Jamie Dimon thinks HQ2 will bring 100k jobs

[Anonymous]

I'm genuinely confused as to why so much of this thread is discussing whether or not Amazon employees will be able to afford 1M+ homes. That's not how real estate appreciation works, as any study of any other big city will show you.

The fact that most of the employees WONT be able to afford 1M+ homes is exactly why condos and houses in all of South Arlington will see significant appreciation. If all the new employees were rich, yes, they'd probably live in the greater DC metro area in more appealing neighborhoods. But what they'll be able to afford is apartments and condos in the most affordable area closest to their work (this is also true for the secondary jobs Amazon will create, for restaurants, etc).

There is a ton of open space on Columbia Pike, for example, that is already being filled with market-rate apartments and condos (despite the press the affordable housing builds get). As more people move in, it will make that area more urban, and that density will support more businesses (coffee shops, grocery stores, gyms, etc) that will make the area more appealing for SFH owners. And THAT will push up the value of the SFHs in nearby neighborhoods.

Increased demand at just about any price point leads to an increase in overall prices, and increased density (which increases businesses, increases walkability) makes neighborhoods more appealing at all price points.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.

+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.

Yea, but their life is going to be a living hell. I already have people who commute in fro MoCo on my team and they are 1.5hrs in the car already. These marylanders are already so priced out, hopefully for their sake MD can try to figure out how to attract business and not drive it away.

No, they're not priced out, some people just prefer Maryland (which has equally expensive real estate as VA to date) for whatever reason. I have a neighbor in Chevy Chase who works at AWS. She says it takes about 30-40 minutes driving to AWS. That's not a bad commute (same as my commute to DC).

Which AWS are you imagining? I work in Herndon next to AWS and it's not taking ANYONE from any part of MoCo 40min to get in, unless it's a Sunday.

You're nuts. It takes 40min just to get from from the toll booth over the ALB.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.

+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.

Yea, but their life is going to be a living hell. I already have people who commute in fro MoCo on my team and they are 1.5hrs in the car already. These marylanders are already so priced out, hopefully for their sake MD can try to figure out how to attract business and not drive it away.

No, they're not priced out, some people just prefer Maryland (which has equally expensive real estate as VA to date) for whatever reason. I have a neighbor in Chevy Chase who works at AWS. She says it takes about 30-40 minutes driving to AWS. That's not a bad commute (same as my commute to DC).

I'm sure some people prefer MD, but it is a simple fact that Virginia real estate prices are higher in Fairfax and Arlington than MOCO in both the average sale price and cost per square foot. Additionally Fairfax and Arlington are appreciating at a faster rate. Moco isn't even keeping up at the same appreciation rate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Feels just like 2007. Can't wait...

A 100,000 jobs at once leading to a tidal load of newly UC contracters and house purchases? I think you're thinking of 9/11/2001. D.C.'s boom was unprecedented and barely touched even during the 08 downturn which is why everyone moved here (including myself).

Just getting even better now.

You're right; this time it's different!

I see what you are trying to do.

I’m actually saying it’s exactly the same, there is exuberance but prices like last time will not drop appreciably. Same is as same was.

I mean two GS15s can afford a $1M house, so lump all the bigger money jobs, yeah it’s expensive

PP here. I think you sort of saw what I was trying to do, but not really. To believe that any area of the country is immune to a recession or recessionary trends is foolish. I'm bullish on the DC area, but I am still realistic about potential downsides. We all know the impact that an election and a new administration can have. What if a candidate comes in and - in the face of continued 1 or 2 billion dollar annual deficits - proposes a radical overhaul to the Federal bureaucracy? i.e. they want to relocate a sizable % of the DC area workforce to other states (so it becomes pork and the House and Senate jump on board). After this last election, I'd say that anything is possible. You can be bullish and not delusional. I always read boosters post comparisons to SF. Anyone who thinks DC will become the next San Francisco, doesn't understand how San Francisco really works, and all it does it create an atmosphere of irrational exuberance on the one hand and credible skepticism on the other.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Feels just like 2007. Can't wait...

A 100,000 jobs at once leading to a tidal load of newly UC contracters and house purchases? I think you're thinking of 9/11/2001. D.C.'s boom was unprecedented and barely touched even during the 08 downturn which is why everyone moved here (including myself).

Just getting even better now.

You're right; this time it's different!

I see what you are trying to do.

I’m actually saying it’s exactly the same, there is exuberance but prices like last time will not drop appreciably. Same is as same was.

I mean two GS15s can afford a $1M house, so lump all the bigger money jobs, yeah it’s expensive

PP here. I think you sort of saw what I was trying to do, but not really. To believe that any area of the country is immune to a recession or recessionary trends is foolish. I'm bullish on the DC area, but I am still realistic about potential downsides. We all know the impact that an election and a new administration can have. What if a candidate comes in and - in the face of continued 1 or 2 billion dollar annual deficits - proposes a radical overhaul to the Federal bureaucracy? i.e. they want to relocate a sizable % of the DC area workforce to other states (so it becomes pork and the House and Senate jump on board). After this last election, I'd say that anything is possible. You can be bullish and not delusional. I always read boosters post comparisons to SF. Anyone who thinks DC will become the next San Francisco, doesn't understand how San Francisco really works, and all it does it create an atmosphere of irrational exuberance on the one hand and credible skepticism on the other.

People were calling for an economic collapse under trump. I have some.of the funnier predictions bookmarked. People are still hoping and praying for that collapse. However, the fact is, the market is much bigger than a POTUS.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.

+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.

Yea, but their life is going to be a living hell. I already have people who commute in fro MoCo on my team and they are 1.5hrs in the car already. These marylanders are already so priced out, hopefully for their sake MD can try to figure out how to attract business and not drive it away.

No, they're not priced out, some people just prefer Maryland (which has equally expensive real estate as VA to date) for whatever reason. I have a neighbor in Chevy Chase who works at AWS. She says it takes about 30-40 minutes driving to AWS. That's not a bad commute (same as my commute to DC).

30 minutes from Chevy Chase MD? In rush hour? Ha. Ha-ha. Hahahaha...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.

+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.

Yea, but their life is going to be a living hell. I already have people who commute in fro MoCo on my team and they are 1.5hrs in the car already. These marylanders are already so priced out, hopefully for their sake MD can try to figure out how to attract business and not drive it away.

No, they're not priced out, some people just prefer Maryland (which has equally expensive real estate as VA to date) for whatever reason. I have a neighbor in Chevy Chase who works at AWS. She says it takes about 30-40 minutes driving to AWS. That's not a bad commute (same as my commute to DC).

That's gotta be on a good day. One little fender bender, and we're closer to 2 hours. Trust me, I know.

You’re assuming everyone in Maryland needs to drive or lives in MoCo. A train ride from Takoma, Silver Spring or Forest Glen to Amazon is around 30 to 40 minutes...the same or less time as it would be from Vienna or anywhere on the Silver Line from Tysons or further out. Anyone coming from the Green Line stations in PG would have a similar commute.

As for driving, if you live in Fort Washington or somewhere near there it is a much shorter drive to Crystal City than coming from a lot of Fairfax (Reston, Oakton, etc) and you don’t have to pay tolls.

This sounds like the same crowd of MoCo boosters who swore up & down for months that Amazon would NEVER choose VA over MD. Now they're trying to convince everyone that it doesn't matter, and a big chunk of HQ2 workers will choose to live in Kensington, Silver Spring, Potomac etc etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.

+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.

Yea, but their life is going to be a living hell. I already have people who commute in fro MoCo on my team and they are 1.5hrs in the car already. These marylanders are already so priced out, hopefully for their sake MD can try to figure out how to attract business and not drive it away.

No, they're not priced out, some people just prefer Maryland (which has equally expensive real estate as VA to date) for whatever reason. I have a neighbor in Chevy Chase who works at AWS. She says it takes about 30-40 minutes driving to AWS. That's not a bad commute (same as my commute to DC).

That's gotta be on a good day. One little fender bender, and we're closer to 2 hours. Trust me, I know.

You’re assuming everyone in Maryland needs to drive or lives in MoCo. A train ride from Takoma, Silver Spring or Forest Glen to Amazon is around 30 to 40 minutes...the same or less time as it would be from Vienna or anywhere on the Silver Line from Tysons or further out. Anyone coming from the Green Line stations in PG would have a similar commute.

As for driving, if you live in Fort Washington or somewhere near there it is a much shorter drive to Crystal City than coming from a lot of Fairfax (Reston, Oakton, etc) and you don’t have to pay tolls.

This sounds like the same crowd of MoCo boosters who swore up & down for months that Amazon would NEVER choose VA over MD. Now they're trying to convince everyone that it doesn't matter, and a big chunk of HQ2 workers will choose to live in Kensington, Silver Spring, Potomac etc etc.

Many are already living in Moco and other areas further out in VA and MD. Many commute in as needed. I didn't think they would choose MD as MD is not business friendly. Amazon is going to pull from MD/VA/DC/WV and other areas and many will just commute rather than moving.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.

+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.

Yea, but their life is going to be a living hell. I already have people who commute in fro MoCo on my team and they are 1.5hrs in the car already. These marylanders are already so priced out, hopefully for their sake MD can try to figure out how to attract business and not drive it away.

No, they're not priced out, some people just prefer Maryland (which has equally expensive real estate as VA to date) for whatever reason. I have a neighbor in Chevy Chase who works at AWS. She says it takes about 30-40 minutes driving to AWS. That's not a bad commute (same as my commute to DC).

30 minutes from Chevy Chase MD? In rush hour? Ha. Ha-ha. Hahahaha...

She's lying. It takes 45-90 minutes, longer if there is an accident or snow depending on when you go. You have to leave by 3/3:30 to beat traffic and go in at 7 or so. And, she must have a really crappy supervisor if she's commuting daily as they have the set up to work at home.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Feels just like 2007. Can't wait...

A 100,000 jobs at once leading to a tidal load of newly UC contracters and house purchases? I think you're thinking of 9/11/2001. D.C.'s boom was unprecedented and barely touched even during the 08 downturn which is why everyone moved here (including myself).

Just getting even better now.

You're right; this time it's different!

I see what you are trying to do.

I’m actually saying it’s exactly the same, there is exuberance but prices like last time will not drop appreciably. Same is as same was.

I mean two GS15s can afford a $1M house, so lump all the bigger money jobs, yeah it’s expensive

PP here. I think you sort of saw what I was trying to do, but not really. To believe that any area of the country is immune to a recession or recessionary trends is foolish. I'm bullish on the DC area, but I am still realistic about potential downsides. We all know the impact that an election and a new administration can have. What if a candidate comes in and - in the face of continued 1 or 2 billion dollar annual deficits - proposes a radical overhaul to the Federal bureaucracy? i.e. they want to relocate a sizable % of the DC area workforce to other states (so it becomes pork and the House and Senate jump on board). After this last election, I'd say that anything is possible. You can be bullish and not delusional. I always read boosters post comparisons to SF. Anyone who thinks DC will become the next San Francisco, doesn't understand how San Francisco really works, and all it does it create an atmosphere of irrational exuberance on the one hand and credible skepticism on the other.

Depending on the job, they may be able to work remotely and just fly/drive into VA as needed, just like many do in Seattle.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.

+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.

Per the JBG Smith negotiators that work with Amazon, roughly 80% of Amazon employees walk or take mass transit to work each day. So VRE and metro are possible but they are expecting the lions share to live inside the beltway and closer to National Landing

Yea, ok... per those folks who are not actually doing the commute or work. No way my spouse could walk or talk mass transit to his Amazon job. Nor, would we ever move to that part of VA for a lot of reasons, including money. Everyone we know lives far out VA and commutes in as needed.

Then I guess you’ll see your spouse on weekends? You’re making a choice to live far away from work. If you want a life outside of work, you live closer in and compromise on space and/or schools to be able to afford it, like the rest of us. Or your spouse should look for a job closer to where you live. Driving in isn’t going to get any easier or better, so you have some thinking to do. If you hurry, you can probably afford a nice SFH home in PG county inside the Beltway along the Green/Yellow line that’s close to all the amenities around College Park/Hyattsville and transit.

Do you even know what you are talking about. We have a house. I see my spouse all the time. My spouse can work at home a few days a week and its a very flexible job. I see my spouse more now than when they were working at another job closer. It makes no sense to move to VA just for a job as most people don't stay at jobs more than a few years so if we stay where we are at then there are more options as you can work in MD/DC/VA vs. if we moved to VA, it would be much harder to commute from VA to MD. Living in College Park to VA makes absolutely no sense. I don't get all the Amazon hate. Its no different from any other company and your experience is mainly dependent on your supervisor and team. However, Amazon gives contracts for a few years so depending on your renewal, many don't stay.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.

+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.

Yea, but their life is going to be a living hell. I already have people who commute in fro MoCo on my team and they are 1.5hrs in the car already. These marylanders are already so priced out, hopefully for their sake MD can try to figure out how to attract business and not drive it away.

No, they're not priced out, some people just prefer Maryland (which has equally expensive real estate as VA to date) for whatever reason. I have a neighbor in Chevy Chase who works at AWS. She says it takes about 30-40 minutes driving to AWS. That's not a bad commute (same as my commute to DC).

That's gotta be on a good day. One little fender bender, and we're closer to 2 hours. Trust me, I know.

You’re assuming everyone in Maryland needs to drive or lives in MoCo. A train ride from Takoma, Silver Spring or Forest Glen to Amazon is around 30 to 40 minutes...the same or less time as it would be from Vienna or anywhere on the Silver Line from Tysons or further out. Anyone coming from the Green Line stations in PG would have a similar commute.

As for driving, if you live in Fort Washington or somewhere near there it is a much shorter drive to Crystal City than coming from a lot of Fairfax (Reston, Oakton, etc) and you don’t have to pay tolls.

You have to get to the metro, then metro, then get to the AWS building. So, you are forgetting to include getting to the metro, waiting for a train, transferring trains and then getting to the AWS building.

It can be 2 hours like that poster said. Its been up to 4-5 hours in a snow store or fender bender.

[Anonymous]

Ya no point in moving for a company like AMZN where employees typically only make it to the 1.5-year mark.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They will hire locals and most will commute in. There are already a lot of Amazon employees and many will be consolidated. They are having trouble filling the slots they have. They also allow telecommuting for some jobs so you can live further out and just go in as needed. We don't know anyone who works at Amazon who lives near work. Some live in other states and just fly in as needed.

+1 I have friends in close in Maryland who commute to Amazon in Virginia. They're not all going to live within a mile of HQ.

Yea, but their life is going to be a living hell. I already have people who commute in fro MoCo on my team and they are 1.5hrs in the car already. These marylanders are already so priced out, hopefully for their sake MD can try to figure out how to attract business and not drive it away.

No, they're not priced out, some people just prefer Maryland (which has equally expensive real estate as VA to date) for whatever reason. I have a neighbor in Chevy Chase who works at AWS. She says it takes about 30-40 minutes driving to AWS. That's not a bad commute (same as my commute to DC).

That's gotta be on a good day. One little fender bender, and we're closer to 2 hours. Trust me, I know.

You’re assuming everyone in Maryland needs to drive or lives in MoCo. A train ride from Takoma, Silver Spring or Forest Glen to Amazon is around 30 to 40 minutes...the same or less time as it would be from Vienna or anywhere on the Silver Line from Tysons or further out. Anyone coming from the Green Line stations in PG would have a similar commute.

As for driving, if you live in Fort Washington or somewhere near there it is a much shorter drive to Crystal City than coming from a lot of Fairfax (Reston, Oakton, etc) and you don’t have to pay tolls.

You have to get to the metro, then metro, then get to the AWS building. So, you are forgetting to include getting to the metro, waiting for a train, transferring trains and then getting to the AWS building.

It can be 2 hours like that poster said. Its been up to 4-5 hours in a snow store or fender bender.

I don’t get your point. The same can be said for people living near the Orange and Silver Lines in Falls Church and Fairfax, yet people assume that Falls Church and Fairfax are going to reap all the benefits. All I’m saying is that there are many places in close-in Maryland (a couple miles inside or outside the Beltway) that have just as convenient commutes to Amazon as places like Falls Church, Vienna, Reston, etc. It is faster to get to Crystal City from the end of the Green Line in Greenbelt via Metro than from Vienna. It takes about the same time to get to Amazon from Forest Glen and Strathmore than it does from Wiehle. This fantasy that most people are going to drive on the tolls on I-66 and pay $20+ a day to park isn’t realistic. A lot of their employees will be taking Metro and commuter rail.

[Anonymous]

If this will help show some perspective, we live near on east end of 395 in Alexandria's West End. It's a great place to live: Quaker Lane to 395 N if going to downtown DC or to Glebe to Route 1 if going to CC. Choice of schooling (city vs private). Relatively suburban still. Plenty of great restaurants as well as great local food shopping centers. Peaceful. Green. Nice.