Predictions Snow Feb 11?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Which model has typically been most accurate in past storms (January 2025 or in past years)?

That's a LOADED question, PP

Every meteorologist might have a different opinion.
Some models are better for long range predictions (GFS, Euro) and some are better for short range predictions (NAM).
The truth is, even the best models can be completely wrong sometimes. What we look for is a growing consensus among models as we get closer to game time. Outliers don't generally verify.

Finally, there are lots of things that models still can't predict. For example, we can tell when precipitation might form (early afternoon over DC), but we think there's a pocket of dry air above our region that will absorb that moisture. This means precip onset time does not equal visible snowflakes at eye level! Also, we are concerned about daytime temperatures, which might be too warm to allow for accumulation once the snowflakes do materialize. For both of these reasons, the GFS's double digit totals south of DC are discounted by meteorologists. Apparently this model (which is otherwise pretty good) is having a hard time integrating those factors. Most of the other models are more reasonable.

We'll see who is right tomorrow!

I really hope you're not the one making the calls for MCPS..

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They were out over their skis with the "we don't think we'll need early release" when now literally every other school system and OPM has decided differently. They're either going to have to backtrack or be alone on an island and risk region-wide ridicule.

They also said "We are expecting snow accumulation that will likely interrupt school operations. It is too early to make a decision about a closure or potential delays or potential early releases. That said, we anticipate a high probability of changes to the schedule of events on Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, we do not anticipate closing school early tomorrow (Tuesday)."

So there's no backtracking. As of Tuesday, no early dismissal. As of Wednesday, there probably will be an early dismissal.

Better to deal with the Internet backlash then put late afternoon busses on the roads when the NWS says "Snow will overspread the area late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon, with the steadiest snow expected late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour and visibility below one half mile are possible late Tuesday afternoon and evening."

There was room to backtrack as you can see in the bold up there. "At this time" was around 4:58pm Monday.

Since the county is the largest in MD and it is urban, suburban and rural, they should do an out of abundance of caution message immediately to close rather than a disruptive early release schedule. The only thing with full closure is now will students who need meals receive them?

It’s 5:52am and the morning model runs are showing earlier arrival and more snow. (11am vs. 1pm in Gaithersburg). Let’s see if they update in a bit.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think we will get a message at 5 a.m. that there is early dismissal.

Why? What if snow starts at 2 and starts actually sticking at 6?

[Anonymous]

They’re annoying. This isn’t a special once in a lifetime event. It’s a day of school. Why risk anything? Parents don’t want to pick their kids up in a snowstorm. Many ES don’t dismiss until 3:50. Let schools plan their schedule in advance rather than abruptly closing early.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think we will get a message at 5 a.m. that there is early dismissal.

Why? What if snow starts at 2 and starts actually sticking at 6?

Really this again? Busses. That's why. Not all roads are treated.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think we will get a message at 5 a.m. that there is early dismissal.

Why? What if snow starts at 2 and starts actually sticking at 6?

And what if it starts snowing at 11 am sticking at 2 pm? No one is going to be able to predict the moment snow starts sticking. Everyone surrounding MCPS is calling it early.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They’re annoying. This isn’t a special once in a lifetime event. It’s a day of school. Why risk anything? Parents don’t want to pick their kids up in a snowstorm. Many ES don’t dismiss until 3:50. Let schools plan their schedule in advance rather than abruptly closing early.

Potential shitstorm. Early dismisal = busses out on road same time as motorists comuting home

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think we will get a message at 5 a.m. that there is early dismissal.

Why? What if snow starts at 2 and starts actually sticking at 6?

And what if it starts snowing at 11 am sticking at 2 pm? No one is going to be able to predict the moment snow starts sticking. Everyone surrounding MCPS is calling it early.

But what if it starts even earlier? Close mcps you can be different by closing instead of a chaotic early release.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think we will get a message at 5 a.m. that there is early dismissal.

Why? What if snow starts at 2 and starts actually sticking at 6?

And what if it starts snowing at 11 am sticking at 2 pm? No one is going to be able to predict the moment snow starts sticking. Everyone surrounding MCPS is calling it early.

Did Howard county?

[Anonymous]

There is a winter storm warning effective 1pm. Early release for some is after 1pm and they still haven't called it? This is going into X territory now, largest school district in MD.

[Anonymous]

It's after 6am. Who is running that office??!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think we will get a message at 5 a.m. that there is early dismissal.

Why? What if snow starts at 2 and starts actually sticking at 6?

And what if it starts snowing at 11 am sticking at 2 pm? No one is going to be able to predict the moment snow starts sticking. Everyone surrounding MCPS is calling it early.

Did Howard county?

yes

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think we will get a message at 5 a.m. that there is early dismissal.

Why? What if snow starts at 2 and starts actually sticking at 6?

And what if it starts snowing at 11 am sticking at 2 pm? No one is going to be able to predict the moment snow starts sticking. Everyone surrounding MCPS is calling it early.

Did Howard county?

Not Howard yet. But Howard is much very "liberal" with their closings. They even have days with no school or early dismissal for staff wellness. They'll close early for a legitimate snow threat.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think we will get a message at 5 a.m. that there is early dismissal.

Why? What if snow starts at 2 and starts actually sticking at 6?

And what if it starts snowing at 11 am sticking at 2 pm? No one is going to be able to predict the moment snow starts sticking. Everyone surrounding MCPS is calling it early.

Did Howard county?

Not Howard yet. But Howard is much very "liberal" with their closings. They even have days with no school or early dismissal for staff wellness. They'll close early for a legitimate snow threat.

Howard actually posted the same time as this message. So, all of the surrounding areas.

[Anonymous]

Very surprised they didn't call it