish in the same water as BU never mind NEU. BC overlap are Ivy's, UVA, ND, and the like. If anything NEU is the safety for BC. I don't see NEU in trouble. They have a model and will take from the places below them.

I also do not see those state school you listed in any trouble or cutting back at all. They will all take from the failing pool of places that you listed. UMAss in particular. They will fill seats at the flagship from the non-flagships. Those will take seats from the failing ones.

I have to think that a place like High Point will be in trouble. It's grown like crazy by offering high end amenities to attract full-pay kids who can't get into places like Tulane or Wake Forest. When we go over the demographic cliff, Tulane and Wake Forest will say yes to those less than stellar, but full-pay, students. And if they need a little merit to be more attractive, they've got endowments to get them through the challenge. High Point is already accepting almost 80%. But even if they take everyone, they'll be left with a more needy group of students, and it will be hard to keep up the amenities. And once the amenities and the general sense of affluence are gone, then the magic is gone. And High Point will be in trouble.

High Point Acceptance rate was 50% this year. There pitch is not just nice stuff here but also come here and you will have a job when you come out. They are taking market share. I see them on the good side of this realignment. Also they are conservative in a Reagan not maga way and are pulling a lot of people. Only 20% come from NC. They are pulling out of North East and MidWest.

Can you elaborate?

Let’s remember that St. Reagan kicked off his 1980 presidential campaign in Philadelphia, Mississippi, the site of the Freedom Summer murders of 3 civil rights activists in 1964. It was a dog whistle, something the GOP continued to do since. RR was the beginning of the end.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The colleges that will be in trouble:

For-profit colleges everywhere. Their scams have been exposed and their students often can't get aid. Good riddance.

Very small privates with small endowments that, as others have said, started out as: obscure women's colleges, junior colleges, or religiously affiliated with smaller and shrinking denominations that can no longer financially support them.

Larger privates with small endowments that grew recently, and especially those that are in shrinking parts of the US. High Point and Libertv are easy ones to see shrinking. I don't want to pick a fight with Northeastern boosters, but it's hard to see big enrollments continuing there when BU NEU, and maybe BC are all fishing in the same shrinking pool.

Non-flagship state colleges in dying parts of the country will shrink. They have almost no endowments and state legislatures will eventually push for shrinking and consolidating. This process is already underway in PA, with a few of its former teachers colleges (which all greatly expanded over the past 30 or 40 years) being slated to consolidate.

State flagships in declining states will shrink enrollment. They won't disappear, but enrollments will shrink at places like WVU, UMass, UNH, and Minnesota.

Agree with part but not the rest. High Point is growing not shrinking. You will see a larger and larger enrollment there. They are taking from the pool that you correctly say is in trouble. No idea on Liberty.

On Boston -- BC does not fish in the same water as BU never mind NEU. BC overlap are Ivy's, UVA, ND, and the like. If anything NEU is the safety for BC. I don't see NEU in trouble. They have a model and will take from the places below them.

I also do not see those state school you listed in any trouble or cutting back at all. They will all take from the failing pool of places that you listed. UMAss in particular. They will fill seats at the flagship from the non-flagships. Those will take seats from the failing ones.

I have to think that a place like High Point will be in trouble. It's grown like crazy by offering high end amenities to attract full-pay kids who can't get into places like Tulane or Wake Forest. When we go over the demographic cliff, Tulane and Wake Forest will say yes to those less than stellar, but full-pay, students. And if they need a little merit to be more attractive, they've got endowments to get them through the challenge. High Point is already accepting almost 80%. But even if they take everyone, they'll be left with a more needy group of students, and it will be hard to keep up the amenities. And once the amenities and the general sense of affluence are gone, then the magic is gone. And High Point will be in trouble.

High Point Acceptance rate was 50% this year. There pitch is not just nice stuff here but also come here and you will have a job when you come out. They are taking market share. I see them on the good side of this realignment. Also they are conservative in a Reagan not maga way and are pulling a lot of people. Only 20% come from NC. They are pulling out of North East and MidWest.

Can you elaborate?

Let’s remember that St. Reagan kicked off his 1980 presidential campaign in Philadelphia, Mississippi, the site of the Freedom Summer murders of 3 civil rights activists in 1964. It was a dog whistle, something the GOP continued to do since. RR was the beginning of the end.

Begining of the end of what? Race relations? So 2024 is worse than 1980? You have no idea what you are talking about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The colleges that will be in trouble:

For-profit colleges everywhere. Their scams have been exposed and their students often can't get aid. Good riddance.

Very small privates with small endowments that, as others have said, started out as: obscure women's colleges, junior colleges, or religiously affiliated with smaller and shrinking denominations that can no longer financially support them.

Larger privates with small endowments that grew recently, and especially those that are in shrinking parts of the US. High Point and Libertv are easy ones to see shrinking. I don't want to pick a fight with Northeastern boosters, but it's hard to see big enrollments continuing there when BU NEU, and maybe BC are all fishing in the same shrinking pool.

Non-flagship state colleges in dying parts of the country will shrink. They have almost no endowments and state legislatures will eventually push for shrinking and consolidating. This process is already underway in PA, with a few of its former teachers colleges (which all greatly expanded over the past 30 or 40 years) being slated to consolidate.

State flagships in declining states will shrink enrollment. They won't disappear, but enrollments will shrink at places like WVU, UMass, UNH, and Minnesota.

Agree with part but not the rest. High Point is growing not shrinking. You will see a larger and larger enrollment there. They are taking from the pool that you correctly say is in trouble. No idea on Liberty.

On Boston -- BC does not fish in the same water as BU never mind NEU. BC overlap are Ivy's, UVA, ND, and the like. If anything NEU is the safety for BC. I don't see NEU in trouble. They have a model and will take from the places below them.

I also do not see those state school you listed in any trouble or cutting back at all. They will all take from the failing pool of places that you listed. UMAss in particular. They will fill seats at the flagship from the non-flagships. Those will take seats from the failing ones.

I have to think that a place like High Point will be in trouble. It's grown like crazy by offering high end amenities to attract full-pay kids who can't get into places like Tulane or Wake Forest. When we go over the demographic cliff, Tulane and Wake Forest will say yes to those less than stellar, but full-pay, students. And if they need a little merit to be more attractive, they've got endowments to get them through the challenge. High Point is already accepting almost 80%. But even if they take everyone, they'll be left with a more needy group of students, and it will be hard to keep up the amenities. And once the amenities and the general sense of affluence are gone, then the magic is gone. And High Point will be in trouble.

High point was never known for academics. Wake and Tulane are known for decent academics. A lot of small liberal arts colleges in New York and PA will also be in trouble. Schools like Urisnus or Union are on shaky ground as is. With more kids choosing state schools, these schools will not have as many customers. A kid 20 years ago from the Northeast who would have gone to Union or WPI for engineering can get merit at Aubuurn or Purdue.

Why don't you do a little research instead of making up crap and typing it up?

Forbes give financial rankings of A+ to Union, A- to WPI, and B+ to Ursinus. Seems like they can all weather the storm.
But the one you defend, High Point, gets a C.

This. High Point already has shaky finances yet they are announcing more expansion plans. The emperor wears no clothes there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I read the article and Birmingham Southern is the only one that surprised me. Many of these were tiny women’s colleges - so they never had any endowment to speak of - that went coed in the 70s to survive.

I don’t see how the size of the women who attend a particular college is relevant.

even funnier because some idiot thought you were serious.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is why most people only want to go to a T20 school.

Says the person who must think there are only 100 schools in the country.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's because liberal arts degrees are not as popular anymore. The market has shifted.

I don’t think that’s the case. I think it’s simply that the cost of higher education has risen way beyond the rise in the cost of living. It’s simply unaffordable now, regardless of major.

This is why merit aid has become increasingly important at liberal arts schools.

My kids are 5 years apart — my younger currently a senior in HS. Comparing their respective classmates (and parents of classmates), I’ve observed a huge shift in attitudes about “second tier” LACs. Five years ago very few families we knew were discussing schools like Denison, St. Olaf, etc. It is completely different this time around. It’s been really fascinating (and gratifying) to see that change.

But unless these schools have a huge endowment for their size, this becomes a death spiral. This article about Oberlin, is from five years ago, & they were very frank about their money issues. They can't raise tuition, and in fact, are having to offer increased merit aid to attract students, and it's putting them further and further into the hole. Since this article was printed, they made the decision to offer $10k to every student, which means they have effectively reduced their tuition to compete.

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2019/04/18/amid-budget-deficits-and-unfavorable-demographics-oberlin-pushes-do-more-less#:~:text=The%20college%20has%20said%20that,83%20percent%20of%20operating%20revenue.

Ambar, along with Chris Canavan, Oberlin’s board chair, and Chesley Maddox-Dorsey, the vice chair, said the college last year raised enrollment. "But we’ve also had to contribute more financial aid, so the net revenue gain from improved enrollment has been modest. In other words, we are exhausting our pricing power," they wrote.

For new students, fall 2019 tuition and fees, along with room and board, are expected to be $73,694.

Raising tuition, they said, "only increases the demand for financial aid. It also adds to the financial strains on our students and their families, making it harder for us to keep them at Oberlin from the day they matriculate to the day they graduate. This weighs heavily on Oberlin’s finances."

The college has said that if it doesn’t trim expenses, Oberlin’s deficit could reach $162 million within a decade. It relies on net student income for 83 percent of operating revenue.

n its most recent audited financial statement, Oberlin said 97 employees took voluntary buyouts in 2016, with another 17 in 2018. It reported $184 million of outstanding bonded debt.

With an $887.4 million endowment last year, 186-year-old Oberlin is wealthier than most small private institutions, but far behind its wealthier peers -- colleges like Amherst, Swarthmore and Wellesley all reported endowments at or near $2 billion. For the past few years, Oberlin has drawn about 5 percent of its endowment for operating expenses, a standard distribution. Last year, that amounted to about $44.1 million.

In a widely circulated October 2017 letter, Canavan, the board chair, said a group of trustees examining the college’s finances concluded that “we lean too heavily on cash from generosity (past and present gifts, and borrowing against future gifts) and not enough on cash from operations (tuition, room and board).”

He said Oberlin has many generous donors. “But they’re not generous enough to insulate us from the ups and downs of enrollment and retention, or from the broader socioeconomic trends that make it harder for families to afford Oberlin. The conclusion may seem self-evident, but it’s important nevertheless: we can’t stop appealing to generous donors, we need to find ways to boost our operating revenues and we have to reduce our cash needs where possible.”

Oberlin's fine at this point.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The colleges that will be in trouble:

For-profit colleges everywhere. Their scams have been exposed and their students often can't get aid. Good riddance.

Very small privates with small endowments that, as others have said, started out as: obscure women's colleges, junior colleges, or religiously affiliated with smaller and shrinking denominations that can no longer financially support them.

Larger privates with small endowments that grew recently, and especially those that are in shrinking parts of the US. High Point and Libertv are easy ones to see shrinking. I don't want to pick a fight with Northeastern boosters, but it's hard to see big enrollments continuing there when BU NEU, and maybe BC are all fishing in the same shrinking pool.

Non-flagship state colleges in dying parts of the country will shrink. They have almost no endowments and state legislatures will eventually push for shrinking and consolidating. This process is already underway in PA, with a few of its former teachers colleges (which all greatly expanded over the past 30 or 40 years) being slated to consolidate.

State flagships in declining states will shrink enrollment. They won't disappear, but enrollments will shrink at places like WVU, UMass, UNH, and Minnesota.

Agree with part but not the rest. High Point is growing not shrinking. You will see a larger and larger enrollment there. They are taking from the pool that you correctly say is in trouble. No idea on Liberty.

On Boston -- BC does not fish in the same water as BU never mind NEU. BC overlap are Ivy's, UVA, ND, and the like. If anything NEU is the safety for BC. I don't see NEU in trouble. They have a model and will take from the places below them.

I also do not see those state school you listed in any trouble or cutting back at all. They will all take from the failing pool of places that you listed. UMAss in particular. They will fill seats at the flagship from the non-flagships. Those will take seats from the failing ones.

I have to think that a place like High Point will be in trouble. It's grown like crazy by offering high end amenities to attract full-pay kids who can't get into places like Tulane or Wake Forest. When we go over the demographic cliff, Tulane and Wake Forest will say yes to those less than stellar, but full-pay, students. And if they need a little merit to be more attractive, they've got endowments to get them through the challenge. High Point is already accepting almost 80%. But even if they take everyone, they'll be left with a more needy group of students, and it will be hard to keep up the amenities. And once the amenities and the general sense of affluence are gone, then the magic is gone. And High Point will be in trouble.

High point was never known for academics. Wake and Tulane are known for decent academics. A lot of small liberal arts colleges in New York and PA will also be in trouble. Schools like Urisnus or Union are on shaky ground as is. With more kids choosing state schools, these schools will not have as many customers. A kid 20 years ago from the Northeast who would have gone to Union or WPI for engineering can get merit at Aubuurn or Purdue.

Why don't you do a little research instead of making up crap and typing it up?

Forbes give financial rankings of A+ to Union, A- to WPI, and B+ to Ursinus. Seems like they can all weather the storm.
But the one you defend, High Point, gets a C.

This. High Point already has shaky finances yet they are announcing more expansion plans. The emperor wears no clothes there.

A C is not shaky on that list. What High Point avoids is giving lots of merit aid to take their income down. They will be fine. They came up with a product that sells. They will be fine. That is what the Ivys have. A product that sells. That is what state flagships have. The schools that will close are the ones that have no real product to sell. Nothing that makes them different.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The colleges that will be in trouble:

For-profit colleges everywhere. Their scams have been exposed and their students often can't get aid. Good riddance.

Very small privates with small endowments that, as others have said, started out as: obscure women's colleges, junior colleges, or religiously affiliated with smaller and shrinking denominations that can no longer financially support them.

Larger privates with small endowments that grew recently, and especially those that are in shrinking parts of the US. High Point and Libertv are easy ones to see shrinking. I don't want to pick a fight with Northeastern boosters, but it's hard to see big enrollments continuing there when BU NEU, and maybe BC are all fishing in the same shrinking pool.

Non-flagship state colleges in dying parts of the country will shrink. They have almost no endowments and state legislatures will eventually push for shrinking and consolidating. This process is already underway in PA, with a few of its former teachers colleges (which all greatly expanded over the past 30 or 40 years) being slated to consolidate.

State flagships in declining states will shrink enrollment. They won't disappear, but enrollments will shrink at places like WVU, UMass, UNH, and Minnesota.

Agree with part but not the rest. High Point is growing not shrinking. You will see a larger and larger enrollment there. They are taking from the pool that you correctly say is in trouble. No idea on Liberty.

On Boston -- BC does not fish in the same water as BU never mind NEU. BC overlap are Ivy's, UVA, ND, and the like. If anything NEU is the safety for BC. I don't see NEU in trouble. They have a model and will take from the places below them.

I also do not see those state school you listed in any trouble or cutting back at all. They will all take from the failing pool of places that you listed. UMAss in particular. They will fill seats at the flagship from the non-flagships. Those will take seats from the failing ones.

I have to think that a place like High Point will be in trouble. It's grown like crazy by offering high end amenities to attract full-pay kids who can't get into places like Tulane or Wake Forest. When we go over the demographic cliff, Tulane and Wake Forest will say yes to those less than stellar, but full-pay, students. And if they need a little merit to be more attractive, they've got endowments to get them through the challenge. High Point is already accepting almost 80%. But even if they take everyone, they'll be left with a more needy group of students, and it will be hard to keep up the amenities. And once the amenities and the general sense of affluence are gone, then the magic is gone. And High Point will be in trouble.

High point was never known for academics. Wake and Tulane are known for decent academics. A lot of small liberal arts colleges in New York and PA will also be in trouble. Schools like Urisnus or Union are on shaky ground as is. With more kids choosing state schools, these schools will not have as many customers. A kid 20 years ago from the Northeast who would have gone to Union or WPI for engineering can get merit at Aubuurn or Purdue.

Why don't you do a little research instead of making up crap and typing it up?

Forbes give financial rankings of A+ to Union, A- to WPI, and B+ to Ursinus. Seems like they can all weather the storm.
But the one you defend, High Point, gets a C.

This. High Point already has shaky finances yet they are announcing more expansion plans. The emperor wears no clothes there.

A C is not shaky on that list. What High Point avoids is giving lots of merit aid to take their income down. They will be fine. They came up with a product that sells. They will be fine. That is what the Ivys have. A product that sells. That is what state flagships have. The schools that will close are the ones that have no real product to sell. Nothing that makes them different.

High Point's product might not sell as well after the demographic cliff when its customers will have more options. Ivies will always have customers because they are elite, as will flagships, because they are cheap. High Point is expensive and not elite, making it more prone to struggling if the market changes, and we already know the demographic cliff is going to change the market.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It's because liberal arts degrees are not as popular anymore. The market has shifted.

I don’t think that’s the case. I think it’s simply that the cost of higher education has risen way beyond the rise in the cost of living. It’s simply unaffordable now, regardless of major.

This is why merit aid has become increasingly important at liberal arts schools.

My kids are 5 years apart — my younger currently a senior in HS. Comparing their respective classmates (and parents of classmates), I’ve observed a huge shift in attitudes about “second tier” LACs. Five years ago very few families we knew were discussing schools like Denison, St. Olaf, etc. It is completely different this time around. It’s been really fascinating (and gratifying) to see that change.

But unless these schools have a huge endowment for their size, this becomes a death spiral. This article about Oberlin, is from five years ago, & they were very frank about their money issues. They can't raise tuition, and in fact, are having to offer increased merit aid to attract students, and it's putting them further and further into the hole. Since this article was printed, they made the decision to offer $10k to every student, which means they have effectively reduced their tuition to compete.

https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2019/04/18/amid-budget-deficits-and-unfavorable-demographics-oberlin-pushes-do-more-less#:~:text=The%20college%20has%20said%20that,83%20percent%20of%20operating%20revenue.

Ambar, along with Chris Canavan, Oberlin’s board chair, and Chesley Maddox-Dorsey, the vice chair, said the college last year raised enrollment. "But we’ve also had to contribute more financial aid, so the net revenue gain from improved enrollment has been modest. In other words, we are exhausting our pricing power," they wrote.

For new students, fall 2019 tuition and fees, along with room and board, are expected to be $73,694.

Raising tuition, they said, "only increases the demand for financial aid. It also adds to the financial strains on our students and their families, making it harder for us to keep them at Oberlin from the day they matriculate to the day they graduate. This weighs heavily on Oberlin’s finances."

The college has said that if it doesn’t trim expenses, Oberlin’s deficit could reach $162 million within a decade. It relies on net student income for 83 percent of operating revenue.

n its most recent audited financial statement, Oberlin said 97 employees took voluntary buyouts in 2016, with another 17 in 2018. It reported $184 million of outstanding bonded debt.

With an $887.4 million endowment last year, 186-year-old Oberlin is wealthier than most small private institutions, but far behind its wealthier peers -- colleges like Amherst, Swarthmore and Wellesley all reported endowments at or near $2 billion. For the past few years, Oberlin has drawn about 5 percent of its endowment for operating expenses, a standard distribution. Last year, that amounted to about $44.1 million.

In a widely circulated October 2017 letter, Canavan, the board chair, said a group of trustees examining the college’s finances concluded that “we lean too heavily on cash from generosity (past and present gifts, and borrowing against future gifts) and not enough on cash from operations (tuition, room and board).”

He said Oberlin has many generous donors. “But they’re not generous enough to insulate us from the ups and downs of enrollment and retention, or from the broader socioeconomic trends that make it harder for families to afford Oberlin. The conclusion may seem self-evident, but it’s important nevertheless: we can’t stop appealing to generous donors, we need to find ways to boost our operating revenues and we have to reduce our cash needs where possible.”

Did you realize that you cut and pasted an outdated article, from five years ago, before Oberlin executed its financial plan under what was then their still-new president, and is now a stellar higher education leader?

Here are the facts. Oberlin has the highest grade Forbes gives for finances of colleges, an A+ (4.5 out of 4.5), its endowment is about 150% of what it was then (which is a big endowment, particularly on a per student basis), and it's enrollment is at an all time high. As the Forbes (and Moodys and S&P as well FWIW) rating recognizes, it is an exceedingly well managed, financially successful college.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The colleges that will be in trouble:

For-profit colleges everywhere. Their scams have been exposed and their students often can't get aid. Good riddance.

Very small privates with small endowments that, as others have said, started out as: obscure women's colleges, junior colleges, or religiously affiliated with smaller and shrinking denominations that can no longer financially support them.

Larger privates with small endowments that grew recently, and especially those that are in shrinking parts of the US. High Point and Libertv are easy ones to see shrinking. I don't want to pick a fight with Northeastern boosters, but it's hard to see big enrollments continuing there when BU NEU, and maybe BC are all fishing in the same shrinking pool.

Non-flagship state colleges in dying parts of the country will shrink. They have almost no endowments and state legislatures will eventually push for shrinking and consolidating. This process is already underway in PA, with a few of its former teachers colleges (which all greatly expanded over the past 30 or 40 years) being slated to consolidate.

State flagships in declining states will shrink enrollment. They won't disappear, but enrollments will shrink at places like WVU, UMass, UNH, and Minnesota.

Agree with part but not the rest. High Point is growing not shrinking. You will see a larger and larger enrollment there. They are taking from the pool that you correctly say is in trouble. No idea on Liberty.

On Boston -- BC does not fish in the same water as BU never mind NEU. BC overlap are Ivy's, UVA, ND, and the like. If anything NEU is the safety for BC. I don't see NEU in trouble. They have a model and will take from the places below them.

I also do not see those state school you listed in any trouble or cutting back at all. They will all take from the failing pool of places that you listed. UMAss in particular. They will fill seats at the flagship from the non-flagships. Those will take seats from the failing ones.

I have to think that a place like High Point will be in trouble. It's grown like crazy by offering high end amenities to attract full-pay kids who can't get into places like Tulane or Wake Forest. When we go over the demographic cliff, Tulane and Wake Forest will say yes to those less than stellar, but full-pay, students. And if they need a little merit to be more attractive, they've got endowments to get them through the challenge. High Point is already accepting almost 80%. But even if they take everyone, they'll be left with a more needy group of students, and it will be hard to keep up the amenities. And once the amenities and the general sense of affluence are gone, then the magic is gone. And High Point will be in trouble.

High Point Acceptance rate was 50% this year. There pitch is not just nice stuff here but also come here and you will have a job when you come out. They are taking market share. I see them on the good side of this realignment. Also they are conservative in a Reagan not maga way and are pulling a lot of people. Only 20% come from NC. They are pulling out of North East and MidWest.

That's not true. High Point's acceptance rate is 79%. And more than 1/3 of the freshmen drop out before graduation!

Those are problem numbers when the tuition is high and the endowment is small.

[Anonymous]

It's price.

You just can't charge 70, 80, 90 grand and not be a name school.

At this price point, it's state flagships, top 50 privates, and maybe 10 SLACs. Absolutely every other school is going to have a hard time going forward. Changing demographics, fewer students, unwillingness to take out loans at these price points, etc. They're not all going to close, but they will become weaker if they haven't been planning for things over the past 15 years. It's been predictable forever.