Post your electoral map prediction!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also, OH and NC should be called pretty much on election day. If one or both go for Biden, Trump will have no path to 270.

I read that if Ohio is close, even if leaning toward Trump, that in and of itself is a really bad sign for Trump nationally. Kind of like how early on election night 2016, he started to really over perform in Florida and that was a very good sign for him. So here’s hoping, Ohio.

Makes sense. Ohio was won by Donald Trump by a margin of 8.13 points in 2016.

Now 538 says Trump is down by a point.

I have a kid in college at Oberlin. He has already had someone from a local GOtV effort help him switch his registration from Va to Ohio and properly request an early absentee ballot. I’m sure they will circle around in a month and make sure it is complete. I’m hoping similar efforts are happening at Ohio State and the other SLACs. There are probably 1000 extra Biden votes to be gotten at just Oberlin by OOS non-swing state helping kids switch registration and Ohio kids vote absentee. Maybe 10,000 plus at Ohio State. College kids are bemoaned because they often don’t vote. But they are new to the process and have extra hoops to jump through if they don’t live at home. Plus, many don’t realize that they can use college as their residence.

If you want to donate, look for Ohio GOTV efforts. Ones tailored towards college kids could swing the state if it’s close.

Do you know if changing state residence for voting purposes now makes student responsible for new state income taxes? Can parent still claim as a dependent if child is no longer resident of original state ?

[Anonymous]

Am I the only person who enjoys doing a really super duper optimistic electoral map, just to stare at it? For instance, in that scenario, states like Mississippi and Texas go blue based on fairly thin evidence (Espy within 1% of Hyde-Smith, and I posit that if he wins, that means he drove turnout for Biden/Harris, too). Basically any state that has had one decent poll for the Democrats or whispers of going blue, I turn blue.

I don’t know how to post it and it’s not reality based, but it’s sure nice to look at.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also, OH and NC should be called pretty much on election day. If one or both go for Biden, Trump will have no path to 270.

I read that if Ohio is close, even if leaning toward Trump, that in and of itself is a really bad sign for Trump nationally. Kind of like how early on election night 2016, he started to really over perform in Florida and that was a very good sign for him. So here’s hoping, Ohio.

Makes sense. Ohio was won by Donald Trump by a margin of 8.13 points in 2016.

Now 538 says Trump is down by a point.

I have a kid in college at Oberlin. He has already had someone from a local GOtV effort help him switch his registration from Va to Ohio and properly request an early absentee ballot. I’m sure they will circle around in a month and make sure it is complete. I’m hoping similar efforts are happening at Ohio State and the other SLACs. There are probably 1000 extra Biden votes to be gotten at just Oberlin by OOS non-swing state helping kids switch registration and Ohio kids vote absentee. Maybe 10,000 plus at Ohio State. College kids are bemoaned because they often don’t vote. But they are new to the process and have extra hoops to jump through if they don’t live at home. Plus, many don’t realize that they can use college as their residence.

If you want to donate, look for Ohio GOTV efforts. Ones tailored towards college kids could swing the state if it’s close.

Do you know if changing state residence for voting purposes now makes student responsible for new state income taxes? Can parent still claim as a dependent if child is no longer resident of original state ?

Of course they can. Kid files income taxes in the state they reside if they have an income over $12,000 to report.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only person who enjoys doing a really super duper optimistic electoral map, just to stare at it? For instance, in that scenario, states like Mississippi and Texas go blue based on fairly thin evidence (Espy within 1% of Hyde-Smith, and I posit that if he wins, that means he drove turnout for Biden/Harris, too). Basically any state that has had one decent poll for the Democrats or whispers of going blue, I turn blue.

I don’t know how to post it and it’s not reality based, but it’s sure nice to look at.

I like looking at the maps of 2012, 2008, and 1992. I was born in 1982 so 1992 is the first POTUS contest I really remember. And 1996 wasn't a close contest.

[Anonymous]

Slim. <div align="center"><a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/vrYK2"><img src="https://www.270towin.com/map-images/vrYK2.png" width="800"></a><br><small><img style="vertical-align:middle;" src="https://www.270towin.com/uploads/3rd_party_270_30px.png" alt="" /> Click the map to create your own at <a href="https://www.270towin.com/maps/vrYK2">270toWin.com</a></small></div>

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

You're dreaming, Vlad.

If Trump were to be re-elected, this would be the most plausable electoral map.

Really? Nevada going red and WEST VIRGINIA going blue is "most plausible to you"? ....ok.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Am I the only person who enjoys doing a really super duper optimistic electoral map, just to stare at it? For instance, in that scenario, states like Mississippi and Texas go blue based on fairly thin evidence (Espy within 1% of Hyde-Smith, and I posit that if he wins, that means he drove turnout for Biden/Harris, too). Basically any state that has had one decent poll for the Democrats or whispers of going blue, I turn blue.

I don’t know how to post it and it’s not reality based, but it’s sure nice to look at.

[Anonymous]

<div align="center">
<small> Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com</small></div>

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also, OH and NC should be called pretty much on election day. If one or both go for Biden, Trump will have no path to 270.

I read that if Ohio is close, even if leaning toward Trump, that in and of itself is a really bad sign for Trump nationally. Kind of like how early on election night 2016, he started to really over perform in Florida and that was a very good sign for him. So here’s hoping, Ohio.

Makes sense. Ohio was won by Donald Trump by a margin of 8.13 points in 2016.

Now 538 says Trump is down by a point.

I have a kid in college at Oberlin. He has already had someone from a local GOtV effort help him switch his registration from Va to Ohio and properly request an early absentee ballot. I’m sure they will circle around in a month and make sure it is complete. I’m hoping similar efforts are happening at Ohio State and the other SLACs. There are probably 1000 extra Biden votes to be gotten at just Oberlin by OOS non-swing state helping kids switch registration and Ohio kids vote absentee. Maybe 10,000 plus at Ohio State. College kids are bemoaned because they often don’t vote. But they are new to the process and have extra hoops to jump through if they don’t live at home. Plus, many don’t realize that they can use college as their residence.

If you want to donate, look for Ohio GOTV efforts. Ones tailored towards college kids could swing the state if it’s close.

Do you know if changing state residence for voting purposes now makes student responsible for new state income taxes? Can parent still claim as a dependent if child is no longer resident of original state ?

When I was an undergrad, I voted where I went to school, but my legal domicile was where I grew up. I don't think that has changed. My kid is a freshman at a swing state school and hes registered to vote there this fall, but they have not changed their domicile and I expect they will pay local taxes from summer employment (more than Trump, LOL) here in DC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:<div align="center">
<small> Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com</small></div>

The only thing I would change on this map is Arizona going blue.

[Anonymous]

I'm actually of the belief that a lot of traditionally red states are going to go blue. I wouldn't be surprised if Ohio and Florida went for Trump because those are basically red states now. I think we could see Texas go for Biden. A lot of people only voted for Trump because of the Supreme Court. Well now they've got what you might call a "super majority" in the courts so those people no longer need Trump to win. Combine that with all the distasteful and disrespectful things he's done and you have a lot of people that might go Biden at the top of the ticket and vote Republicans down ballot. I think I speak for many other people when I say, I'd rather have a boring President for four years after the last (nearly) four years of Trump. I don't need to see a Tweet or some dumb thing he said or did in the news three times daily. I was competent government run by people acting like adults. Trump won't even talk directly to Pelosi or negotiate with her because she hurt his feelings. Texas polls are close and they've had a massive influx of new registered voters. Those people are not polled because they wouldn't be considered "likely voters". I think Trump is basically swimming against the tide this year. He's going to pull out all the tricks and shenanigans he can think of but the vote is going to be so lopsided that even those tricks won't change anything.
https://www.texasstandard.org/stories/texas-sets-voter-registration-record-1-5-million-have-signed-up-since-2016/

[Anonymous]

[Anonymous]

Texas flips, because I am phone banking:

[Anonymous]

How do you know Texas might go blue? The Republicans are spending an absolute FORTUNE on glossy, expensive, action movie ads. Do you think this is the kind of ad people put out when they''re "safe"? This thing must have cost millions.

Also, Republicans are suing other Republicans to stop an extension of early voting. This doesn't happen when Texas Republicans think they're safe. I think the state is going blue for Biden, not necessarily for the rest of the ballot though they're afraid down ballot because people might just blue all the way down because of Trump. He's distasteful.
https://www.texastribune.org/2020/09/23/texas-republicans-greg-abbott-early-voting/

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Also, OH and NC should be called pretty much on election day. If one or both go for Biden, Trump will have no path to 270.

I read that if Ohio is close, even if leaning toward Trump, that in and of itself is a really bad sign for Trump nationally. Kind of like how early on election night 2016, he started to really over perform in Florida and that was a very good sign for him. So here’s hoping, Ohio.

Makes sense. Ohio was won by Donald Trump by a margin of 8.13 points in 2016.

Now 538 says Trump is down by a point.

I have a kid in college at Oberlin. He has already had someone from a local GOtV effort help him switch his registration from Va to Ohio and properly request an early absentee ballot. I’m sure they will circle around in a month and make sure it is complete. I’m hoping similar efforts are happening at Ohio State and the other SLACs. There are probably 1000 extra Biden votes to be gotten at just Oberlin by OOS non-swing state helping kids switch registration and Ohio kids vote absentee. Maybe 10,000 plus at Ohio State. College kids are bemoaned because they often don’t vote. But they are new to the process and have extra hoops to jump through if they don’t live at home. Plus, many don’t realize that they can use college as their residence.

If you want to donate, look for Ohio GOTV efforts. Ones tailored towards college kids could swing the state if it’s close.

Do you know if changing state residence for voting purposes now makes student responsible for new state income taxes? Can parent still claim as a dependent if child is no longer resident of original state ?

Of course they can. Kid files income taxes in the state they reside if they have an income over $12,000 to report.

You can no longer deduct children as dependents. You get a tax credit for children 16 or younger as of the end of the tax year.