Ward 4 council race: Any chance for a Leon Andrews win over Brandon Todd?

[Anonymous]

Just wondering if anyone has any insight. Andrews seems like a good dude, but not sure he has any chance over Todd. I haven't been able to find any early polling data (aside from one non-scientific poll in a Petworth paper). I live in a Ward 4 neighborhood that is a Todd stronghold, although I've seen a few Andrews yard signs too lately.

[jsteele]

Given that there is no polling, we don't have much to go on beyond our hunches. It seems like the Green Team candidate always gets about 40% of the vote when running against a large crowd. The one recent exception was 2012 when Muriel Bowser ran for re-election and received 66%. But, she was running against pretty weak opponents. So, I believe we can guess that Todd starts out with 40% and Andrews starts out with 40%. Gurley and Austin are probably good for 2% each, though that might be generous. So, that leaves 16% of the vote that is in play. I think Andrews definitely has a shot.

One wildcard is Shepherd Park. Because of the funding cuts to Shepherd Elementary, Todd and Bowser have been in the neighborhood railing against Grosso and promising to try to restore the funds. One interpretation of the funding cut is that it highlights Todd's weakness in not being able to stand up for the school and Bowser's inability to work with the Council (the Colbert King analysis). But, another interpretation is that Bowser is powerful enough to restore funding and her hand-picked replacement will be better able to work with her in doing so. Shepherd Park has a huge number of voters, many of whom previously voted for Toliver instead of Todd. That group could be the deciding factor.

As a Ward 4 resident, I also wonder how many voters are so sick and tired of receiving phone calls from Todd that they will vote against him just to make them stop. I offered to get down on my hands and knees for the last caller and beg for the calls to stop. I received another call within two days.

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:
As a Ward 4 resident, I also wonder how many voters are so sick and tired of receiving phone calls from Todd that they will vote against him just to make them stop. I offered to get down on my hands and knees for the last caller and beg for the calls to stop. I received another call within two days.

I had to listen to a Tubby Brandon Todd caller talk to someone else in the room about her congestion for 30 seconds before she launched into her spiel. It was my third call of the week.

[Anonymous]

My family's new favorite car game is seeing how many times we can count andrews' face on posters as we drive through the neighborhood

[Anonymous]

jsteele wrote:Given that there is no polling, we don't have much to go on beyond our hunches. It seems like the Green Team candidate always gets about 40% of the vote when running against a large crowd. The one recent exception was 2012 when Muriel Bowser ran for re-election and received 66%. But, she was running against pretty weak opponents. So, I believe we can guess that Todd starts out with 40% and Andrews starts out with 40%. Gurley and Austin are probably good for 2% each, though that might be generous. So, that leaves 16% of the vote that is in play. I think Andrews definitely has a shot.

One wildcard is Shepherd Park. Because of the funding cuts to Shepherd Elementary, Todd and Bowser have been in the neighborhood railing against Grosso and promising to try to restore the funds. One interpretation of the funding cut is that it highlights Todd's weakness in not being able to stand up for the school and Bowser's inability to work with the Council (the Colbert King analysis). But, another interpretation is that Bowser is powerful enough to restore funding and her hand-picked replacement will be better able to work with her in doing so. Shepherd Park has a huge number of voters, many of whom previously voted for Toliver instead of Todd. That group could be the deciding factor.

As a Ward 4 resident, I also wonder how many voters are so sick and tired of receiving phone calls from Todd that they will vote against him just to make them stop. I offered to get down on my hands and knees for the last caller and beg for the calls to stop. I received another call within two days.

Lol. OP here--SP is our neighborhood. I've only talked to a couple neighbors about this since my sense just from the yard signs and listserv is that most people are Todd supporters--but I don't know for sure. Seems he's definitely got the older adults vote locked up. We are a young AA family--have talked to a few others in Ward 4 who are also curious about Andrews, but worried about his effectiveness since he doesn't have the Mayor behind him like Todd does..

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:Given that there is no polling, we don't have much to go on beyond our hunches. It seems like the Green Team candidate always gets about 40% of the vote when running against a large crowd. The one recent exception was 2012 when Muriel Bowser ran for re-election and received 66%. But, she was running against pretty weak opponents. So, I believe we can guess that Todd starts out with 40% and Andrews starts out with 40%. Gurley and Austin are probably good for 2% each, though that might be generous. So, that leaves 16% of the vote that is in play. I think Andrews definitely has a shot.

One wildcard is Shepherd Park. Because of the funding cuts to Shepherd Elementary, Todd and Bowser have been in the neighborhood railing against Grosso and promising to try to restore the funds. One interpretation of the funding cut is that it highlights Todd's weakness in not being able to stand up for the school and Bowser's inability to work with the Council (the Colbert King analysis). But, another interpretation is that Bowser is powerful enough to restore funding and her hand-picked replacement will be better able to work with her in doing so. Shepherd Park has a huge number of voters, many of whom previously voted for Toliver instead of Todd. That group could be the deciding factor.

As a Ward 4 resident, I also wonder how many voters are so sick and tired of receiving phone calls from Todd that they will vote against him just to make them stop. I offered to get down on my hands and knees for the last caller and beg for the calls to stop. I received another call within two days.

Lol. OP here--SP is our neighborhood. I've only talked to a couple neighbors about this since my sense just from the yard signs and listserv is that most people are Todd supporters--but I don't know for sure. Seems he's definitely got the older adults vote locked up. We are a young AA family--have talked to a few others in Ward 4 who are also curious about Andrews, but worried about his effectiveness since he doesn't have the Mayor behind him like Todd does..

I live in Colonial Village and I think people remain silent b/c they don't want to offend the Mayor. Todd is as dumb as a box of rocks. The box is smarter.

[Anonymous]

OP here, just checking in. Any new insights? I see the new Petworth News poll has Andrews at 67% and Todd at only 27%, but again, it's an unscientific poll. Still, last poll had Andrews only slightly ahead. Also seeing that NW Current endorsed Andrews, and there are a few more Andrews yard signs around my 'hood. Could this race be getting competitive, or does Todd still pretty much have it in the bag?

[Anonymous]

CV resident here. i met Andrews and his wife and they struck me as down to earth and very invested in Ward 4. They are raising their children in the house that Andrews was raised in by his grandmother. i like him and plan to vote for him. i am never afraid of new blood!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

jsteele wrote:Given that there is no polling, we don't have much to go on beyond our hunches. It seems like the Green Team candidate always gets about 40% of the vote when running against a large crowd. The one recent exception was 2012 when Muriel Bowser ran for re-election and received 66%. But, she was running against pretty weak opponents. So, I believe we can guess that Todd starts out with 40% and Andrews starts out with 40%. Gurley and Austin are probably good for 2% each, though that might be generous. So, that leaves 16% of the vote that is in play. I think Andrews definitely has a shot.

One wildcard is Shepherd Park. Because of the funding cuts to Shepherd Elementary, Todd and Bowser have been in the neighborhood railing against Grosso and promising to try to restore the funds. One interpretation of the funding cut is that it highlights Todd's weakness in not being able to stand up for the school and Bowser's inability to work with the Council (the Colbert King analysis). But, another interpretation is that Bowser is powerful enough to restore funding and her hand-picked replacement will be better able to work with her in doing so. Shepherd Park has a huge number of voters, many of whom previously voted for Toliver instead of Todd. That group could be the deciding factor.

As a Ward 4 resident, I also wonder how many voters are so sick and tired of receiving phone calls from Todd that they will vote against him just to make them stop. I offered to get down on my hands and knees for the last caller and beg for the calls to stop. I received another call within two days.

Lol. OP here--SP is our neighborhood. I've only talked to a couple neighbors about this since my sense just from the yard signs and listserv is that most people are Todd supporters--but I don't know for sure. Seems he's definitely got the older adults vote locked up. We are a young AA family--have talked to a few others in Ward 4 who are also curious about Andrews, but worried about his effectiveness since he doesn't have the Mayor behind him like Todd does..

Todd has been useless on the issues that matter to our community. He's had the mayor's back, but she doesn't give him anything special.
I'll go with Andrews thank you very much.

[Anonymous]

I am with Andrews as well... we need someone new and he is smart and refreshing.

[Anonymous]

Brandon is a nice guy, but still acts like he's on Muriel's payroll. I think the folks who support Andrews, but don't want to annoy the Mayor by being public about it, will give Leon the win.

[Anonymous]

I don't live in ward 4, but was at the St Pauls strawberry festival there. Andrews was there and I saw a bunch of yard signs. I didn't see any for other candidates.

[Anonymous]

I'm voting for Andrews. I think Todd is an idiot.

[Anonymous]

Andrews voter here. His creds and personal story are winners for me. If Todd couldn't get funding restored for Shepherd with Muriel behind him, I can't imagine how effective he really is. His constituent services are average, no major complaints but nothing really impressive either.

[Anonymous]

Andrews supported as well. I have known him and his wife (and children) for 7 years and they are always a great group to be around.

I believe he is getting his PhD from Michigan - not only does he have the academic credentials - but us clearly head and shoulders above Todd in the sharpest tack competition.