For those that actually thought college applications would be down this year...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People are milking the college bubble for all it's worth while the money is still flowing.

The bubble will burst soon, as it shows signs already of happening.

The 90$ fee for each app?

[Anonymous]

Number of applicants will go down but they will apply to more schools on average, increasing total applications. By way of example from recent years—

2023: 1.2 million applicants with 7.5 million total applications.
2024: 1.5 million applicants with 8.1 million total applications.
2025: 1.5 million applicants with 8.5 million total applications.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It’s possible for there to be less applicants but an increase in total application numbers if students on the whole are applying to a g re greater number of schools. Still too soon to extrapolate from early application numbers for one university.

+1

And definitely not enough data to draw conclusions about overall # of applications.

They are gonna be up.

What specifically is going to be up and what’s the basis for your prediction? Application totals or number of individual applicants seeking a seat in college? There’s a difference.

What does it matter when you evaluating from the standpoint of whether college admissions will be more competitive this cycle. More applications to a school means more competition. Period. To me that's the relevance.

But each student can only attend one college. As students apply to more and more schools, they’ll still only be able to pick one acceptance for enrollment. That means a lot of declined acceptances.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Number of applicants will go down but they will apply to more schools on average, increasing total applications. By way of example from recent years—

2023: 1.2 million applicants with 7.5 million total applications.
2024: 1.5 million applicants with 8.1 million total applications.
2025: 1.5 million applicants with 8.5 million total applications.

Does this include international applicants?

[Anonymous]

If all schools would require test scores it would go a long way towards reducing the crazy number of apps some kids are doing. UVA is going to have a huge increase in numbers because it is test optional and no supplements. Every kid with an inflated GPA and low test score will apply there because it is no extra work and they can go TO.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think EA is up bc college counselors say you MUST apply EA if offered (as opposed to RD).

This is definitely a change in recent years. The application process has shifted more to the fall versus winter. Students are applying earlier, which is leading to record numbers of early applications.

Again though, the number of applicants is not necessarily increasing. The last two years stayed the same at 1.5 million but the birth rate starts to decline with the current senior class. I’d also expect a decrease in international applicants given the current political climate.

[Anonymous]

Applications might go down, but the top private colleges and the top public flagships...UVA, Florida, UNC, UGA, UCLA, Berkeley will get more and more selective.

There are just so many seats in the T50 colleges and for good or bad high school students chase prestige.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If all schools would require test scores it would go a long way towards reducing the crazy number of apps some kids are doing. UVA is going to have a huge increase in numbers because it is test optional and no supplements. Every kid with an inflated GPA and low test score will apply there because it is no extra work and they can go TO.

So easier to apply than Maryland which does have supp ?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think EA is up bc college counselors say you MUST apply EA if offered (as opposed to RD).

This is definitely a change in recent years. The application process has shifted more to the fall versus winter. Students are applying earlier, which is leading to record numbers of early applications.

Again though, the number of applicants is not necessarily increasing. The last two years stayed the same at 1.5 million but the birth rate starts to decline with the current senior class. I’d also expect a decrease in international applicants given the current political climate.

Before we know it they will be applying before 9th grade

[Anonymous]

Seems like a lot of folks here are arguing the same point.

Demand is being pulled forward by EA/ED to capitalize on prestige to skim a thinning layer of cream from the applicant pool at the expense of deferring or rejecting kids who would otherwise be great fits.

The tell will be what happens between April - May this spring when many more schools like Syracuse have an oh s*** moment as full pay kids come off waitlists at T25/T50 last minute + they've rejected plenty of kids who would've been great admits from EA. Or have to throw scholarships at admitted and enrolled to ensure there's no last minute ghosting.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seems like a lot of folks here are arguing the same point.

Demand is being pulled forward by EA/ED to capitalize on prestige to skim a thinning layer of cream from the applicant pool at the expense of deferring or rejecting kids who would otherwise be great fits.

The tell will be what happens between April - May this spring when many more schools like Syracuse have an oh s*** moment as full pay kids come off waitlists at T25/T50 last minute + they've rejected plenty of kids who would've been great admits from EA. Or have to throw scholarships at admitted and enrolled to ensure there's no last minute ghosting.

I think this is spot on. If I were in charge of admissions, I would instruct my staff to admit kids that might incrementally up our scores but actually enroll.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Seems like a lot of folks here are arguing the same point.

Demand is being pulled forward by EA/ED to capitalize on prestige to skim a thinning layer of cream from the applicant pool at the expense of deferring or rejecting kids who would otherwise be great fits.

The tell will be what happens between April - May this spring when many more schools like Syracuse have an oh s*** moment as full pay kids come off waitlists at T25/T50 last minute + they've rejected plenty of kids who would've been great admits from EA. Or have to throw scholarships at admitted and enrolled to ensure there's no last minute ghosting.

Why specifically do you think there will be more shifting than there ever is? Kids come off waitlists every year.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Anecdotally, my DC applied to one ED and 9 EA. I thought this was too many until I started talking to other parents. I am hearing 15-16 EA from multiple parents. A few 18!! DMV private.

Two years ago, my Ann-Arbor-dwelling friend's kid wanted to go to Michigan. Lots of competition within his high school to go to College of Engineering. He was an NMF but felt there were no guarantees.

He applied to 15 schools and ended up at Michigan.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Seems like a lot of folks here are arguing the same point.

Demand is being pulled forward by EA/ED to capitalize on prestige to skim a thinning layer of cream from the applicant pool at the expense of deferring or rejecting kids who would otherwise be great fits.

The tell will be what happens between April - May this spring when many more schools like Syracuse have an oh s*** moment as full pay kids come off waitlists at T25/T50 last minute + they've rejected plenty of kids who would've been great admits from EA. Or have to throw scholarships at admitted and enrolled to ensure there's no last minute ghosting.

Why specifically do you think there will be more shifting than there ever is? Kids come off waitlists every year.

More applications per applicant means more shifting at the last minute, because at the end of the day each kid can only attend one college.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:More applications does not mean more unique applicants. At the end of the day no student can attend more than one school.

+1

Kids apply to twenty schools since it's easy to do.