Can you point to an example of "YIMBY policy" or upzoning that has been in effect long enough for significant housing to be built in Montgomery County that it could even potentially have an effect on housing policy? |
How many years do you need? |
Four sounds right. And I’d also need a way to isolate the impact of the “YIMBY policy” t I’m other factors that also impact housing (ex: supply chain and credit issues in the financial market) |
They certainly are doing so with end-arounds of more neighborhood-inclusive processes that would have seen more democratic participation and very different outcomes than the idea of cramming things in where there aren't adequate public facilities and where developers benefit at residents' expense. |
Your favored process is bad. Your process hasn’t really even begun. You’ve really done not much of anything so far. LOL…so much done. SO MUCH. |
That’s why posts such as this are important, they keep the public informed. If not for these the YIMBYs would just sleaze their way through quietly passing their agenda by showing up to provide testimony on some poorly advertised random Thursday planning meetings. They are activists and so they weaponize the fact that they have far too much time on their hands. |
This whole "'upzoning" thing is so silly. Cities have been getting more densely populated for literally hundreds of years. No one tears down an apartment building so they can replace it with a single family home, but they definitely do the reverse and they've been doing it for a very long time. Guess what? The most densely populated cities in this country also tend to be the most expensive. |
Look at 14th Street in DC. There must be five times as many housing units as there was 20 years ago, and it's far, far, far more expensive than it was 20 years ago. Just because you add to the housing supply doesnt mean demand doesnt also go up too or even go up much faster. Housing is complicated and hard and shouting dumb bumper sticker slogans like "upzoning" and "NIMBY!" is not helpful to anyone. |
Bad reasoning. What’s the counterfactual? It’s very likely that it would be more expensive had the extra housing not been added |
Can you point to a city where upzoning has lowered prices? |
Minneapolis. |
Yeah that makes zero sense. Gentrification ("upzoning") drives prices up, not down. The reason housing is super expensive on 14th Street is because people want to live within walking distance of bars and restaurants and stores. But the only reason those bars, restaurants and stores are there is because they radically increased the number of housing units around 14th Street. If they hadn't done that, all those businesses never would have opened because there wouldnt be enough foot track to support them. 20 years ago, 14th street was mostly empty store fronts and no one went there at night unless they were going to the Black Cat. |
Nope: https://kevinerdmann.substack.com/p/the-minneapolis-miracle |
I love that you’ve pre-positioned your excuses and also claimed you can’t isolate your policy’s effects on housing markets. But you remain committed to it as the only way forward. No wonder we have a housing crisis. Just look at the smart growth movement. That was championed by Doug Duncan in 1998(?) and it’s basically the same framework that produced thrive, the new master plans, and the numerous tax breaks and cash incentives that the county has given to developers. We closed vast swaths of land to housing (the ag reserve) in the interest of concentrating new housing in revitalized downtowns. The policy has been in place through loose credit and tight credit and then loose credit again (credit markets fluctuate over time and good policy accounts for that). It’s also weathered tight supply chains and loose supply chains (like credit markets, supplies of housing inputs fluctuate over time and good policy can survive that). Smart growth succeeded in concentrating new development down county in dense developments around transit. It also promised to lower housing prices and improve the county’s revenue. It did neither of those things. Housing is more expensive than ever and the county had to raise taxes again last year. Not only that, but we’ve now found out that we need to subsidize smart growth through tax abatements. TL;DR: You’re convinced your policy works, but you can’t prove it, and you continue to argue that it’s the only way even though it hasn’t delivered on its affordability or budget promises and is such a failure that we need to pay people to build housing according to the plan. |
Yep. A much more recent piece from a much more reputable organization: https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2024/twin-cities-region-meets-ambitious-housing-goals-for-second-year-but-has-much-work-left-to-do |