Moco - no appreciation in the last 10 years

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Non-appreciation is a good thing.

Said no investor ever.

Depends on Investor. I only invest in units to rent out, no intention of selling. Rising prices just makes it harder to find an unit to buy I can rent out for a profit. Also makes it harder for flippers. Each flip has to put more cash at risk when you buy.

Falling prices shake market, flat prices do not.

My house I bought Spring 2017 in MoCo was mostly renovated, pretty new kitchen and bathrooms. I put in new windows and sanded floor and painted. Basically, all new home now. When I sell in 2030 or so after last kid graduated college I am ok with a 25-50K loss.

I paid no rent last 13 years, Did not put a lot into house other than windows. And my kitchen and four baths will be around 20 years old by then. And I paid down the mortgage. If market too weak will just rent it out till bridge is done to VA as I am close in Potomac.

Also the SALT thing is only a ten year thing. In nine years it expires.

[Anonymous]

OP may be a troll but I am in Bethesda and prices are definitely flat in our supposedly/formerly hot neighborhood in the Whitman district. While it's doubled in the 20 years we've been here almost all of that increase was in the first 10 years (and because of expensive renovations we are actually just about even). A couple of houses just sold that had been on the market for quite a while, and only after price cuts. It wasn't long ago that houses sold within a week at full price or more. We are getting ready to downsize and can't decide if we should hang on to it for a while to see if the market improves.

[Anonymous]

MOCO is hurting all over compared to NOVA but the micro-markets all have different challenges.

Its incorrect that the DMV was not harmed by the 2009 financial crash. The effects were simply felt in different degrees across the county. Eastern MOCO was very hard hit. Hard enough that MOCO is partnered with PG in a law suit against predatory lenders in the run up damaging the area. Residents in eastern MOCO were far more likely to be victims or predatory lenders, be over extended and economically insecure. They all lost their homes and the new buyers were not replacement families with stable jobs. Investors and predatory landlords came in and bought the distressed properties turning them into rentals. This is where the huge increase in rental houses all over Silver Spring and Wheaton came from. The same thing happened up in Montgomery Village Gaithersburg.

Now if you happened to buy a small distressed property in the eastern county in 2010-2013, sunk 5%-10% of the price into maintenance and repairs and are luck enough not to live next to a bad landlord rental then you may be able to claim to see a 10% increase on your 400K or 500K house. If you made no improvements, you won't see appreciation. In reality your improvements basically wash out your appreciation and if you factor in transaction and realtor taxes you will be losing not making money if you sell.

If you happened to buy one of the hopeful new remodels or builds near DTSS in 2005-2008 -you are losing money. If you bought a distressed property near DTSS, did nothing to it and then did a very cheap flip you might make something but not much.

What is scary about this is that TP and SS should be doing so much better. The LGBTB community moving over from DC should be increasing the market even more than it has been. LGTB couples tend to have well paying jobs, twi incomes and no childcare expenses. These are great to neighbors to have. TP and SS are close to DC and the area should have improved over the past 10 years. The problem is that the poverty is still there, schools are not considered good, and its too far from the jobs in VA.

[Anonymous]

OP may be a troll but I am in Bethesda and prices are definitely flat in our supposedly/formerly hot neighborhood in the Whitman district. While it's doubled in the 20 years we've been here almost all of that increase was in the first 10 years (and because of expensive renovations we are actually just about even). A couple of houses just sold that had been on the market for quite a while, and only after price cuts. It wasn't long ago that houses sold within a week at full price or more. We are getting ready to downsize and can't decide if we should hang on to it for a while to see if the market improves.

This is true all over the county. The people who are really getting screwed are the ones who bought high (anywhere) and then immediately did their renovations and updates. Those updates look dated now because styles have dramatically changed in the past 10 years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

OP may be a troll but I am in Bethesda and prices are definitely flat in our supposedly/formerly hot neighborhood in the Whitman district. While it's doubled in the 20 years we've been here almost all of that increase was in the first 10 years (and because of expensive renovations we are actually just about even). A couple of houses just sold that had been on the market for quite a while, and only after price cuts. It wasn't long ago that houses sold within a week at full price or more. We are getting ready to downsize and can't decide if we should hang on to it for a while to see if the market improves.

This is true all over the county. The people who are really getting screwed are the ones who bought high (anywhere) and then immediately did their renovations and updates. Those updates look dated now because styles have dramatically changed in the past 10 years.

Updates don't become that undesirable so quickly. Most people are still fine with kitchens from 2005. It's not what keeps people from buying houses.

The real changes are demographics and desirability. There's far more interest to living in DC compared to 2005. There's more demand to live inside the beltway than outside the beltway. Younger generations have different expectations for where housing should be and will pay for it - taking an older, uglier, outdated house over a bigger and newer one a bit further out. Perceptions of schools also change. Eastern MoCo schools have become less desirable.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

OP may be a troll but I am in Bethesda and prices are definitely flat in our supposedly/formerly hot neighborhood in the Whitman district. While it's doubled in the 20 years we've been here almost all of that increase was in the first 10 years (and because of expensive renovations we are actually just about even). A couple of houses just sold that had been on the market for quite a while, and only after price cuts. It wasn't long ago that houses sold within a week at full price or more. We are getting ready to downsize and can't decide if we should hang on to it for a while to see if the market improves.

This is true all over the county. The people who are really getting screwed are the ones who bought high (anywhere) and then immediately did their renovations and updates. Those updates look dated now because styles have dramatically changed in the past 10 years.

Updates don't become that undesirable so quickly. Most people are still fine with kitchens from 2005. It's not what keeps people from buying houses.

The real changes are demographics and desirability. There's far more interest to living in DC compared to 2005. There's more demand to live inside the beltway than outside the beltway. Younger generations have different expectations for where housing should be and will pay for it - taking an older, uglier, outdated house over a bigger and newer one a bit further out. Perceptions of schools also change. Eastern MoCo schools have become less desirable.

This. The population has increased, leading to much more traffic. Young families are trying out DC schools, whereas before they moved to the burbs or went private. Those that can afford it are moving to upper NW or close-in burbs. There's not as much interest in living further out given the reality of longer commutes (and yes, not everyone works in DC, but this partly explains less demand for further out areas).

[Anonymous]

Updates don't become that undesirable so quickly. Most people are still fine with kitchens from 2005. It's not what keeps people from buying houses.

The real changes are demographics and desirability. There's far more interest to living in DC compared to 2005. There's more demand to live inside the beltway than outside the beltway. Younger generations have different expectations for where housing should be and will pay for it - taking an older, uglier, outdated house over a bigger and newer one a bit further out. Perceptions of schools also change. Eastern MoCo schools have become less desirable.


This. The population has increased, leading to much more traffic. Young families are trying out DC schools, whereas before they moved to the burbs or went private. Those that can afford it are moving to upper NW or close-in burbs. There's not as much interest in living further out given the reality of longer commutes (and yes, not everyone works in DC, but this partly explains less demand for further out areas).

Updates do become undesirable quickly now. If I redid my house in 2005 I would probably have dark granite and cherry cabinets which look incredibly dated now. This look was so ubiquitous that is defined not only the 90s but a lot of the 2000s. Whenever something becomes very common and then is replaced by the new trend, it dates quickly. If you did your remodel on the end cusp of a trend that you were seeing everywhere it will be dated in a decade too. Buyers do avoid homes like these. They would rather have something on trend or something so old that price is low enough that they can do their own updates. The death hole is in the middle for sellers.

On overall desirability its the decline of MCPS and the growth in private industry jobs in NOVA along with the traffic. People just can't take the commute into VA it has gotten so bad.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Updates don't become that undesirable so quickly. Most people are still fine with kitchens from 2005. It's not what keeps people from buying houses.

The real changes are demographics and desirability. There's far more interest to living in DC compared to 2005. There's more demand to live inside the beltway than outside the beltway. Younger generations have different expectations for where housing should be and will pay for it - taking an older, uglier, outdated house over a bigger and newer one a bit further out. Perceptions of schools also change. Eastern MoCo schools have become less desirable.


This. The population has increased, leading to much more traffic. Young families are trying out DC schools, whereas before they moved to the burbs or went private. Those that can afford it are moving to upper NW or close-in burbs. There's not as much interest in living further out given the reality of longer commutes (and yes, not everyone works in DC, but this partly explains less demand for further out areas).

Updates do become undesirable quickly now. If I redid my house in 2005 I would probably have dark granite and cherry cabinets which look incredibly dated now. This look was so ubiquitous that is defined not only the 90s but a lot of the 2000s. Whenever something becomes very common and then is replaced by the new trend, it dates quickly. If you did your remodel on the end cusp of a trend that you were seeing everywhere it will be dated in a decade too. Buyers do avoid homes like these. They would rather have something on trend or something so old that price is low enough that they can do their own updates. The death hole is in the middle for sellers.

On overall desirability its the decline of MCPS and the growth in private industry jobs in NOVA along with the traffic. People just can't take the commute into VA it has gotten so bad.

Those are minor nitpicking points. Kitchens can be changed. Locations cannot. And that is what drives everything more than anything else.

Outdated and cramped house in a great school district close to work will sell for more than a bigger and updated house with a longer commute and/or lesser schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Updates don't become that undesirable so quickly. Most people are still fine with kitchens from 2005. It's not what keeps people from buying houses.

The real changes are demographics and desirability. There's far more interest to living in DC compared to 2005. There's more demand to live inside the beltway than outside the beltway. Younger generations have different expectations for where housing should be and will pay for it - taking an older, uglier, outdated house over a bigger and newer one a bit further out. Perceptions of schools also change. Eastern MoCo schools have become less desirable.


This. The population has increased, leading to much more traffic. Young families are trying out DC schools, whereas before they moved to the burbs or went private. Those that can afford it are moving to upper NW or close-in burbs. There's not as much interest in living further out given the reality of longer commutes (and yes, not everyone works in DC, but this partly explains less demand for further out areas).

Updates do become undesirable quickly now. If I redid my house in 2005 I would probably have dark granite and cherry cabinets which look incredibly dated now. This look was so ubiquitous that is defined not only the 90s but a lot of the 2000s. Whenever something becomes very common and then is replaced by the new trend, it dates quickly. If you did your remodel on the end cusp of a trend that you were seeing everywhere it will be dated in a decade too. Buyers do avoid homes like these. They would rather have something on trend or something so old that price is low enough that they can do their own updates. The death hole is in the middle for sellers.

On overall desirability its the decline of MCPS and the growth in private industry jobs in NOVA along with the traffic. People just can't take the commute into VA it has gotten so bad.

Those are minor nitpicking points. Kitchens can be changed. Locations cannot. And that is what drives everything more than anything else.

Outdated and cramped house in a great school district close to work will sell for more than a bigger and updated house with a longer commute and/or lesser schools.

Completely agree. We had an entry level budget for a SFH in NW DC in-boundary for Wilson. We could not have cared less what the specific finishes were like--they were dated, but that doesn't prevent bidding wars in popular close-in areas.

[Anonymous]

"Updates do become undesirable quickly now. If I redid my house in 2005 I would probably have dark granite and cherry cabinets which look incredibly dated now. This look was so ubiquitous that is defined not only the 90s but a lot of the 2000s. Whenever something becomes very common and then is replaced by the new trend, it dates quickly. If you did your remodel on the end cusp of a trend that you were seeing everywhere it will be dated in a decade too. Buyers do avoid homes like these. They would rather have something on trend or something so old that price is low enough that they can do their own updates. The death hole is in the middle for sellers."

Thanks HGTV. No one used to care about these things.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:It always follows the school system. MCPS schools have declined significantly last 10 years or so. You can thank your county politicians.

Fairfax resident here, so no dog in this fight. I could be wrong, but that seems like a huge overstatement. We have tons of friends in MoCo, and they pretty much all sing the praises of their neighborhood elementary schools. And even if all those "W" schools have dropped, they're still some of the best high schools in the whole area. We have school issues in FCPS, and there were issues when we lived in APS too. Even if folks weren't as happy with MCPS, where exactly would they move to? Especially in MD, where you don't have nearly as many choices if you want to keep the commute under an hour.

[Anonymous]

Completely agree. We had an entry level budget for a SFH in NW DC in-boundary for Wilson. We could not have cared less what the specific finishes were like--they were dated, but that doesn't prevent bidding wars in popular close-in areas.

I think the point is that in a desirable area like NW DC the updates matter less but in an undesirable area like MOCO updates matter more. There is more inventory, prices are dropping, fewer buyers etc so buyers can be picky.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
I have no idea where you are in Bethesda, or what data you're looking at, OP, but permit me to doubt you!

I live a stone's throw from downtown Bethesda, and real estate prices keep rising. We are looking for a larger house, and are priced out of much our own neighborhood. Friends and acquaintances trying to move into Bethesda for the schools are having great difficulties finding anything affordable.

I have to agree with Op based on personal experience. Sold our Bethesda house earlier this year, for asking. Following more recent sales/trends, I see that houses comparable to my previous house are selling for at least 150,000 less than I got for my home. There just isn't enough difference in the comps to justify such a difference. Something is definitely going on in MC.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:It always follows the school system. MCPS schools have declined significantly last 10 years or so. You can thank your county politicians.

Fairfax resident here, so no dog in this fight. I could be wrong, but that seems like a huge overstatement. We have tons of friends in MoCo, and they pretty much all sing the praises of their neighborhood elementary schools. And even if all those "W" schools have dropped, they're still some of the best high schools in the whole area. We have school issues in FCPS, and there were issues when we lived in APS too. Even if folks weren't as happy with MCPS, where exactly would they move to? Especially in MD, where you don't have nearly as many choices if you want to keep the commute under an hour.

Hmmm, my sister lives in Bethesda and constantly tells me how disappointed she has become with the number of children in her neighborhood that now attend privates. Private school enrollment is definitely up among MCPS parents, just check all the threads on this board in the last couple of weeks discussing, schools, open houses, admissions, etc.

[Anonymous]

Did you all not read the Trump tax plan? It hurts higher income, higher price home buyers who tend to be "middle class" in this area. A lot of mortgage interest that was previously deductible won't be now.

My "low end" under 500k neighborhood in MoCo near Aspen hill and Glenmont is actually having some appreciation now. The foreclosures from the great recession have cleared out, and this summer the rentals started to be fixed up and sold, to be used as sfh again.