Predictions Snow Feb 11?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Montgomery college also issued an early close tomorrow and they are slower to close than MCPS. Early release is inevitable.

But but but this evening's announcement said early release is prob not happening. A plot twist. Oooooo get your popcorn ready

[Anonymous]

https://mocoshow.com/2025/02/10/winter-storm-warning-expected-snow-totals-by-the-national-weather-service/

It's going to be very close.
Snow starting 1-3pm, starting to stick 3-5pm, and then accumulating.

Almost definitely no afterschool activities.

[Anonymous]

They were out over their skis with the "we don't think we'll need early release" when now literally every other school system and OPM has decided differently. They're either going to have to backtrack or be alone on an island and risk region-wide ridicule.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://mocoshow.com/2025/02/10/winter-storm-warning-expected-snow-totals-by-the-national-weather-service/

It's going to be very close.
Snow starting 1-3pm, starting to stick 3-5pm, and then accumulating.

Almost definitely no afterschool activities.

It should be an out of abundance of caution message to close Tuesday

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They were out over their skis with the "we don't think we'll need early release" when now literally every other school system and OPM has decided differently. They're either going to have to backtrack or be alone on an island and risk region-wide ridicule.

Did Doug K influence them??

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:They were out over their skis with the "we don't think we'll need early release" when now literally every other school system and OPM has decided differently. They're either going to have to backtrack or be alone on an island and risk region-wide ridicule.

They also said "We are expecting snow accumulation that will likely interrupt school operations. It is too early to make a decision about a closure or potential delays or potential early releases. That said, we anticipate a high probability of changes to the schedule of events on Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, we do not anticipate closing school early tomorrow (Tuesday)."

So there's no backtracking. As of Tuesday, no early dismissal. As of Wednesday, there probably will be an early dismissal.

Better to deal with the Internet backlash then put late afternoon busses on the roads when the NWS says "Snow will overspread the area late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon, with the steadiest snow expected late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour and visibility below one half mile are possible late Tuesday afternoon and evening."

[Anonymous]

Early dismissal or even cancelling is what makes the most sense.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:They were out over their skis with the "we don't think we'll need early release" when now literally every other school system and OPM has decided differently. They're either going to have to backtrack or be alone on an island and risk region-wide ridicule.

They also said "We are expecting snow accumulation that will likely interrupt school operations. It is too early to make a decision about a closure or potential delays or potential early releases. That said, we anticipate a high probability of changes to the schedule of events on Tuesday and Wednesday. At this time, we do not anticipate closing school early tomorrow (Tuesday)."

So there's no backtracking. As of Tuesday, no early dismissal. As of Wednesday, there probably will be an early dismissal.

Better to deal with the Internet backlash then put late afternoon busses on the roads when the NWS says "Snow will overspread the area late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon, with the steadiest snow expected late Tuesday afternoon and evening. Snowfall rates up to 1 inch per hour and visibility below one half mile are possible late Tuesday afternoon and evening."

There was room to backtrack as you can see in the bold up there. "At this time" was around 4:58pm Monday.

Since the county is the largest in MD and it is urban, suburban and rural, they should do an out of abundance of caution message immediately to close rather than a disruptive early release schedule. The only thing with full closure is now will students who need meals receive them?

[Anonymous]

I think we will get a message at 5 a.m. that there is early dismissal.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I mean…is there any chance that they’ll do a full day when almost all others have announced early dismissal or closure?

I think it's highly unlikely they have a full day. I suspect early release.

Look at the forecast. It's warm until well after school lets out. They'll stay open.

The forecast I see from two sources is 32 degrees with a 90% chance of snow when my kid’s school dismisses. I’m not sure what you are talking about.

Right. So the snow will melt as soon as it hits a surface.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think we will get a message at 5 a.m. that there is early dismissal.

Should be closed instead.

[Anonymous]

Which model has typically been most accurate in past storms (January 2025 or in past years)?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I think we will get a message at 5 a.m. that there is early dismissal.

Should be closed instead.

Then at least they'd need to add a real school day.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Which model has typically been most accurate in past storms (January 2025 or in past years)?

That's a LOADED question, PP

Every meteorologist might have a different opinion.
Some models are better for long range predictions (GFS, Euro) and some are better for short range predictions (NAM).
The truth is, even the best models can be completely wrong sometimes. What we look for is a growing consensus among models as we get closer to game time. Outliers don't generally verify.

Finally, there are lots of things that models still can't predict. For example, we can tell when precipitation might form (early afternoon over DC), but we think there's a pocket of dry air above our region that will absorb that moisture. This means precip onset time does not equal visible snowflakes at eye level! Also, we are concerned about daytime temperatures, which might be too warm to allow for accumulation once the snowflakes do materialize. For both of these reasons, the GFS's double digit totals south of DC are discounted by meteorologists. Apparently this model (which is otherwise pretty good) is having a hard time integrating those factors. Most of the other models are more reasonable.

We'll see who is right tomorrow!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Which model has typically been most accurate in past storms (January 2025 or in past years)?

That's a LOADED question, PP

Every meteorologist might have a different opinion.
Some models are better for long range predictions (GFS, Euro) and some are better for short range predictions (NAM).
The truth is, even the best models can be completely wrong sometimes. What we look for is a growing consensus among models as we get closer to game time. Outliers don't generally verify.

Finally, there are lots of things that models still can't predict. For example, we can tell when precipitation might form (early afternoon over DC), but we think there's a pocket of dry air above our region that will absorb that moisture. This means precip onset time does not equal visible snowflakes at eye level! Also, we are concerned about daytime temperatures, which might be too warm to allow for accumulation once the snowflakes do materialize. For both of these reasons, the GFS's double digit totals south of DC are discounted by meteorologists. Apparently this model (which is otherwise pretty good) is having a hard time integrating those factors. Most of the other models are more reasonable.

We'll see who is right tomorrow!

It could be rain, yeah, no early dismissal