Economy is roaring

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Stop sounding like a victim. Of course it's been reported. The challenge is that most Trumpsters don't understand that the stock market has nothing to do with people's lives and their financial livelihood. Of course the stock market is great. Companies got a huge tax cut and didn't pass it on to anyone, including their employees!

You are completely delusional. The stock market has a TON to do with people's lives and financial well being. My parents are retired and still have a portion of their 401k invested in equities. How the stock market moves affects how much money they have in their accounts. Tons and tons of public workers have their pensions funded through investments in the market. States, cities, towns and municipalities all invest in the stock market, and how the market moves can dramatically affect budgets for spending on public services. Only an absolute idiot would claim that the stock market doesn't affect your average person.

So it affects retired people.

I'm calling B.S. on this one. Please show me a "States, cities, towns and municipalities" whose budget or provided services are dependent on the the stock market.

Not an accountant, but this is how I understand it.

A pension plan is considered fully funded if it is able to make payments to both current and prospective pensioners. If it is underfunded, money must be put in to keep the plan solvent. As local government pension funds rise in value owing to the increase in their equity investments, the need to draw on tax payer money to keep up the pension fund value is reduced, thus freeing up tax money for public services.

Note: Almost all local government employees have defined benefit pension funds.

You wrote:

States, cities, towns and municipalities all invest in the stock market, and how the market moves can dramatically affect budgets for spending on public services.

You still haven't proven that. You have, again, pointed to employee benefits for retirees. There are no towns that set budgets or provide local services based on the stock market.

Not an accountant here. I should have prefaced my post with DP as I did not make the original post about a rising stock market helping out the budgets of local governments.

I was providing an explanation for how a rising stock market can free up public monies to fund public services because less of it is going to top up the local government pension funds. That is not the same as setting budgets based on the stock market, but it can result in budget surpluses, some of which can be used on public services.

But perhaps I have mangled PP's original point and perhaps they will correct me if I have.

[Anonymous]

There are so few pension funds anymore for current employees. Most new hires in the last 15-20 years were put into 401k's, not pension funds. And, many pension funds were converted to 401k's around 2000.

The stock market does not impact the lives of half of American workers and decreasingly anyone under the age of 30. Most working Americans have little ability to put money away, much less in risky equities.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are so few pension funds anymore for current employees. Most new hires in the last 15-20 years were put into 401k's, not pension funds. And, many pension funds were converted to 401k's around 2000.

The stock market does not impact the lives of half of American workers and decreasingly anyone under the age of 30. Most working Americans have little ability to put money away, much less in risky equities.

94 percent of local and state government employees have access to a defined benefit pension plan. And of course almost all federal employees.

If Americans have money to put away for retirement, equities is definitely the way it should be invested for at least the first few decades of their working lives.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There are so few pension funds anymore for current employees. Most new hires in the last 15-20 years were put into 401k's, not pension funds. And, many pension funds were converted to 401k's around 2000.

The stock market does not impact the lives of half of American workers and decreasingly anyone under the age of 30. Most working Americans have little ability to put money away, much less in risky equities.

I have a sibling who has never had a 401k or other retirement savings. He is in his 50s now, has worked a couple jobs his entire life to get by. I'm sure he'll be working through his 70s and I expect to be helping him out when he is retired.

Nearly 40% of Americans wouldn't easily be able to pay for a $400 emergency with cash from savings. That is telling.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Stop sounding like a victim. Of course it's been reported. The challenge is that most Trumpsters don't understand that the stock market has nothing to do with people's lives and their financial livelihood. Of course the stock market is great. Companies got a huge tax cut and didn't pass it on to anyone, including their employees!

You are completely delusional. The stock market has a TON to do with people's lives and financial well being. My parents are retired and still have a portion of their 401k invested in equities. How the stock market moves affects how much money they have in their accounts. Tons and tons of public workers have their pensions funded through investments in the market. States, cities, towns and municipalities all invest in the stock market, and how the market moves can dramatically affect budgets for spending on public services. Only an absolute idiot would claim that the stock market doesn't affect your average person.

So it affects retired people.

I'm calling B.S. on this one. Please show me a "States, cities, towns and municipalities" whose budget or provided services are dependent on the the stock market.

Not an accountant, but this is how I understand it.

A pension plan is considered fully funded if it is able to make payments to both current and prospective pensioners. If it is underfunded, money must be put in to keep the plan solvent. As local government pension funds rise in value owing to the increase in their equity investments, the need to draw on tax payer money to keep up the pension fund value is reduced, thus freeing up tax money for public services.

Note: Almost all local government employees have defined benefit pension funds.

This is not how local government budgets are set. It isn't how the federal government budget is set either.

+1. Is the federal government running a surplus now that stock market is at all time high? No. Deficit is same as 2012, when we were still in a recession.

[Anonymous]

We are heading to a 2008 recession, even worse.

Corporations are artificially pumping up stock prices through buybacks and paying zero taxes. That results in a strong market, but weak indicators elsewhere. We also have inflated unemployment numbers buoyed by part time/low pay/no benefit jobs being lumped into the number. So economists/journalists use those numbers and claim "booming economy!"

Dig deeper and you see consumer debt is surpassing 2008 levels, wages are stagnant, manufacturing is in a recession, healthcare costs continue to rise, college attendance is dropping, home ownership is down and everything is more expensive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:
Stop sounding like a victim. Of course it's been reported. The challenge is that most Trumpsters don't understand that the stock market has nothing to do with people's lives and their financial livelihood. Of course the stock market is great. Companies got a huge tax cut and didn't pass it on to anyone, including their employees!

You are completely delusional. The stock market has a TON to do with people's lives and financial well being. My parents are retired and still have a portion of their 401k invested in equities. How the stock market moves affects how much money they have in their accounts. Tons and tons of public workers have their pensions funded through investments in the market. States, cities, towns and municipalities all invest in the stock market, and how the market moves can dramatically affect budgets for spending on public services. Only an absolute idiot would claim that the stock market doesn't affect your average person.

So it affects retired people.

I'm calling B.S. on this one. Please show me a "States, cities, towns and municipalities" whose budget or provided services are dependent on the the stock market.

Not an accountant, but this is how I understand it.

A pension plan is considered fully funded if it is able to make payments to both current and prospective pensioners. If it is underfunded, money must be put in to keep the plan solvent. As local government pension funds rise in value owing to the increase in their equity investments, the need to draw on tax payer money to keep up the pension fund value is reduced, thus freeing up tax money for public services.

Note: Almost all local government employees have defined benefit pension funds.

This is not how local government budgets are set. It isn't how the federal government budget is set either.

+1. Is the federal government running a surplus now that stock market is at all time high? No. Deficit is same as 2012, when we were still in a recession.

My understanding is that under accounting rules applicable to the federal government, the federal government, unlike corporations, does not need to top up pension funds because it can tax instead. I do not know what accounting rules apply to local and state government pension funds.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:We are heading to a 2008 recession, even worse.

Corporations are artificially pumping up stock prices through buybacks and paying zero taxes. That results in a strong market, but weak indicators elsewhere. We also have inflated unemployment numbers buoyed by part time/low pay/no benefit jobs being lumped into the number. So economists/journalists use those numbers and claim "booming economy!"

Dig deeper and you see consumer debt is surpassing 2008 levels, wages are stagnant, manufacturing is in a recession, healthcare costs continue to rise, college attendance is dropping, home ownership is down and everything is more expensive.

I thought wages were increasing. Where are you reading that they are stagnant?

[Anonymous]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-study-finds-trump-tariffs-backfired-2019-12-27
Economy is doing well despite Trump, not because of him. His tariffs had negative effects on U.S. manufacturing. And despite the recent trade deal with China, a huge deficit with China will persist. Trump caved so he would have some kind of talking point for the 2020 election. The deal is weak.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/16/commentary-the-us-china-trade-deal-leaves-a-large-american-deficit.html

[Anonymous]

There is no trade deal with China. That was an announcement that there may be a Phase 1 deal, but no details worth a hill of beans came with it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:We are heading to a 2008 recession, even worse.

Corporations are artificially pumping up stock prices through buybacks and paying zero taxes. That results in a strong market, but weak indicators elsewhere. We also have inflated unemployment numbers buoyed by part time/low pay/no benefit jobs being lumped into the number. So economists/journalists use those numbers and claim "booming economy!"

Dig deeper and you see consumer debt is surpassing 2008 levels, wages are stagnant, manufacturing is in a recession, healthcare costs continue to rise, college attendance is dropping, home ownership is down and everything is more expensive.

I thought wages were increasing. Where are you reading that they are stagnant?

Yes--several posts about increasing wages especially at the lower end.

According to Federal Reserve stats, household debt service payments to disposable income are the lowest since they began collecting in 1980 and significantly lower than the peak in Q4 2007 (9.7% vs. 13.2%).

Could only find college attendance stats ti 2016. Percent of 18 to 24 year olds in college at that point had recovered the decline experienced since 2009 and likely exceed that level now, three years later.

As for things being more expensive--zero inflation is not desirable.

[Anonymous]

what happened to the 3%GDP growth? It’s now below 2%. Manufacturing down, farm bankruptcies up 25%, trucking decimated, wage growth nonexistent.

Trump’s tax cut was awesome for rich people and corps.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:what happened to the 3%GDP growth? It’s now below 2%. Manufacturing down, farm bankruptcies up 25%, trucking decimated, wage growth nonexistent.

Trump’s tax cut was awesome for rich people and corps.

Stop posting incorrect numbers and misleading info.

The latest GDP is NOT below 2%:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2019-third-estimate-corporate-profits-third-quarter

What exactly is manufacturing "down" from? It was in a lull midyear, but has rebounded since then:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi

Plus, manufacturing hit an all time high under Trump, and manufacturing GDP CLEARLY took off after he took office:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-from-manufacturing

Wage growth is in fact, existing. It grows steadily over time, when it does grow.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker

Yes, farm bankruptcies are up, however, there are many reasons, other than trade, to blame:
https://modernfarmer.com/2019/11/farm-bankruptcies-are-way-up-this-year/

This forecast from the ATA hardly describes a "decimated" industry.
https://www.trucking.org/article/Latest-Freight-Forecast-Projects-25.6%25-Increase-in-Tonnage-by-2030

Things are not as bad as you hope them to be...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:what happened to the 3%GDP growth? It’s now below 2%. Manufacturing down, farm bankruptcies up 25%, trucking decimated, wage growth nonexistent.

Trump’s tax cut was awesome for rich people and corps.

Stop posting incorrect numbers and misleading info.

The latest GDP is NOT below 2%:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2019-third-estimate-corporate-profits-third-quarter

What exactly is manufacturing "down" from? It was in a lull midyear, but has rebounded since then:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi

Plus, manufacturing hit an all time high under Trump, and manufacturing GDP CLEARLY took off after he took office:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-from-manufacturing

Wage growth is in fact, existing. It grows steadily over time, when it does grow.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker

Yes, farm bankruptcies are up, however, there are many reasons, other than trade, to blame:
https://modernfarmer.com/2019/11/farm-bankruptcies-are-way-up-this-year/

This forecast from the ATA hardly describes a "decimated" industry.
https://www.trucking.org/article/Latest-Freight-Forecast-Projects-25.6%25-Increase-in-Tonnage-by-2030

Things are not as bad as you hope them to be...

Still not even close to 4, 5 or 6% growth, as promised. GDP under Trump is essentially the same as GDP under Obama. I like politicians that keep their campaign promises.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2017/12/16/trump_were_going_to_see_economy_growth_of_4_5_and_maybe_6_percent.html

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:what happened to the 3%GDP growth? It’s now below 2%. Manufacturing down, farm bankruptcies up 25%, trucking decimated, wage growth nonexistent.

Trump’s tax cut was awesome for rich people and corps.

Stop posting incorrect numbers and misleading info.

The latest GDP is NOT below 2%:
https://www.bea.gov/news/2019/gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-2019-third-estimate-corporate-profits-third-quarter

What exactly is manufacturing "down" from? It was in a lull midyear, but has rebounded since then:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/manufacturing-pmi

Plus, manufacturing hit an all time high under Trump, and manufacturing GDP CLEARLY took off after he took office:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp-from-manufacturing

Wage growth is in fact, existing. It grows steadily over time, when it does grow.
https://www.frbatlanta.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker

Yes, farm bankruptcies are up, however, there are many reasons, other than trade, to blame:
https://modernfarmer.com/2019/11/farm-bankruptcies-are-way-up-this-year/

This forecast from the ATA hardly describes a "decimated" industry.
https://www.trucking.org/article/Latest-Freight-Forecast-Projects-25.6%25-Increase-in-Tonnage-by-2030

Things are not as bad as you hope them to be...

GDP is 2.1%. This is not the "greatest economy in history." The economy is not "roaring." And you are never going to convince me otherwise as long as the GDP sits at 2.1% and debt to GDP ratio is above 100%.