Looking for a house in Cleveland Park or Woodley

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Hurry, hurry. Real Estate never goes down. DC is immune from everything. Oh wait, in the early 90s it all fell 25-30%.
Yes, including the "in" neighborhoods in NW DC. I only mention this here because if the OP was part of the population that doesn't need to take out a mortgage, and so can validly claim price direction doesn't matter, it is hard to imagine they'd be posting here. A 4 bedroom need = children. Children need schools, it's DC, so someday they'll be likely pushed to thinking of privates. Does OP really have the kind of $$ to support this? Maybe yes, but do think carefully about this.

I bought a house in the area OP wants in Cleveland Park in 1988 (at the top of the market at that time) and while it did not increase in value much until about 2000, it did NOT drop 25-30-% in value. I know some of the houses out in Potomac did, because we had looked in Potomac, and thanked God that we didn't buy there. No where is "immune," but some areas are more resistant than others. Compare, say, Cleveland Park 2005 to present to Gainesville. The vast majority of people who live in sfhs in Cleveland Park have other investments, and buy there because they want to live in a nice house in that location, and are willing to pay for it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:19:42 makes a good point, but at OP's budget, and the length of time she has been looking, she may need to be willing to pay 1.9 million for a house that is worth 1.7 million. Also, many of these houses will NEVER go on the real market, so she is just locked out of her limited desired neighborhood until someone decides to sell the conventional way.

Also, many of these houses do not actually go for more than a fair market price. For the true off market stuff, the sellers will make more since the agents are cut out, so they don't lose the 100k that would go to both agents. So, they are often willing to take a fair price. OP can't lose a thing by inquiring.

If you can actually buy without getting an agent involved, then yes, you can often get a pretty good deal -- avoiding the commission saves enough that both the buyer and seller can come out ahead. But someone had suggested working with an agent who specializes in that neighborhood -- and that's a great way to overpay. Of course, as you point out, if you really want to live in a particular place and it's hard to find houses there, it may be worth it to pay above market value.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hurry, hurry. Real Estate never goes down. DC is immune from everything. Oh wait, in the early 90s it all fell 25-30%.
Yes, including the "in" neighborhoods in NW DC. I only mention this here because if the OP was part of the population that doesn't need to take out a mortgage, and so can validly claim price direction doesn't matter, it is hard to imagine they'd be posting here. A 4 bedroom need = children. Children need schools, it's DC, so someday they'll be likely pushed to thinking of privates. Does OP really have the kind of $$ to support this? Maybe yes, but do think carefully about this.

I bought a house in the area OP wants in Cleveland Park in 1988 (at the top of the market at that time) and while it did not increase in value much until about 2000, it did NOT drop 25-30-% in value. I know some of the houses out in Potomac did, because we had looked in Potomac, and thanked God that we didn't buy there. No where is "immune," but some areas are more resistant than others. Compare, say, Cleveland Park 2005 to present to Gainesville. The vast majority of people who live in sfhs in Cleveland Park have other investments, and buy there because they want to live in a nice house in that location, and are willing to pay for it.

Sniff, sniff.

You missed the point. Cleveland Park isn't immune from larger real estate trends, and you would surely have lost money if you tried to sell a house that you bought in 1988 in the early 90s.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think I might see the problem:

4 bedrooms

Cleveland Park historic district

totally renovated

1.5 million


But they are out there. There was one that just sold on Rowland Place (4 bed, petitenotmassive, renovated). There was a huge one on Newark, the best street, that finally closed for 1.7 but was first listed at 2M. A couple on Macomb, with one being a lot nicer than the other but both renovated.

Given the price drops on all of these, and time on market, I don't think they were insider secrets.

OP here. We've been eyeing the market for some time. We even bid on one of the ones that recently sold. It should be doable, certainly at the upper end of our price range.

I was really hoping that someone on here might have a lead to one not on the MLS.

[Anonymous]

You missed the point. Cleveland Park isn't immune from larger real estate trends, and you would surely have lost money if you tried to sell a house that you bought in 1988 in the early 90s.

The conventional wisdom has always been that you need to hold a house for about seven years before you can sell at a profit, due to appreciation traditionally not equaling the transactional costs of selling until then. Anyone who bought anything in 1988 would have lost money in the early 90s because that was not a long enough time period because 1988 to say 1992 is not enough time for a home to appreciate.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Hurry, hurry. Real Estate never goes down. DC is immune from everything. Oh wait, in the early 90s it all fell 25-30%.
Yes, including the "in" neighborhoods in NW DC. I only mention this here because if the OP was part of the population that doesn't need to take out a mortgage, and so can validly claim price direction doesn't matter, it is hard to imagine they'd be posting here. A 4 bedroom need = children. Children need schools, it's DC, so someday they'll be likely pushed to thinking of privates. Does OP really have the kind of $$ to support this? Maybe yes, but do think carefully about this.

I bought a house in the area OP wants in Cleveland Park in 1988 (at the top of the market at that time) and while it did not increase in value much until about 2000, it did NOT drop 25-30-% in value. I know some of the houses out in Potomac did, because we had looked in Potomac, and thanked God that we didn't buy there. No where is "immune," but some areas are more resistant than others. Compare, say, Cleveland Park 2005 to present to Gainesville. The vast majority of people who live in sfhs in Cleveland Park have other investments, and buy there because they want to live in a nice house in that location, and are willing to pay for it.

Sniff, sniff.

You missed the point. Cleveland Park isn't immune from larger real estate trends, and you would surely have lost money if you tried to sell a house that you bought in 1988 in the early 90s.

No, you missed the point. "Larger real estate trends" are interesting from a economics standpoint, but not necessarily relevant for purposes of the purchase of an individual home. If I had bought in the outer Virginia 'burbs in 2005, I'd be seriously underwater. People who bought in 2005 in Cleveland Park (or Arlington or Alexandria), absent transaction costs, are probably about even, or, at the most, lost some of their downpayment. We just sold our house for what it would have sold for in 2005. Why? Having lived in these neighborhoods for over 20 years, I can tell you that there are real demographic trends that have changed these neighborhoods. In the not too distant past, Cleveland Park was considered to be a "blue collar" neighborhood (as a long-time DC resident told me with a sniff once). One of my neighbors in the early 90's was a cab driver. There are a LOT of really well-salaried people in DC who don't want to fight the increasingly horrific traffic every day, and who are willing to pay for location. They are buying a house to live in, not an investment. And that, by definition, creates a market for these houses, and what they are willing to pay is the "market price." The market price is not what you think the house should be worth.

You sound like one of those bitter people who have been renting since 2003 while you wait for prices to come down in the close-in neighborhoods. Prices started crashing in the outer 'burbs four years ago. If there was going to be a "substitution effect" close in it would have happened by now. The fact is, they are different markets. Sure, if we have an economic crash and enter a full-scale depression, house values may come down everywhere. However, it's interesting to me that all of my relatives that lived through the Great Depression only want to invest in real estate (and they've done really well at it, by the way, even in this market).

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:No, you missed the point. "Larger real estate trends" are interesting from a economics standpoint, but not necessarily relevant for purposes of the purchase of an individual home. If I had bought in the outer Virginia 'burbs in 2005, I'd be seriously underwater. People who bought in 2005 in Cleveland Park (or Arlington or Alexandria), absent transaction costs, are probably about even, or, at the most, lost some of their downpayment. We just sold our house for what it would have sold for in 2005. Why? Having lived in these neighborhoods for over 20 years, I can tell you that there are real demographic trends that have changed these neighborhoods. In the not too distant past, Cleveland Park was considered to be a "blue collar" neighborhood (as a long-time DC resident told me with a sniff once). One of my neighbors in the early 90's was a cab driver. There are a LOT of really well-salaried people in DC who don't want to fight the increasingly horrific traffic every day, and who are willing to pay for location. They are buying a house to live in, not an investment. And that, by definition, creates a market for these houses, and what they are willing to pay is the "market price." The market price is not what you think the house should be worth.

You sound like one of those bitter people who have been renting since 2003 while you wait for prices to come down in the close-in neighborhoods. Prices started crashing in the outer 'burbs four years ago. If there was going to be a "substitution effect" close in it would have happened by now. The fact is, they are different markets. Sure, if we have an economic crash and enter a full-scale depression, house values may come down everywhere. However, it's interesting to me that all of my relatives that lived through the Great Depression only want to invest in real estate (and they've done really well at it, by the way, even in this market).

None of the above. You simply refuse acknowledge that DC real estate prices declined in the early 90s in places that included Cleveland Park. If you think Cleveland Park was "blue collar" in the early 90s, you're either stupid or gullible. Regardless of what some cave dweller from Kalorama or Spring Valley might tell you, it was one of DC's nicer neighborhoods then, as it is now, even if there were a few apartment complexes that a cab driver could afford.

DC and the inner suburbs have clearly fared better in recent years, but they are not immune from developments that affect regional real estate prices. What happened in the early 90s could happen again, and your suggestion that everyone places a short commute over other factors is flat-out wrong.

[Anonymous]

People are unhappy with Gray. DCPS remains poor. Metro is unreliable. Agency spending will be cut, which means fewer government jobs and less work for private-sector employees whose jobs are linked to government spending and programs.

Hang on to your hats. Those who spend $2M for a mid-size home in Cleveland Park have plenty of money at risk.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:People are unhappy with Gray. DCPS remains poor. Metro is unreliable. Agency spending will be cut, which means fewer government jobs and less work for private-sector employees whose jobs are linked to government spending and programs.

Hang on to your hats. Those who spend $2M for a mid-size home in Cleveland Park have plenty of money at risk.

OP here. There is always risk, but we don't plan on moving from this house for a very long time. We can afford the mortgage payments indefinitely and could muster up the cash to pay it off if we needed. Combine that with once in a lifetime low interest rates and our desire to move to the neighborhood, now is exactly the time for us to by a house in the $1.5M-$2.0M price range in Cleveland Park.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:OP here. There is always risk, but we don't plan on moving from this house for a very long time. We can afford the mortgage payments indefinitely and could muster up the cash to pay it off if we needed. Combine that with once in a lifetime low interest rates and our desire to move to the neighborhood, now is exactly the time for us to by a house in the $1.5M-$2.0M price range in Cleveland Park.

Then it may well be the right time for you to buy. But as for me, I'm going to hold off a few years and buy the house next door to you after it drops in price by $500,000.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:No, you missed the point. "Larger real estate trends" are interesting from a economics standpoint, but not necessarily relevant for purposes of the purchase of an individual home. If I had bought in the outer Virginia 'burbs in 2005, I'd be seriously underwater. People who bought in 2005 in Cleveland Park (or Arlington or Alexandria), absent transaction costs, are probably about even, or, at the most, lost some of their downpayment. We just sold our house for what it would have sold for in 2005. Why? Having lived in these neighborhoods for over 20 years, I can tell you that there are real demographic trends that have changed these neighborhoods. In the not too distant past, Cleveland Park was considered to be a "blue collar" neighborhood (as a long-time DC resident told me with a sniff once). One of my neighbors in the early 90's was a cab driver. There are a LOT of really well-salaried people in DC who don't want to fight the increasingly horrific traffic every day, and who are willing to pay for location. They are buying a house to live in, not an investment. And that, by definition, creates a market for these houses, and what they are willing to pay is the "market price." The market price is not what you think the house should be worth.

You sound like one of those bitter people who have been renting since 2003 while you wait for prices to come down in the close-in neighborhoods. Prices started crashing in the outer 'burbs four years ago. If there was going to be a "substitution effect" close in it would have happened by now. The fact is, they are different markets. Sure, if we have an economic crash and enter a full-scale depression, house values may come down everywhere. However, it's interesting to me that all of my relatives that lived through the Great Depression only want to invest in real estate (and they've done really well at it, by the way, even in this market).

None of the above. You simply refuse acknowledge that DC real estate prices declined in the early 90s in places that included Cleveland Park. If you think Cleveland Park was "blue collar" in the early 90s, you're either stupid or gullible. Regardless of what some cave dweller from Kalorama or Spring Valley might tell you, it was one of DC's nicer neighborhoods then, as it is now, even if there were a few apartment complexes that a cab driver could afford.

DC and the inner suburbs have clearly fared better in recent years, but they are not immune from developments that affect regional real estate prices. What happened in the early 90s could happen again, and your suggestion that everyone places a short commute over other factors is flat-out wrong.

Between your reading comprehension problems, and your propensity to set up "straw men" so you can knock them down, I don't know where to start. In any case, I did not say that Cleveland Park was a blue collar neighborhood in the 90's. I said that at that time, it had been considered to be a blue collar neighborhood "in the not too distant past," and many of the older residents remained. Most of them bought before the metro was built (the cab driver lived in a substantial single family home on one of the streets that OP wants to live on, by the way). In those days, it was not uncommon to find houses on the market that had not been touched. I remember a very large house across the street from Rosemont that had the original butler's pantry and zinc sinks from when it was built. In the 90's, real estate values were obviously going up, but people still made fun of younger people who lived there, as it was considered to be a stodgy neighborhood for retired people.

Finally, obviously many people have priorities other than length of commute. The outer burbs are teeming with them. However, what I did say is that there are a large number of very well to do folks with demanding jobs who do place a priority on a close-in location. In the 90's, most of the well-off people I knew who didn't live in Chevy Chase lived in Potomac or Bethesda or Great Falls. As bad as traffic was then, it was nothing compared to now. Today, all of those folks have moved closer in.

Even if I lose money on my next house, I'll still be ahead of those who waited to buy because "these prices just can't be sustainable." I have owned three houses in close-in Washington neighborhoods that had all doubled in value when I sold them. You didn't answer my question about whether you are a bitter renter who missed the boat on Washington real estate, so I will presume that the answer is yes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:OP here. There is always risk, but we don't plan on moving from this house for a very long time. We can afford the mortgage payments indefinitely and could muster up the cash to pay it off if we needed. Combine that with once in a lifetime low interest rates and our desire to move to the neighborhood, now is exactly the time for us to by a house in the $1.5M-$2.0M price range in Cleveland Park.

Then it may well be the right time for you to buy. But as for me, I'm going to hold off a few years and buy the house next door to you after it drops in price by $500,000.

Just keep telling yourself that. I bet you've been saying that since 2007, when prices in the outer suburbs dropped.

[Anonymous]

I think Cleveland and Woodley Park are safe bets. We bought in 2008 in CP for what was a "high" price for our building. Last week a unit identical to ours except smaller sold for 10% more than what we paid. Everything around us that has gone on the market has sold quickly. The neighborhood just has some features that are inherently attractive to a lot of people.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:
OP here. There is always risk, but we don't plan on moving from this house for a very long time. We can afford the mortgage payments indefinitely and could muster up the cash to pay it off if we needed. Combine that with once in a lifetime low interest rates and our desire to move to the neighborhood, now is exactly the time for us to by a house in the $1.5M-$2.0M price range in Cleveland Park.

The longer you live in the house, the less short-term fluctuations in home prices will seem relevant. But, make no mistake about it, you are putting a lot of money at risk buying a house that expensive in CP.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I think Cleveland and Woodley Park are safe bets. We bought in 2008 in CP for what was a "high" price for our building. Last week a unit identical to ours except smaller sold for 10% more than what we paid. Everything around us that has gone on the market has sold quickly. The neighborhood just has some features that are inherently attractive to a lot of people.

A three-year period that coincides with the first three years of what could turn out to be a one-term administration that has substantially grown the Federal Government may not be enormously predictive of the future. It's thinking that real estate prices always trend in the same direction that have led so many to lose their shirts.