2028 Girls Lacrosse

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DG here. The stage is set for the final weekend of the NGLL Mid-Atlantic season, with a blockbuster game on the marquee. Will add a follow up post later this week with the rest of the games, but let’s cut right to the chase:

--Coppermine vs. Hero’s Green: Two 7-0 heavyweights slug it out for the regular season title and the #1 seed. These teams have been extremely competitive this season, know each other well, and always leave it on the field for this matchup.

Coppermine was dominant during the 2022-2023 season, winning all three official match ups, the last by 6 goals at Live Love Lax. While both clubs added talent in the offseason, Hero’s pulled off the big upset at the Fall Mid-Atlantic showcase in November, turning the tables 3-1 on Coppermine, and announcing a new, more competitive, era with the dominant 2028 team.

The battles continued back and forth over the indoor season (yes, purists, I know it doesn’t count), with a hard-fought OT win for Coppermine at the Indoor Nationals at Spooky Nook in January, followed by a bit easier victory for Hero’s Green in the BWI Winter League HS-B finale the next month.

As for NGLL common opponents, both teams played M&D Black and Red. Coppermine beat Black by 5, and Red by 3 goals (strangely for the second straight time). Hero’s squeaked by Black by 2, and thumped Red by 9. The two teams have the exact same Goals Against (30), and are within 3 on Goals Scored, although Hero’s schedule was a bit more challenging.

Both teams are strong in every phase, each have an athlete a cut above the rest, and both have multiple options on attack, good goaltending, solid coaching and good schemes.

When they start strong and are rolling, Coppermine remains an unstoppable force with too many weapons, but they can become a bit one-dimensional when they get behind and feel pressed--as in their shock loss to Aces at Summer Genesis last year.

Hero’s won’t wilt under pressure and remains disciplined in their attack and their defensive structure, even against the best opponents, and seem to shrug off mistakes, bad luck, and adverse calls. Sometimes they can struggle to crank up their attack, but if their motion and cutting game is working and their attackers are being utilized, they are extremely effective.

There is very little to separate these two teams. I’m perplexed by Coppermine’s close games with CCL and M&D Red, and I think they might need a jolt to play their best. Hero's has been pushed a bit by Sky Walkers and Pride, in addition to M&D Black (also played MDU), and maybe more prepared for a close game.

Taking it all into account, factoring in recent performance and trend lines, I will have to go with Hero’s Green.

Hero’s Green -1 (9-8)

(Bonus Picks: If Hero's Green does pull it off, I predict that Coppermine responds by going on to win the playoffs and the National Championship.)

Hero’s doesn’t have enough to put up 9 goals on Coppermine. Nice write up but Coppermine takes this game and here’s why.

Attack: Advantage Coppermine
Middies: Huge advantage Coppermine, no one comes close
Defense: Hero’s biggest weakness and a strength of Coppermine
Goalies: slight advantage Hero’s but not enough to make the difference.

Coppermine takes it 7-4, goes on to win NGLL mid Atlantic.

Huh? If Coppermine has advantages on D, M and A, explain how Hero’s has beaten Coppermine in 2 of their last 3 games? Also saying that D is Hero’s biggest weakness is not justified by any empirical evidence - Hero’s and Coppermins have both given up 30 goals in NGLL, same number of games, and Hero’s had a slightly harder schedule since they didn’t play MC Elite. I think Coppermine has a slight advantage, but these teams match up pretty well at every position.

Huh is right. Hero’s parents grasping for anything with indoor and shortened game wins.

Here’s your data:

The last 3 Real full field, full length outdoor games against hero’s:

Coppermine by 2
Coppermine by 2
Coppermine by 6

Spooky book and BWI league are not the same as an outdoor full field game. The DC teams don’t even play in the BWI league.

What data does data guy have that others don’t? Continuing to just tout goals against?

While Hero’s has improved, Coppermine picked up one of the best players in the country. They beat M&D easily this spring while Hero’s did not.

There are many differences between indoor and outdoor to consider, with one clear difference being draws only taken at the beginning of each half in indoor. There is generally not much talk on this forum about draw controls, except that there was some talk earlier in the season about Heros's having trouble with Pride on the draw in their March matchup. Though draws were not mentioned in the earlier analyses about the upcoming Coppermine vs Hero's matchup, my assumption is Coppermine has an advantage on the draw that has benefited them more in the full field games than the indoor games. Can anyone validate my assumption that Coppermine would be presumed to have the advantage on draw controls?

Nailed it. Coppermines greatest strength is controlling the draw in full length games where there’s many draw opportunities. Don’t bring facts here for the Hero’s parents.

And what’s the deal with the M&D red game? You do realize the top teams play their subs who don’t start or get as much playing time in games against lesser opponents? Against the top teams, starters play and rarely come out. More facts and data on why Coppermine comes out on top.

Hero’s has improved but so has Coppermine. Amazing that people question a team that has lost less than a handful times in the past 3 years and are the National champs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DG here. The stage is set for the final weekend of the NGLL Mid-Atlantic season, with a blockbuster game on the marquee. Will add a follow up post later this week with the rest of the games, but let’s cut right to the chase:

--Coppermine vs. Hero’s Green: Two 7-0 heavyweights slug it out for the regular season title and the #1 seed. These teams have been extremely competitive this season, know each other well, and always leave it on the field for this matchup.

Coppermine was dominant during the 2022-2023 season, winning all three official match ups, the last by 6 goals at Live Love Lax. While both clubs added talent in the offseason, Hero’s pulled off the big upset at the Fall Mid-Atlantic showcase in November, turning the tables 3-1 on Coppermine, and announcing a new, more competitive, era with the dominant 2028 team.

The battles continued back and forth over the indoor season (yes, purists, I know it doesn’t count), with a hard-fought OT win for Coppermine at the Indoor Nationals at Spooky Nook in January, followed by a bit easier victory for Hero’s Green in the BWI Winter League HS-B finale the next month.

As for NGLL common opponents, both teams played M&D Black and Red. Coppermine beat Black by 5, and Red by 3 goals (strangely for the second straight time). Hero’s squeaked by Black by 2, and thumped Red by 9. The two teams have the exact same Goals Against (30), and are within 3 on Goals Scored, although Hero’s schedule was a bit more challenging.

Both teams are strong in every phase, each have an athlete a cut above the rest, and both have multiple options on attack, good goaltending, solid coaching and good schemes.

When they start strong and are rolling, Coppermine remains an unstoppable force with too many weapons, but they can become a bit one-dimensional when they get behind and feel pressed--as in their shock loss to Aces at Summer Genesis last year.

Hero’s won’t wilt under pressure and remains disciplined in their attack and their defensive structure, even against the best opponents, and seem to shrug off mistakes, bad luck, and adverse calls. Sometimes they can struggle to crank up their attack, but if their motion and cutting game is working and their attackers are being utilized, they are extremely effective.

There is very little to separate these two teams. I’m perplexed by Coppermine’s close games with CCL and M&D Red, and I think they might need a jolt to play their best. Hero's has been pushed a bit by Sky Walkers and Pride, in addition to M&D Black (also played MDU), and maybe more prepared for a close game.

Taking it all into account, factoring in recent performance and trend lines, I will have to go with Hero’s Green.

Hero’s Green -1 (9-8)

(Bonus Picks: If Hero's Green does pull it off, I predict that Coppermine responds by going on to win the playoffs and the National Championship.)

Hero’s doesn’t have enough to put up 9 goals on Coppermine. Nice write up but Coppermine takes this game and here’s why.

Attack: Advantage Coppermine
Middies: Huge advantage Coppermine, no one comes close
Defense: Hero’s biggest weakness and a strength of Coppermine
Goalies: slight advantage Hero’s but not enough to make the difference.

Coppermine takes it 7-4, goes on to win NGLL mid Atlantic.

Huh? If Coppermine has advantages on D, M and A, explain how Hero’s has beaten Coppermine in 2 of their last 3 games? Also saying that D is Hero’s biggest weakness is not justified by any empirical evidence - Hero’s and Coppermins have both given up 30 goals in NGLL, same number of games, and Hero’s had a slightly harder schedule since they didn’t play MC Elite. I think Coppermine has a slight advantage, but these teams match up pretty well at every position.

Huh is right. Hero’s parents grasping for anything with indoor and shortened game wins.

Here’s your data:

The last 3 Real full field, full length outdoor games against hero’s:

Coppermine by 2
Coppermine by 2
Coppermine by 6

Spooky book and BWI league are not the same as an outdoor full field game. The DC teams don’t even play in the BWI league.

What data does data guy have that others don’t? Continuing to just tout goals against?

While Hero’s has improved, Coppermine picked up one of the best players in the country. They beat M&D easily this spring while Hero’s did not.

There are many differences between indoor and outdoor to consider, with one clear difference being draws only taken at the beginning of each half in indoor. There is generally not much talk on this forum about draw controls, except that there was some talk earlier in the season about Heros's having trouble with Pride on the draw in their March matchup. Though draws were not mentioned in the earlier analyses about the upcoming Coppermine vs Hero's matchup, my assumption is Coppermine has an advantage on the draw that has benefited them more in the full field games than the indoor games. Can anyone validate my assumption that Coppermine would be presumed to have the advantage on draw controls?

Nailed it. Coppermines greatest strength is controlling the draw in full length games where there’s many draw opportunities. Don’t bring facts here for the Hero’s parents.

And what’s the deal with the M&D red game? You do realize the top teams play their subs who don’t start or get as much playing time in games against lesser opponents? Against the top teams, starters play and rarely come out. More facts and data on why Coppermine comes out on top.

Hero’s has improved but so has Coppermine. Amazing that people question a team that has lost less than a handful times in the past 3 years and are the National champs.

With the addition of #12 Coppermine has been slightly better than most on the draw, but it is not accurate that this is some great strength of theirs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DG here. The stage is set for the final weekend of the NGLL Mid-Atlantic season, with a blockbuster game on the marquee. Will add a follow up post later this week with the rest of the games, but let’s cut right to the chase:

--Coppermine vs. Hero’s Green: Two 7-0 heavyweights slug it out for the regular season title and the #1 seed. These teams have been extremely competitive this season, know each other well, and always leave it on the field for this matchup.

Coppermine was dominant during the 2022-2023 season, winning all three official match ups, the last by 6 goals at Live Love Lax. While both clubs added talent in the offseason, Hero’s pulled off the big upset at the Fall Mid-Atlantic showcase in November, turning the tables 3-1 on Coppermine, and announcing a new, more competitive, era with the dominant 2028 team.

The battles continued back and forth over the indoor season (yes, purists, I know it doesn’t count), with a hard-fought OT win for Coppermine at the Indoor Nationals at Spooky Nook in January, followed by a bit easier victory for Hero’s Green in the BWI Winter League HS-B finale the next month.

As for NGLL common opponents, both teams played M&D Black and Red. Coppermine beat Black by 5, and Red by 3 goals (strangely for the second straight time). Hero’s squeaked by Black by 2, and thumped Red by 9. The two teams have the exact same Goals Against (30), and are within 3 on Goals Scored, although Hero’s schedule was a bit more challenging.

Both teams are strong in every phase, each have an athlete a cut above the rest, and both have multiple options on attack, good goaltending, solid coaching and good schemes.

When they start strong and are rolling, Coppermine remains an unstoppable force with too many weapons, but they can become a bit one-dimensional when they get behind and feel pressed--as in their shock loss to Aces at Summer Genesis last year.

Hero’s won’t wilt under pressure and remains disciplined in their attack and their defensive structure, even against the best opponents, and seem to shrug off mistakes, bad luck, and adverse calls. Sometimes they can struggle to crank up their attack, but if their motion and cutting game is working and their attackers are being utilized, they are extremely effective.

There is very little to separate these two teams. I’m perplexed by Coppermine’s close games with CCL and M&D Red, and I think they might need a jolt to play their best. Hero's has been pushed a bit by Sky Walkers and Pride, in addition to M&D Black (also played MDU), and maybe more prepared for a close game.

Taking it all into account, factoring in recent performance and trend lines, I will have to go with Hero’s Green.

Hero’s Green -1 (9-8)

(Bonus Picks: If Hero's Green does pull it off, I predict that Coppermine responds by going on to win the playoffs and the National Championship.)

I think Coppermine comes out the winner by 2.

The reason Coppermine has had tight games with lower competition is because they are trying to spread the ball around more (to their credit) which results in more people touching the ball and a greater number of mistakes. However, when they play top competition, they tighten things up, same 3 midis play the whole time, and fewer people are involved in generating offense. In M&D game they shut a player for pretty much entire game, so wouldn't put it past them to try and deny Hero's top player. Coppermine will come in with a strategy and do what they have to do to win.

I have to disagree in part. Substitution strategy is one thing, and natural to have the best players on the field against a top rival. I actually think the tendency that you describe as a positive--when Coppermine "tightens up", and "fewer people are involved in the offense"--is actually when they limit their scoring options and pace. I think that tendency grinds their offense down a bit, and is a reason why Hero's has a chance to win this game.

[Anonymous]

Agreed. Heros is weak on the draw. And very inconsistent. In a game against any competitive team, winning the draw and gaining possession is who will win in the end.

On the plus, Heros has a deep team full of middies and attacks (when utilized) that can score. No subbing line is weak on any side of the field.

Each team has a stand out middie. But those middies need to learn they have a whole team that can also score. They don't need to take it all on themselves. I see this being an issue with both teams when I watch them play. You don't win games at this level by one player forcing to goal and not using your teammates.

If both teams play as a team, and not as individuals it will be a fun game to watch.

But due to Heros weak draw control, I pick Coppermine this weekend and to win it all at the Championship.

[Anonymous]

I'm going with Data Guy's analysis.

If you watch these teams every week, you're a parent and you're biased. If you don't watch the teams regularly, you have no idea what you're talking about.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm going with Data Guy's analysis.

If you watch these teams every week, you're a parent and you're biased. If you don't watch the teams regularly, you have no idea what you're talking about.

Spot on.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm going with Data Guy's analysis.

If you watch these teams every week, you're a parent and you're biased. If you don't watch the teams regularly, you have no idea what you're talking about.

So Data Guy is a parent and biased based on the detailed analysis? We know where you stand, which is the latter.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm going with Data Guy's analysis.

If you watch these teams every week, you're a parent and you're biased. If you don't watch the teams regularly, you have no idea what you're talking about.

So Data Guy is a parent and biased based on the detailed analysis? We know where you stand, which is the latter.

His analysis was a little more subjective this week than most, but I still think an argument based on a few numbers is more rational that one built on hopes and dreams.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm going with Data Guy's analysis.

If you watch these teams every week, you're a parent and you're biased. If you don't watch the teams regularly, you have no idea what you're talking about.

So Data Guy is a parent and biased based on the detailed analysis? We know where you stand, which is the latter.

His analysis was a little more subjective this week than most, but I still think an argument based on a few numbers is more rational that one built on hopes and dreams.

Or defensiveness and disdain

[Anonymous]

Asides from the big game can we get Data Guys predictions on the other games? What are odds Skywalkers gets a 4th loss and MDU East sneaks in at #8?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm going with Data Guy's analysis.

If you watch these teams every week, you're a parent and you're biased. If you don't watch the teams regularly, you have no idea what you're talking about.

So Data Guy is a parent and biased based on the detailed analysis? We know where you stand, which is the latter.

God, I hope DG is a parent!

[Anonymous]

Coppermine/HG should be a good game between two of the top teams in the country. Hope it’s a good game. But I, too, am interested in DG’s breakdown of the other games. Let’s go, DG.

[Anonymous]

This is sure to bring out trolls, but each time I’ve watched Coppermine and Hero’s play I’ve seen nothing but respect and great sportsmanship by both teams. Most of these girls know each other and are friends and have been gracious in winning or losing. I expect it will be the same on Saturday.

[Anonymous]

Just let the girls play. The strength in the class won’t be scene until they get to HS and if they make an impact and get recruited. Essentially that is the point of all of this anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Just let the girls play. The strength in the class won’t be scene until they get to HS and if they make an impact and get recruited. Essentially that is the point of all of this anyway.

Ok then.