2028 Girls Lacrosse

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DG here. The stage is set for the final weekend of the NGLL Mid-Atlantic season, with a blockbuster game on the marquee. Will add a follow up post later this week with the rest of the games, but let’s cut right to the chase:

--Coppermine vs. Hero’s Green: Two 7-0 heavyweights slug it out for the regular season title and the #1 seed. These teams have been extremely competitive this season, know each other well, and always leave it on the field for this matchup.

Coppermine was dominant during the 2022-2023 season, winning all three official match ups, the last by 6 goals at Live Love Lax. While both clubs added talent in the offseason, Hero’s pulled off the big upset at the Fall Mid-Atlantic showcase in November, turning the tables 3-1 on Coppermine, and announcing a new, more competitive, era with the dominant 2028 team.

The battles continued back and forth over the indoor season (yes, purists, I know it doesn’t count), with a hard-fought OT win for Coppermine at the Indoor Nationals at Spooky Nook in January, followed by a bit easier victory for Hero’s Green in the BWI Winter League HS-B finale the next month.

As for NGLL common opponents, both teams played M&D Black and Red. Coppermine beat Black by 5, and Red by 3 goals (strangely for the second straight time). Hero’s squeaked by Black by 2, and thumped Red by 9. The two teams have the exact same Goals Against (30), and are within 3 on Goals Scored, although Hero’s schedule was a bit more challenging.

Both teams are strong in every phase, each have an athlete a cut above the rest, and both have multiple options on attack, good goaltending, solid coaching and good schemes.

When they start strong and are rolling, Coppermine remains an unstoppable force with too many weapons, but they can become a bit one-dimensional when they get behind and feel pressed--as in their shock loss to Aces at Summer Genesis last year.

Hero’s won’t wilt under pressure and remains disciplined in their attack and their defensive structure, even against the best opponents, and seem to shrug off mistakes, bad luck, and adverse calls. Sometimes they can struggle to crank up their attack, but if their motion and cutting game is working and their attackers are being utilized, they are extremely effective.

There is very little to separate these two teams. I’m perplexed by Coppermine’s close games with CCL and M&D Red, and I think they might need a jolt to play their best. Hero's has been pushed a bit by Sky Walkers and Pride, in addition to M&D Black (also played MDU), and maybe more prepared for a close game.

Taking it all into account, factoring in recent performance and trend lines, I will have to go with Hero’s Green.

Hero’s Green -1 (9-8)

(Bonus Picks: If Hero's Green does pull it off, I predict that Coppermine responds by going on to win the playoffs and the National Championship.)

I would love to know who you are. You really are dialed in. I really did bot pay much attention to your previous posts but this is incredibly insightful. Thanks for the breakdown.

[Anonymous]

Data Guy: tell us one thing - will you be at the Hero’s v Coppermine game?

[Anonymous]

Can’t make it big math festival down at the promenade. I’ll be sending My compadre erroneous data guy. My compadre erroneous data guy. Keep an eye out for him. He was a monocle and a large top head.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can’t make it big math festival down at the promenade. I’ll be sending My compadre erroneous data guy. My compadre erroneous data guy. Keep an eye out for him. He was a monocle and a large top head.

So you are a Pride or Stars dad. Big fan, nonetheless.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DG here. The stage is set for the final weekend of the NGLL Mid-Atlantic season, with a blockbuster game on the marquee. Will add a follow up post later this week with the rest of the games, but let’s cut right to the chase:

--Coppermine vs. Hero’s Green: Two 7-0 heavyweights slug it out for the regular season title and the #1 seed. These teams have been extremely competitive this season, know each other well, and always leave it on the field for this matchup.

Coppermine was dominant during the 2022-2023 season, winning all three official match ups, the last by 6 goals at Live Love Lax. While both clubs added talent in the offseason, Hero’s pulled off the big upset at the Fall Mid-Atlantic showcase in November, turning the tables 3-1 on Coppermine, and announcing a new, more competitive, era with the dominant 2028 team.

The battles continued back and forth over the indoor season (yes, purists, I know it doesn’t count), with a hard-fought OT win for Coppermine at the Indoor Nationals at Spooky Nook in January, followed by a bit easier victory for Hero’s Green in the BWI Winter League HS-B finale the next month.

As for NGLL common opponents, both teams played M&D Black and Red. Coppermine beat Black by 5, and Red by 3 goals (strangely for the second straight time). Hero’s squeaked by Black by 2, and thumped Red by 9. The two teams have the exact same Goals Against (30), and are within 3 on Goals Scored, although Hero’s schedule was a bit more challenging.

Both teams are strong in every phase, each have an athlete a cut above the rest, and both have multiple options on attack, good goaltending, solid coaching and good schemes.

When they start strong and are rolling, Coppermine remains an unstoppable force with too many weapons, but they can become a bit one-dimensional when they get behind and feel pressed--as in their shock loss to Aces at Summer Genesis last year.

Hero’s won’t wilt under pressure and remains disciplined in their attack and their defensive structure, even against the best opponents, and seem to shrug off mistakes, bad luck, and adverse calls. Sometimes they can struggle to crank up their attack, but if their motion and cutting game is working and their attackers are being utilized, they are extremely effective.

There is very little to separate these two teams. I’m perplexed by Coppermine’s close games with CCL and M&D Red, and I think they might need a jolt to play their best. Hero's has been pushed a bit by Sky Walkers and Pride, in addition to M&D Black (also played MDU), and maybe more prepared for a close game.

Taking it all into account, factoring in recent performance and trend lines, I will have to go with Hero’s Green.

Hero’s Green -1 (9-8)

(Bonus Picks: If Hero's Green does pull it off, I predict that Coppermine responds by going on to win the playoffs and the National Championship.)

Hero’s doesn’t have enough to put up 9 goals on Coppermine. Nice write up but Coppermine takes this game and here’s why.

Attack: Advantage Coppermine
Middies: Huge advantage Coppermine, no one comes close
Defense: Hero’s biggest weakness and a strength of Coppermine
Goalies: slight advantage Hero’s but not enough to make the difference.

Coppermine takes it 7-4, goes on to win NGLL mid Atlantic.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DG here. The stage is set for the final weekend of the NGLL Mid-Atlantic season, with a blockbuster game on the marquee. Will add a follow up post later this week with the rest of the games, but let’s cut right to the chase:

--Coppermine vs. Hero’s Green: Two 7-0 heavyweights slug it out for the regular season title and the #1 seed. These teams have been extremely competitive this season, know each other well, and always leave it on the field for this matchup.

Coppermine was dominant during the 2022-2023 season, winning all three official match ups, the last by 6 goals at Live Love Lax. While both clubs added talent in the offseason, Hero’s pulled off the big upset at the Fall Mid-Atlantic showcase in November, turning the tables 3-1 on Coppermine, and announcing a new, more competitive, era with the dominant 2028 team.

The battles continued back and forth over the indoor season (yes, purists, I know it doesn’t count), with a hard-fought OT win for Coppermine at the Indoor Nationals at Spooky Nook in January, followed by a bit easier victory for Hero’s Green in the BWI Winter League HS-B finale the next month.

As for NGLL common opponents, both teams played M&D Black and Red. Coppermine beat Black by 5, and Red by 3 goals (strangely for the second straight time). Hero’s squeaked by Black by 2, and thumped Red by 9. The two teams have the exact same Goals Against (30), and are within 3 on Goals Scored, although Hero’s schedule was a bit more challenging.

Both teams are strong in every phase, each have an athlete a cut above the rest, and both have multiple options on attack, good goaltending, solid coaching and good schemes.

When they start strong and are rolling, Coppermine remains an unstoppable force with too many weapons, but they can become a bit one-dimensional when they get behind and feel pressed--as in their shock loss to Aces at Summer Genesis last year.

Hero’s won’t wilt under pressure and remains disciplined in their attack and their defensive structure, even against the best opponents, and seem to shrug off mistakes, bad luck, and adverse calls. Sometimes they can struggle to crank up their attack, but if their motion and cutting game is working and their attackers are being utilized, they are extremely effective.

There is very little to separate these two teams. I’m perplexed by Coppermine’s close games with CCL and M&D Red, and I think they might need a jolt to play their best. Hero's has been pushed a bit by Sky Walkers and Pride, in addition to M&D Black (also played MDU), and maybe more prepared for a close game.

Taking it all into account, factoring in recent performance and trend lines, I will have to go with Hero’s Green.

Hero’s Green -1 (9-8)

(Bonus Picks: If Hero's Green does pull it off, I predict that Coppermine responds by going on to win the playoffs and the National Championship.)

Hero’s doesn’t have enough to put up 9 goals on Coppermine. Nice write up but Coppermine takes this game and here’s why.

Attack: Advantage Coppermine
Middies: Huge advantage Coppermine, no one comes close
Defense: Hero’s biggest weakness and a strength of Coppermine
Goalies: slight advantage Hero’s but not enough to make the difference.

Coppermine takes it 7-4, goes on to win NGLL mid Atlantic.

Huh? If Coppermine has advantages on D, M and A, explain how Hero’s has beaten Coppermine in 2 of their last 3 games? Also saying that D is Hero’s biggest weakness is not justified by any empirical evidence - Hero’s and Coppermins have both given up 30 goals in NGLL, same number of games, and Hero’s had a slightly harder schedule since they didn’t play MC Elite. I think Coppermine has a slight advantage, but these teams match up pretty well at every position.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DG here. The stage is set for the final weekend of the NGLL Mid-Atlantic season, with a blockbuster game on the marquee. Will add a follow up post later this week with the rest of the games, but let’s cut right to the chase:

--Coppermine vs. Hero’s Green: Two 7-0 heavyweights slug it out for the regular season title and the #1 seed. These teams have been extremely competitive this season, know each other well, and always leave it on the field for this matchup.

Coppermine was dominant during the 2022-2023 season, winning all three official match ups, the last by 6 goals at Live Love Lax. While both clubs added talent in the offseason, Hero’s pulled off the big upset at the Fall Mid-Atlantic showcase in November, turning the tables 3-1 on Coppermine, and announcing a new, more competitive, era with the dominant 2028 team.

The battles continued back and forth over the indoor season (yes, purists, I know it doesn’t count), with a hard-fought OT win for Coppermine at the Indoor Nationals at Spooky Nook in January, followed by a bit easier victory for Hero’s Green in the BWI Winter League HS-B finale the next month.

As for NGLL common opponents, both teams played M&D Black and Red. Coppermine beat Black by 5, and Red by 3 goals (strangely for the second straight time). Hero’s squeaked by Black by 2, and thumped Red by 9. The two teams have the exact same Goals Against (30), and are within 3 on Goals Scored, although Hero’s schedule was a bit more challenging.

Both teams are strong in every phase, each have an athlete a cut above the rest, and both have multiple options on attack, good goaltending, solid coaching and good schemes.

When they start strong and are rolling, Coppermine remains an unstoppable force with too many weapons, but they can become a bit one-dimensional when they get behind and feel pressed--as in their shock loss to Aces at Summer Genesis last year.

Hero’s won’t wilt under pressure and remains disciplined in their attack and their defensive structure, even against the best opponents, and seem to shrug off mistakes, bad luck, and adverse calls. Sometimes they can struggle to crank up their attack, but if their motion and cutting game is working and their attackers are being utilized, they are extremely effective.

There is very little to separate these two teams. I’m perplexed by Coppermine’s close games with CCL and M&D Red, and I think they might need a jolt to play their best. Hero's has been pushed a bit by Sky Walkers and Pride, in addition to M&D Black (also played MDU), and maybe more prepared for a close game.

Taking it all into account, factoring in recent performance and trend lines, I will have to go with Hero’s Green.

Hero’s Green -1 (9-8)

(Bonus Picks: If Hero's Green does pull it off, I predict that Coppermine responds by going on to win the playoffs and the National Championship.)

Hero’s doesn’t have enough to put up 9 goals on Coppermine. Nice write up but Coppermine takes this game and here’s why.

Attack: Advantage Coppermine
Middies: Huge advantage Coppermine, no one comes close
Defense: Hero’s biggest weakness and a strength of Coppermine
Goalies: slight advantage Hero’s but not enough to make the difference.

Coppermine takes it 7-4, goes on to win NGLL mid Atlantic.

Meh. Data Guy uses data to drive his conclusions. This guy just starts with a conclusion and offers zero evidence. Not saying he is wrong, just lazy or just stirring the pot.

[Anonymous]

Broken down differently...

Players 1 - 3: Advantage Coppermine
Players 4 - 20: Advantage Hero's

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DG here. The stage is set for the final weekend of the NGLL Mid-Atlantic season, with a blockbuster game on the marquee. Will add a follow up post later this week with the rest of the games, but let’s cut right to the chase:

--Coppermine vs. Hero’s Green: Two 7-0 heavyweights slug it out for the regular season title and the #1 seed. These teams have been extremely competitive this season, know each other well, and always leave it on the field for this matchup.

Coppermine was dominant during the 2022-2023 season, winning all three official match ups, the last by 6 goals at Live Love Lax. While both clubs added talent in the offseason, Hero’s pulled off the big upset at the Fall Mid-Atlantic showcase in November, turning the tables 3-1 on Coppermine, and announcing a new, more competitive, era with the dominant 2028 team.

The battles continued back and forth over the indoor season (yes, purists, I know it doesn’t count), with a hard-fought OT win for Coppermine at the Indoor Nationals at Spooky Nook in January, followed by a bit easier victory for Hero’s Green in the BWI Winter League HS-B finale the next month.

As for NGLL common opponents, both teams played M&D Black and Red. Coppermine beat Black by 5, and Red by 3 goals (strangely for the second straight time). Hero’s squeaked by Black by 2, and thumped Red by 9. The two teams have the exact same Goals Against (30), and are within 3 on Goals Scored, although Hero’s schedule was a bit more challenging.

Both teams are strong in every phase, each have an athlete a cut above the rest, and both have multiple options on attack, good goaltending, solid coaching and good schemes.

When they start strong and are rolling, Coppermine remains an unstoppable force with too many weapons, but they can become a bit one-dimensional when they get behind and feel pressed--as in their shock loss to Aces at Summer Genesis last year.

Hero’s won’t wilt under pressure and remains disciplined in their attack and their defensive structure, even against the best opponents, and seem to shrug off mistakes, bad luck, and adverse calls. Sometimes they can struggle to crank up their attack, but if their motion and cutting game is working and their attackers are being utilized, they are extremely effective.

There is very little to separate these two teams. I’m perplexed by Coppermine’s close games with CCL and M&D Red, and I think they might need a jolt to play their best. Hero's has been pushed a bit by Sky Walkers and Pride, in addition to M&D Black (also played MDU), and maybe more prepared for a close game.

Taking it all into account, factoring in recent performance and trend lines, I will have to go with Hero’s Green.

Hero’s Green -1 (9-8)

(Bonus Picks: If Hero's Green does pull it off, I predict that Coppermine responds by going on to win the playoffs and the National Championship.)

Hero’s doesn’t have enough to put up 9 goals on Coppermine. Nice write up but Coppermine takes this game and here’s why.

Attack: Advantage Coppermine
Middies: Huge advantage Coppermine, no one comes close
Defense: Hero’s biggest weakness and a strength of Coppermine
Goalies: slight advantage Hero’s but not enough to make the difference.

Coppermine takes it 7-4, goes on to win NGLL mid Atlantic.

Huh? If Coppermine has advantages on D, M and A, explain how Hero’s has beaten Coppermine in 2 of their last 3 games? Also saying that D is Hero’s biggest weakness is not justified by any empirical evidence - Hero’s and Coppermins have both given up 30 goals in NGLL, same number of games, and Hero’s had a slightly harder schedule since they didn’t play MC Elite. I think Coppermine has a slight advantage, but these teams match up pretty well at every position.

Huh is right. Hero’s parents grasping for anything with indoor and shortened game wins.

Here’s your data:

The last 3 Real full field, full length outdoor games against hero’s:

Coppermine by 2
Coppermine by 2
Coppermine by 6

Spooky book and BWI league are not the same as an outdoor full field game. The DC teams don’t even play in the BWI league.

What data does data guy have that others don’t? Continuing to just tout goals against?

While Hero’s has improved, Coppermine picked up one of the best players in the country. They beat M&D easily this spring while Hero’s did not.

[Anonymous]

I wonder where all the Coppermibe players are going next year?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DG here. The stage is set for the final weekend of the NGLL Mid-Atlantic season, with a blockbuster game on the marquee. Will add a follow up post later this week with the rest of the games, but let’s cut right to the chase:

--Coppermine vs. Hero’s Green: Two 7-0 heavyweights slug it out for the regular season title and the #1 seed. These teams have been extremely competitive this season, know each other well, and always leave it on the field for this matchup.

Coppermine was dominant during the 2022-2023 season, winning all three official match ups, the last by 6 goals at Live Love Lax. While both clubs added talent in the offseason, Hero’s pulled off the big upset at the Fall Mid-Atlantic showcase in November, turning the tables 3-1 on Coppermine, and announcing a new, more competitive, era with the dominant 2028 team.

The battles continued back and forth over the indoor season (yes, purists, I know it doesn’t count), with a hard-fought OT win for Coppermine at the Indoor Nationals at Spooky Nook in January, followed by a bit easier victory for Hero’s Green in the BWI Winter League HS-B finale the next month.

As for NGLL common opponents, both teams played M&D Black and Red. Coppermine beat Black by 5, and Red by 3 goals (strangely for the second straight time). Hero’s squeaked by Black by 2, and thumped Red by 9. The two teams have the exact same Goals Against (30), and are within 3 on Goals Scored, although Hero’s schedule was a bit more challenging.

Both teams are strong in every phase, each have an athlete a cut above the rest, and both have multiple options on attack, good goaltending, solid coaching and good schemes.

When they start strong and are rolling, Coppermine remains an unstoppable force with too many weapons, but they can become a bit one-dimensional when they get behind and feel pressed--as in their shock loss to Aces at Summer Genesis last year.

Hero’s won’t wilt under pressure and remains disciplined in their attack and their defensive structure, even against the best opponents, and seem to shrug off mistakes, bad luck, and adverse calls. Sometimes they can struggle to crank up their attack, but if their motion and cutting game is working and their attackers are being utilized, they are extremely effective.

There is very little to separate these two teams. I’m perplexed by Coppermine’s close games with CCL and M&D Red, and I think they might need a jolt to play their best. Hero's has been pushed a bit by Sky Walkers and Pride, in addition to M&D Black (also played MDU), and maybe more prepared for a close game.

Taking it all into account, factoring in recent performance and trend lines, I will have to go with Hero’s Green.

Hero’s Green -1 (9-8)

(Bonus Picks: If Hero's Green does pull it off, I predict that Coppermine responds by going on to win the playoffs and the National Championship.)

Hero’s doesn’t have enough to put up 9 goals on Coppermine. Nice write up but Coppermine takes this game and here’s why.

Attack: Advantage Coppermine
Middies: Huge advantage Coppermine, no one comes close
Defense: Hero’s biggest weakness and a strength of Coppermine
Goalies: slight advantage Hero’s but not enough to make the difference.

Coppermine takes it 7-4, goes on to win NGLL mid Atlantic.

Huh? If Coppermine has advantages on D, M and A, explain how Hero’s has beaten Coppermine in 2 of their last 3 games? Also saying that D is Hero’s biggest weakness is not justified by any empirical evidence - Hero’s and Coppermins have both given up 30 goals in NGLL, same number of games, and Hero’s had a slightly harder schedule since they didn’t play MC Elite. I think Coppermine has a slight advantage, but these teams match up pretty well at every position.

Huh is right. Hero’s parents grasping for anything with indoor and shortened game wins.

Here’s your data:

The last 3 Real full field, full length outdoor games against hero’s:

Coppermine by 2
Coppermine by 2
Coppermine by 6

Spooky book and BWI league are not the same as an outdoor full field game. The DC teams don’t even play in the BWI league.

What data does data guy have that others don’t? Continuing to just tout goals against?

While Hero’s has improved, Coppermine picked up one of the best players in the country. They beat M&D easily this spring while Hero’s did not.

This is the typical Coppermine argument - only certain results count. Tell me why an outdoor tournament championship game result doesn’t count just because the game length is shorter? It’s not a sudden victory scenario. Also, the results you’re highlighting go back to Fall of 2022 - Coppermine was significantly better than Hero’s and the argument is solely that Hero’s has closed the gap. They are different teams now with different rosters. If we’re looking at common opponent results, hero’s beat m&d red by 9 while coppermine only best them by 3. Does that not count in your analysis or only m&d black games count?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DG here. The stage is set for the final weekend of the NGLL Mid-Atlantic season, with a blockbuster game on the marquee. Will add a follow up post later this week with the rest of the games, but let’s cut right to the chase:

--Coppermine vs. Hero’s Green: Two 7-0 heavyweights slug it out for the regular season title and the #1 seed. These teams have been extremely competitive this season, know each other well, and always leave it on the field for this matchup.

Coppermine was dominant during the 2022-2023 season, winning all three official match ups, the last by 6 goals at Live Love Lax. While both clubs added talent in the offseason, Hero’s pulled off the big upset at the Fall Mid-Atlantic showcase in November, turning the tables 3-1 on Coppermine, and announcing a new, more competitive, era with the dominant 2028 team.

The battles continued back and forth over the indoor season (yes, purists, I know it doesn’t count), with a hard-fought OT win for Coppermine at the Indoor Nationals at Spooky Nook in January, followed by a bit easier victory for Hero’s Green in the BWI Winter League HS-B finale the next month.

As for NGLL common opponents, both teams played M&D Black and Red. Coppermine beat Black by 5, and Red by 3 goals (strangely for the second straight time). Hero’s squeaked by Black by 2, and thumped Red by 9. The two teams have the exact same Goals Against (30), and are within 3 on Goals Scored, although Hero’s schedule was a bit more challenging.

Both teams are strong in every phase, each have an athlete a cut above the rest, and both have multiple options on attack, good goaltending, solid coaching and good schemes.

When they start strong and are rolling, Coppermine remains an unstoppable force with too many weapons, but they can become a bit one-dimensional when they get behind and feel pressed--as in their shock loss to Aces at Summer Genesis last year.

Hero’s won’t wilt under pressure and remains disciplined in their attack and their defensive structure, even against the best opponents, and seem to shrug off mistakes, bad luck, and adverse calls. Sometimes they can struggle to crank up their attack, but if their motion and cutting game is working and their attackers are being utilized, they are extremely effective.

There is very little to separate these two teams. I’m perplexed by Coppermine’s close games with CCL and M&D Red, and I think they might need a jolt to play their best. Hero's has been pushed a bit by Sky Walkers and Pride, in addition to M&D Black (also played MDU), and maybe more prepared for a close game.

Taking it all into account, factoring in recent performance and trend lines, I will have to go with Hero’s Green.

Hero’s Green -1 (9-8)

(Bonus Picks: If Hero's Green does pull it off, I predict that Coppermine responds by going on to win the playoffs and the National Championship.)

Hero’s doesn’t have enough to put up 9 goals on Coppermine. Nice write up but Coppermine takes this game and here’s why.

Attack: Advantage Coppermine
Middies: Huge advantage Coppermine, no one comes close
Defense: Hero’s biggest weakness and a strength of Coppermine
Goalies: slight advantage Hero’s but not enough to make the difference.

Coppermine takes it 7-4, goes on to win NGLL mid Atlantic.

Huh? If Coppermine has advantages on D, M and A, explain how Hero’s has beaten Coppermine in 2 of their last 3 games? Also saying that D is Hero’s biggest weakness is not justified by any empirical evidence - Hero’s and Coppermins have both given up 30 goals in NGLL, same number of games, and Hero’s had a slightly harder schedule since they didn’t play MC Elite. I think Coppermine has a slight advantage, but these teams match up pretty well at every position.

Huh is right. Hero’s parents grasping for anything with indoor and shortened game wins.

Here’s your data:

The last 3 Real full field, full length outdoor games against hero’s:

Coppermine by 2
Coppermine by 2
Coppermine by 6

Spooky book and BWI league are not the same as an outdoor full field game. The DC teams don’t even play in the BWI league.

What data does data guy have that others don’t? Continuing to just tout goals against?

While Hero’s has improved, Coppermine picked up one of the best players in the country. They beat M&D easily this spring while Hero’s did not.

There are many differences between indoor and outdoor to consider, with one clear difference being draws only taken at the beginning of each half in indoor. There is generally not much talk on this forum about draw controls, except that there was some talk earlier in the season about Heros's having trouble with Pride on the draw in their March matchup. Though draws were not mentioned in the earlier analyses about the upcoming Coppermine vs Hero's matchup, my assumption is Coppermine has an advantage on the draw that has benefited them more in the full field games than the indoor games. Can anyone validate my assumption that Coppermine would be presumed to have the advantage on draw controls?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:DG here. The stage is set for the final weekend of the NGLL Mid-Atlantic season, with a blockbuster game on the marquee. Will add a follow up post later this week with the rest of the games, but let’s cut right to the chase:

--Coppermine vs. Hero’s Green: Two 7-0 heavyweights slug it out for the regular season title and the #1 seed. These teams have been extremely competitive this season, know each other well, and always leave it on the field for this matchup.

Coppermine was dominant during the 2022-2023 season, winning all three official match ups, the last by 6 goals at Live Love Lax. While both clubs added talent in the offseason, Hero’s pulled off the big upset at the Fall Mid-Atlantic showcase in November, turning the tables 3-1 on Coppermine, and announcing a new, more competitive, era with the dominant 2028 team.

The battles continued back and forth over the indoor season (yes, purists, I know it doesn’t count), with a hard-fought OT win for Coppermine at the Indoor Nationals at Spooky Nook in January, followed by a bit easier victory for Hero’s Green in the BWI Winter League HS-B finale the next month.

As for NGLL common opponents, both teams played M&D Black and Red. Coppermine beat Black by 5, and Red by 3 goals (strangely for the second straight time). Hero’s squeaked by Black by 2, and thumped Red by 9. The two teams have the exact same Goals Against (30), and are within 3 on Goals Scored, although Hero’s schedule was a bit more challenging.

Both teams are strong in every phase, each have an athlete a cut above the rest, and both have multiple options on attack, good goaltending, solid coaching and good schemes.

When they start strong and are rolling, Coppermine remains an unstoppable force with too many weapons, but they can become a bit one-dimensional when they get behind and feel pressed--as in their shock loss to Aces at Summer Genesis last year.

Hero’s won’t wilt under pressure and remains disciplined in their attack and their defensive structure, even against the best opponents, and seem to shrug off mistakes, bad luck, and adverse calls. Sometimes they can struggle to crank up their attack, but if their motion and cutting game is working and their attackers are being utilized, they are extremely effective.

There is very little to separate these two teams. I’m perplexed by Coppermine’s close games with CCL and M&D Red, and I think they might need a jolt to play their best. Hero's has been pushed a bit by Sky Walkers and Pride, in addition to M&D Black (also played MDU), and maybe more prepared for a close game.

Taking it all into account, factoring in recent performance and trend lines, I will have to go with Hero’s Green.

Hero’s Green -1 (9-8)

(Bonus Picks: If Hero's Green does pull it off, I predict that Coppermine responds by going on to win the playoffs and the National Championship.)

I think Coppermine comes out the winner by 2.

The reason Coppermine has had tight games with lower competition is because they are trying to spread the ball around more (to their credit) which results in more people touching the ball and a greater number of mistakes. However, when they play top competition, they tighten things up, same 3 midis play the whole time, and fewer people are involved in generating offense. In M&D game they shut a player for pretty much entire game, so wouldn't put it past them to try and deny Hero's top player. Coppermine will come in with a strategy and do what they have to do to win.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can’t make it big math festival down at the promenade. I’ll be sending My compadre erroneous data guy. My compadre erroneous data guy. Keep an eye out for him. He was a monocle and a large top head.

DG here. While this imposter response was entertaining, you can tell it's fraudulent because I tend to praise others who bring data/analysis to the table rather than label "erroneous". Respectfully, Coppermine vs Hero's is must see lacrosse, but I won't be disclosing whether I will be there or not!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:DG here. The stage is set for the final weekend of the NGLL Mid-Atlantic season, with a blockbuster game on the marquee. Will add a follow up post later this week with the rest of the games, but let’s cut right to the chase:

--Coppermine vs. Hero’s Green: Two 7-0 heavyweights slug it out for the regular season title and the #1 seed. These teams have been extremely competitive this season, know each other well, and always leave it on the field for this matchup.

Coppermine was dominant during the 2022-2023 season, winning all three official match ups, the last by 6 goals at Live Love Lax. While both clubs added talent in the offseason, Hero’s pulled off the big upset at the Fall Mid-Atlantic showcase in November, turning the tables 3-1 on Coppermine, and announcing a new, more competitive, era with the dominant 2028 team.

The battles continued back and forth over the indoor season (yes, purists, I know it doesn’t count), with a hard-fought OT win for Coppermine at the Indoor Nationals at Spooky Nook in January, followed by a bit easier victory for Hero’s Green in the BWI Winter League HS-B finale the next month.

As for NGLL common opponents, both teams played M&D Black and Red. Coppermine beat Black by 5, and Red by 3 goals (strangely for the second straight time). Hero’s squeaked by Black by 2, and thumped Red by 9. The two teams have the exact same Goals Against (30), and are within 3 on Goals Scored, although Hero’s schedule was a bit more challenging.

Both teams are strong in every phase, each have an athlete a cut above the rest, and both have multiple options on attack, good goaltending, solid coaching and good schemes.

When they start strong and are rolling, Coppermine remains an unstoppable force with too many weapons, but they can become a bit one-dimensional when they get behind and feel pressed--as in their shock loss to Aces at Summer Genesis last year.

Hero’s won’t wilt under pressure and remains disciplined in their attack and their defensive structure, even against the best opponents, and seem to shrug off mistakes, bad luck, and adverse calls. Sometimes they can struggle to crank up their attack, but if their motion and cutting game is working and their attackers are being utilized, they are extremely effective.

There is very little to separate these two teams. I’m perplexed by Coppermine’s close games with CCL and M&D Red, and I think they might need a jolt to play their best. Hero's has been pushed a bit by Sky Walkers and Pride, in addition to M&D Black (also played MDU), and maybe more prepared for a close game.

Taking it all into account, factoring in recent performance and trend lines, I will have to go with Hero’s Green.

Hero’s Green -1 (9-8)

(Bonus Picks: If Hero's Green does pull it off, I predict that Coppermine responds by going on to win the playoffs and the National Championship.)

Hero’s doesn’t have enough to put up 9 goals on Coppermine. Nice write up but Coppermine takes this game and here’s why.

Attack: Advantage Coppermine
Middies: Huge advantage Coppermine, no one comes close
Defense: Hero’s biggest weakness and a strength of Coppermine
Goalies: slight advantage Hero’s but not enough to make the difference.

Coppermine takes it 7-4, goes on to win NGLL mid Atlantic.

Huh? If Coppermine has advantages on D, M and A, explain how Hero’s has beaten Coppermine in 2 of their last 3 games? Also saying that D is Hero’s biggest weakness is not justified by any empirical evidence - Hero’s and Coppermins have both given up 30 goals in NGLL, same number of games, and Hero’s had a slightly harder schedule since they didn’t play MC Elite. I think Coppermine has a slight advantage, but these teams match up pretty well at every position.

Huh is right. Hero’s parents grasping for anything with indoor and shortened game wins.

Here’s your data:

The last 3 Real full field, full length outdoor games against hero’s:

Coppermine by 2
Coppermine by 2
Coppermine by 6

Spooky book and BWI league are not the same as an outdoor full field game. The DC teams don’t even play in the BWI league.

What data does data guy have that others don’t? Continuing to just tout goals against?

While Hero’s has improved, Coppermine picked up one of the best players in the country. They beat M&D easily this spring while Hero’s did not.

There are many differences between indoor and outdoor to consider, with one clear difference being draws only taken at the beginning of each half in indoor. There is generally not much talk on this forum about draw controls, except that there was some talk earlier in the season about Heros's having trouble with Pride on the draw in their March matchup. Though draws were not mentioned in the earlier analyses about the upcoming Coppermine vs Hero's matchup, my assumption is Coppermine has an advantage on the draw that has benefited them more in the full field games than the indoor games. Can anyone validate my assumption that Coppermine would be presumed to have the advantage on draw controls?

Every team has an off day/or an amazing day...but looking at it over time...I think this is about equal. Neither has a draw taker who really specializes or is known for being excellent, but both have fast and strong players on the circle.