As enrollment declines, MCPS projects drop of nearly 7,000 students (6%) by 2032

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t get why they allowed Blair to be overcapacity with the magnet. This whole thing is about correcting overcapacity, but they created programs to exactly generate the overcapacity.

The goal is for WJ not to be overcrowded, not the DCC schools. The magnet isn't a lot of kids. Its just a few hundred.

I thought it was 100 per year, so 400 total. Blair has 500 kids transferring in, so the magnet would appear to be a large portion of the transfers.

It’s the dcc lottery.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Any way to get the racial breakdown aggregated out of that data for students leaving??? Would be interesting wouldn't it!?

It's not going to show anything interesting. As the article points out, this is the result of national trendlines around birth rates.

+1
Enrollment is going down everywhere including the White areas. White people aren't having a lot of babies.

Instead keeping dogs to take walks around the neighborhood. Man's "best" friend.

[Anonymous]

7000 kids over 211 schools is like 1 classroom per school.

[Anonymous]

Did anyone else read this and think they missed another major driver of the decline?

Birth rates may be declining, but many families are opting out of MCPS publics due to large class sizes.

It’s chicken and egg. Without building more schools, class sizes won’t reduce, and families will keep opting out of the system — just as the county attracts more new families to move in with relentless new construction in Bethesda, Rockville, etc.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Did anyone else read this and think they missed another major driver of the decline?

Birth rates may be declining, but many families are opting out of MCPS publics due to large class sizes.

It’s chicken and egg. Without building more schools, class sizes won’t reduce, and families will keep opting out of the system — just as the county attracts more new families to move in with relentless new construction in Bethesda, Rockville, etc.

I mean, I realize that explanation confirms your priors, but there is no data behind it. On the other hand, falling birth rates are easily quantifiable.

If you could demonstrate that birth rates are NOT falling in Montgomery County, and/or that birth rates remain high for the age cohorts with the highest attrition, you might be able to make a case.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Did anyone else read this and think they missed another major driver of the decline?

Birth rates may be declining, but many families are opting out of MCPS publics due to large class sizes.

It’s chicken and egg. Without building more schools, class sizes won’t reduce, and families will keep opting out of the system — just as the county attracts more new families to move in with relentless new construction in Bethesda, Rockville, etc.

Nowhere in the article does it say that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Did anyone else read this and think they missed another major driver of the decline?

Birth rates may be declining, but many families are opting out of MCPS publics due to large class sizes.

It’s chicken and egg. Without building more schools, class sizes won’t reduce, and families will keep opting out of the system — just as the county attracts more new families to move in with relentless new construction in Bethesda, Rockville, etc.

Nowhere in the article does it say that.

It's mainly declining birth rates and international students.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Did anyone else read this and think they missed another major driver of the decline?

Birth rates may be declining, but many families are opting out of MCPS publics due to large class sizes.

It’s chicken and egg. Without building more schools, class sizes won’t reduce, and families will keep opting out of the system — just as the county attracts more new families to move in with relentless new construction in Bethesda, Rockville, etc.

Latin America birth rates? Meadow Hall went from 118% to 93% hmm...

Corporations seem to prefer kids from schools in other countries, so I guess we just import fully trained adults. No need for schools.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I don’t get why they allowed Blair to be overcapacity with the magnet. This whole thing is about correcting overcapacity, but they created programs to exactly generate the overcapacity.

The goal is for WJ not to be overcrowded, not the DCC schools. The magnet isn't a lot of kids. Its just a few hundred.

I thought it was 100 per year, so 400 total. Blair has 500 kids transferring in, so the magnet would appear to be a large portion of the transfers.

It’s the dcc lottery.

The magnet has 440 kids.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://bethesdamagazine.com/2025/11/04/mcps-enrollment-declines/

Enrollment in Montgomery County Public Schools (MCPS) decreased by 2,641 students from 2024–2025 to 2025-2026, and the decline is expected to continue with the district projecting a drop of 7,000 additional students (6%) over the next six years, according to MCPS officials.

This is after ~4% job since 2018

Is it still the "largest school district in MD"?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:https://bethesdamagazine.com/2025/11/04/mcps-enrollment-declines/

Enrollment in Montgomery County Public Schools (MCPS) decreased by 2,641 students from 2024–2025 to 2025-2026, and the decline is expected to continue with the district projecting a drop of 7,000 additional students (6%) over the next six years, according to MCPS officials.

This is after ~4% job since 2018

Is it still the "largest school district in MD"?

Yes, by far. PG has ~133,000.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Did anyone else read this and think they missed another major driver of the decline?

Birth rates may be declining, but many families are opting out of MCPS publics due to large class sizes.

It’s chicken and egg. Without building more schools, class sizes won’t reduce, and families will keep opting out of the system — just as the county attracts more new families to move in with relentless new construction in Bethesda, Rockville, etc.

Nowhere in the article does it say that.

It's mainly declining birth rates and international students.

It's also the net migration out of Maryland, to more affordable states.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:That would be slightly lower than the projected decline in total k-12 enrollment nationally: https://nces.ed.gov/programs/PES/section-1.asp

People are having fewer kids.

This.

[Anonymous]

I think there is a shift to private among the educated and upper middle class. In my neighborhood, the private schools saw and maintained sognificant enrollment following covid. I have a lot of educated middle class friends throughout the country who are realizing their learning disabled kids are not getting a good education in public and are making difficult financial decisions to do private. Some of my friends have kids who ate sensitive/anxious and can't handle the increasingly disruptive chaotic classrooms in public.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think there is a shift to private among the educated and upper middle class. In my neighborhood, the private schools saw and maintained sognificant enrollment following covid. I have a lot of educated middle class friends throughout the country who are realizing their learning disabled kids are not getting a good education in public and are making difficult financial decisions to do private. Some of my friends have kids who ate sensitive/anxious and can't handle the increasingly disruptive chaotic classrooms in public.

It also projects a significant drop in private school enrollment.