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[Anonymous]

Why do they think McLean enrollment is declining? Idk it seems like they are cooking the books on this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Why do they think McLean enrollment is declining? Idk it seems like they are cooking the books on this.

Because they are phasing in the 2021 boundary adjustment to Langley already.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do they think McLean enrollment is declining? Idk it seems like they are cooking the books on this.

Because they are phasing in the 2021 boundary adjustment to Langley already.

That shouldn't be the reason. This is the fourth and final year of phasing-in that 2021 boundary adjustment, so it should have been reflected in the extended forecasts in several prior CIPs.

I think the issue is that the numbers from the ES and MS feeders are down and don't support the earlier projections. About 2/3 of the people buying new houses in our MHS-zoned neighborhood are sending their kids to privates, and it looks like the number of Longfellow kids going to TJ is back up again.

[Anonymous]

You are not going to get large numbers of kids from new developments going to FCPS. Moving into a new neighborhood of course you look at the local forums page. Parents will see how bad FCPS is and how private.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You are not going to get large numbers of kids from new developments going to FCPS. Moving into a new neighborhood of course you look at the local forums page. Parents will see how bad FCPS is and how private.

It depends on the type of development. Low income will probably yield a lot more than SFH development

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The draft 2026-30 CIP was posted today. It appears they largely roll forward information from prior CIPs, with some updated enrollment projections but otherwise little new thinking.

Some "highlights":

* They claim that they will be working on a new renovation queue, which contradicts a statement in another recent FCPS document (relating to Dr. Reid's meeting her performance obligations) that implies they are already working on a new queue.

* They are projecting a slight increase in total enrollment next year (SY 2025-26), followed by four years of declining enrollments that would leave FCPS with fewer students than at any point since 2015.

* They have jacked up the projected budget for the unnecessary Dunn Loring ES in Vienna to almost $86 million, with no explanation as to why this project is still in the CIP. Notably, once-overcrowded, nearby Shrevewood ES, which years ago was crowded and seeking capacity relief, is now projected to be at only 64% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They continue to refer to a new western high school (location TBD), with planning work now bumped to 2032 (in the last CIP, planning was purportedly scheduled to begin in 2030).

* They prioritize renovations and expansions of elementary schools built in the late 1980s over enhancements to older high schools built decades earlier (even when those ES expansions are expected to leave several of these ES under 65% capacity).

* The schools identified as currently grossly overcrowded (over 114% capacity), or projected to be so in five years, taking modular seats into account, are limited to Coates ES (subject of pending boundary study), Kilmer MS, and West Springfield HS. Note that they have significantly reduced the "program capacity" for Kilmer MS in this CIP compared to prior CIPs, which is why Kilmer is now identified as grossly overcrowded.

* They have slightly increased their enrollment projections over the next five years for Herndon HS, but still project that HHS will only be at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30); on the other hand, they have reduced their enrollment projections for Herndon MS and now project that HMS will be at 85% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They have significantly reduced their five-year enrollment projections for McLean HS, such that they now project that in five years McLean will only be at 103% capacity, including the current modular.

* The five-year projections for Lewis and Mount Vernon HS have Lewis at 78% capacity and Mount Vernon at 67% capacity in SY 2029-30. Conversely, West Springfield HS is projected to have over 3000 students and to be at 120% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* The draft CIP continues to assume an expansion of Centreville HS to 3000 seats, which would leave the school at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30. Nearby Chantilly HS is projected to see a decline in enrollment over the next five years, such that it would be at 98% capacity in SY 2029-30, taking the modular seats at the school into account.

Does anyone have insight into the cause of the decline in enrollment at Shrevewood ES?

The main thing I’ve heard is that a lot of Shrevewood families with LLIV-eligible kids prefer the AAP center at Lemon Road, but that wouldn’t account for more than a fraction of the enrollment decline.

Only 19 LL-IV students stayed at Shrevewood this year with 82 transferring to Lemon Road. In 2022 (I can’t get 2023’s numbers), there were 76 students in Shrevewood’s LL-IV with only 44 students transferring to Lemon Road. That’s at least half of the enrollment decline. Shrevewood dropped from 646 to 575 students in one year.

That’s a big decline, IMO. My children have aged out of this school, but I remain interested. I wonder if families in the new community next to the school are sending their children to FCPS or private? There are several homes in that community.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The draft 2026-30 CIP was posted today. It appears they largely roll forward information from prior CIPs, with some updated enrollment projections but otherwise little new thinking.

Some "highlights":

* They claim that they will be working on a new renovation queue, which contradicts a statement in another recent FCPS document (relating to Dr. Reid's meeting her performance obligations) that implies they are already working on a new queue.

* They are projecting a slight increase in total enrollment next year (SY 2025-26), followed by four years of declining enrollments that would leave FCPS with fewer students than at any point since 2015.

* They have jacked up the projected budget for the unnecessary Dunn Loring ES in Vienna to almost $86 million, with no explanation as to why this project is still in the CIP. Notably, once-overcrowded, nearby Shrevewood ES, which years ago was crowded and seeking capacity relief, is now projected to be at only 64% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They continue to refer to a new western high school (location TBD), with planning work now bumped to 2032 (in the last CIP, planning was purportedly scheduled to begin in 2030).

* They prioritize renovations and expansions of elementary schools built in the late 1980s over enhancements to older high schools built decades earlier (even when those ES expansions are expected to leave several of these ES under 65% capacity).

* The schools identified as currently grossly overcrowded (over 114% capacity), or projected to be so in five years, taking modular seats into account, are limited to Coates ES (subject of pending boundary study), Kilmer MS, and West Springfield HS. Note that they have significantly reduced the "program capacity" for Kilmer MS in this CIP compared to prior CIPs, which is why Kilmer is now identified as grossly overcrowded.

* They have slightly increased their enrollment projections over the next five years for Herndon HS, but still project that HHS will only be at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30); on the other hand, they have reduced their enrollment projections for Herndon MS and now project that HMS will be at 85% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They have significantly reduced their five-year enrollment projections for McLean HS, such that they now project that in five years McLean will only be at 103% capacity, including the current modular.

* The five-year projections for Lewis and Mount Vernon HS have Lewis at 78% capacity and Mount Vernon at 67% capacity in SY 2029-30. Conversely, West Springfield HS is projected to have over 3000 students and to be at 120% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* The draft CIP continues to assume an expansion of Centreville HS to 3000 seats, which would leave the school at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30. Nearby Chantilly HS is projected to see a decline in enrollment over the next five years, such that it would be at 98% capacity in SY 2029-30, taking the modular seats at the school into account.

Does anyone have insight into the cause of the decline in enrollment at Shrevewood ES?

The main thing I’ve heard is that a lot of Shrevewood families with LLIV-eligible kids prefer the AAP center at Lemon Road, but that wouldn’t account for more than a fraction of the enrollment decline.

Only 19 LL-IV students stayed at Shrevewood this year with 82 transferring to Lemon Road. In 2022 (I can’t get 2023’s numbers), there were 76 students in Shrevewood’s LL-IV with only 44 students transferring to Lemon Road. That’s at least half of the enrollment decline. Shrevewood dropped from 646 to 575 students in one year.

That’s a big decline, IMO. My children have aged out of this school, but I remain interested. I wonder if families in the new community next to the school are sending their children to FCPS or private? There are several homes in that community.

They are projecting Shrevewood will be down to 435 kids by 2029. Quite a drop from 2018, when the school had 773 kids.

Remind me again why Karl Frisch is pushing a new elementary school in Dunn Loring to help with overcrowding (sic) at Shrevewood. Why hasn’t the CIP been updated to cancel this wasteful project and put the money to better use? Are Frisch and his colleagues brain dead?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The draft 2026-30 CIP was posted today. It appears they largely roll forward information from prior CIPs, with some updated enrollment projections but otherwise little new thinking.

Some "highlights":

* They claim that they will be working on a new renovation queue, which contradicts a statement in another recent FCPS document (relating to Dr. Reid's meeting her performance obligations) that implies they are already working on a new queue.

* They are projecting a slight increase in total enrollment next year (SY 2025-26), followed by four years of declining enrollments that would leave FCPS with fewer students than at any point since 2015.

* They have jacked up the projected budget for the unnecessary Dunn Loring ES in Vienna to almost $86 million, with no explanation as to why this project is still in the CIP. Notably, once-overcrowded, nearby Shrevewood ES, which years ago was crowded and seeking capacity relief, is now projected to be at only 64% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They continue to refer to a new western high school (location TBD), with planning work now bumped to 2032 (in the last CIP, planning was purportedly scheduled to begin in 2030).

* They prioritize renovations and expansions of elementary schools built in the late 1980s over enhancements to older high schools built decades earlier (even when those ES expansions are expected to leave several of these ES under 65% capacity).

* The schools identified as currently grossly overcrowded (over 114% capacity), or projected to be so in five years, taking modular seats into account, are limited to Coates ES (subject of pending boundary study), Kilmer MS, and West Springfield HS. Note that they have significantly reduced the "program capacity" for Kilmer MS in this CIP compared to prior CIPs, which is why Kilmer is now identified as grossly overcrowded.

* They have slightly increased their enrollment projections over the next five years for Herndon HS, but still project that HHS will only be at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30); on the other hand, they have reduced their enrollment projections for Herndon MS and now project that HMS will be at 85% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They have significantly reduced their five-year enrollment projections for McLean HS, such that they now project that in five years McLean will only be at 103% capacity, including the current modular.

* The five-year projections for Lewis and Mount Vernon HS have Lewis at 78% capacity and Mount Vernon at 67% capacity in SY 2029-30. Conversely, West Springfield HS is projected to have over 3000 students and to be at 120% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* The draft CIP continues to assume an expansion of Centreville HS to 3000 seats, which would leave the school at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30. Nearby Chantilly HS is projected to see a decline in enrollment over the next five years, such that it would be at 98% capacity in SY 2029-30, taking the modular seats at the school into account.

Does anyone have insight into the cause of the decline in enrollment at Shrevewood ES?

The main thing I’ve heard is that a lot of Shrevewood families with LLIV-eligible kids prefer the AAP center at Lemon Road, but that wouldn’t account for more than a fraction of the enrollment decline.

Only 19 LL-IV students stayed at Shrevewood this year with 82 transferring to Lemon Road. In 2022 (I can’t get 2023’s numbers), there were 76 students in Shrevewood’s LL-IV with only 44 students transferring to Lemon Road. That’s at least half of the enrollment decline. Shrevewood dropped from 646 to 575 students in one year.

That’s a big decline, IMO. My children have aged out of this school, but I remain interested. I wonder if families in the new community next to the school are sending their children to FCPS or private? There are several homes in that community.

They are projecting Shrevewood will be down to 435 kids by 2029. Quite a drop from 2018, when the school had 773 kids.

Remind me again why Karl Frisch is pushing a new elementary school in Dunn Loring to help with overcrowding (sic) at Shrevewood. Why hasn’t the CIP been updated to cancel this wasteful project and put the money to better use? Are Frisch and his colleagues brain dead?

Frisch is focused on furthering his political career by moving to state-level office. He has always and only viewed this job as a stepping stone. Whatever he can attempt to maneuver into a reason for electing him to another office he will do. But it has to be quick, and real meaningful changes are rarely quick.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The draft 2026-30 CIP was posted today. It appears they largely roll forward information from prior CIPs, with some updated enrollment projections but otherwise little new thinking.

Some "highlights":

* They claim that they will be working on a new renovation queue, which contradicts a statement in another recent FCPS document (relating to Dr. Reid's meeting her performance obligations) that implies they are already working on a new queue.

* They are projecting a slight increase in total enrollment next year (SY 2025-26), followed by four years of declining enrollments that would leave FCPS with fewer students than at any point since 2015.

* They have jacked up the projected budget for the unnecessary Dunn Loring ES in Vienna to almost $86 million, with no explanation as to why this project is still in the CIP. Notably, once-overcrowded, nearby Shrevewood ES, which years ago was crowded and seeking capacity relief, is now projected to be at only 64% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They continue to refer to a new western high school (location TBD), with planning work now bumped to 2032 (in the last CIP, planning was purportedly scheduled to begin in 2030).

* They prioritize renovations and expansions of elementary schools built in the late 1980s over enhancements to older high schools built decades earlier (even when those ES expansions are expected to leave several of these ES under 65% capacity).

* The schools identified as currently grossly overcrowded (over 114% capacity), or projected to be so in five years, taking modular seats into account, are limited to Coates ES (subject of pending boundary study), Kilmer MS, and West Springfield HS. Note that they have significantly reduced the "program capacity" for Kilmer MS in this CIP compared to prior CIPs, which is why Kilmer is now identified as grossly overcrowded.

* They have slightly increased their enrollment projections over the next five years for Herndon HS, but still project that HHS will only be at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30); on the other hand, they have reduced their enrollment projections for Herndon MS and now project that HMS will be at 85% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They have significantly reduced their five-year enrollment projections for McLean HS, such that they now project that in five years McLean will only be at 103% capacity, including the current modular.

* The five-year projections for Lewis and Mount Vernon HS have Lewis at 78% capacity and Mount Vernon at 67% capacity in SY 2029-30. Conversely, West Springfield HS is projected to have over 3000 students and to be at 120% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* The draft CIP continues to assume an expansion of Centreville HS to 3000 seats, which would leave the school at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30. Nearby Chantilly HS is projected to see a decline in enrollment over the next five years, such that it would be at 98% capacity in SY 2029-30, taking the modular seats at the school into account.

Does anyone have insight into the cause of the decline in enrollment at Shrevewood ES?

The main thing I’ve heard is that a lot of Shrevewood families with LLIV-eligible kids prefer the AAP center at Lemon Road, but that wouldn’t account for more than a fraction of the enrollment decline.

Only 19 LL-IV students stayed at Shrevewood this year with 82 transferring to Lemon Road. In 2022 (I can’t get 2023’s numbers), there were 76 students in Shrevewood’s LL-IV with only 44 students transferring to Lemon Road. That’s at least half of the enrollment decline. Shrevewood dropped from 646 to 575 students in one year.

That’s a big decline, IMO. My children have aged out of this school, but I remain interested. I wonder if families in the new community next to the school are sending their children to FCPS or private? There are several homes in that community.

They are projecting Shrevewood will be down to 435 kids by 2029. Quite a drop from 2018, when the school had 773 kids.

Remind me again why Karl Frisch is pushing a new elementary school in Dunn Loring to help with overcrowding (sic) at Shrevewood. Why hasn’t the CIP been updated to cancel this wasteful project and put the money to better use? Are Frisch and his colleagues brain dead?

Frisch is focused on furthering his political career by moving to state-level office. He has always and only viewed this job as a stepping stone. Whatever he can attempt to maneuver into a reason for electing him to another office he will do. But it has to be quick, and real meaningful changes are rarely quick.

If that’s true, he’s about to tie the biggest albatross around his neck with the boundary review. I’d love to campaign against him with that track record.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The draft 2026-30 CIP was posted today. It appears they largely roll forward information from prior CIPs, with some updated enrollment projections but otherwise little new thinking.

Some "highlights":

* They claim that they will be working on a new renovation queue, which contradicts a statement in another recent FCPS document (relating to Dr. Reid's meeting her performance obligations) that implies they are already working on a new queue.

* They are projecting a slight increase in total enrollment next year (SY 2025-26), followed by four years of declining enrollments that would leave FCPS with fewer students than at any point since 2015.

* They have jacked up the projected budget for the unnecessary Dunn Loring ES in Vienna to almost $86 million, with no explanation as to why this project is still in the CIP. Notably, once-overcrowded, nearby Shrevewood ES, which years ago was crowded and seeking capacity relief, is now projected to be at only 64% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They continue to refer to a new western high school (location TBD), with planning work now bumped to 2032 (in the last CIP, planning was purportedly scheduled to begin in 2030).

* They prioritize renovations and expansions of elementary schools built in the late 1980s over enhancements to older high schools built decades earlier (even when those ES expansions are expected to leave several of these ES under 65% capacity).

* The schools identified as currently grossly overcrowded (over 114% capacity), or projected to be so in five years, taking modular seats into account, are limited to Coates ES (subject of pending boundary study), Kilmer MS, and West Springfield HS. Note that they have significantly reduced the "program capacity" for Kilmer MS in this CIP compared to prior CIPs, which is why Kilmer is now identified as grossly overcrowded.

* They have slightly increased their enrollment projections over the next five years for Herndon HS, but still project that HHS will only be at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30); on the other hand, they have reduced their enrollment projections for Herndon MS and now project that HMS will be at 85% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* They have significantly reduced their five-year enrollment projections for McLean HS, such that they now project that in five years McLean will only be at 103% capacity, including the current modular.

* The five-year projections for Lewis and Mount Vernon HS have Lewis at 78% capacity and Mount Vernon at 67% capacity in SY 2029-30. Conversely, West Springfield HS is projected to have over 3000 students and to be at 120% capacity in SY 2029-30.

* The draft CIP continues to assume an expansion of Centreville HS to 3000 seats, which would leave the school at 69% capacity in SY 2029-30. Nearby Chantilly HS is projected to see a decline in enrollment over the next five years, such that it would be at 98% capacity in SY 2029-30, taking the modular seats at the school into account.

Does anyone have insight into the cause of the decline in enrollment at Shrevewood ES?

The main thing I’ve heard is that a lot of Shrevewood families with LLIV-eligible kids prefer the AAP center at Lemon Road, but that wouldn’t account for more than a fraction of the enrollment decline.

Only 19 LL-IV students stayed at Shrevewood this year with 82 transferring to Lemon Road. In 2022 (I can’t get 2023’s numbers), there were 76 students in Shrevewood’s LL-IV with only 44 students transferring to Lemon Road. That’s at least half of the enrollment decline. Shrevewood dropped from 646 to 575 students in one year.

That’s a big decline, IMO. My children have aged out of this school, but I remain interested. I wonder if families in the new community next to the school are sending their children to FCPS or private? There are several homes in that community.

They are projecting Shrevewood will be down to 435 kids by 2029. Quite a drop from 2018, when the school had 773 kids.

Remind me again why Karl Frisch is pushing a new elementary school in Dunn Loring to help with overcrowding (sic) at Shrevewood. Why hasn’t the CIP been updated to cancel this wasteful project and put the money to better use? Are Frisch and his colleagues brain dead?

Frisch is focused on furthering his political career by moving to state-level office. He has always and only viewed this job as a stepping stone. Whatever he can attempt to maneuver into a reason for electing him to another office he will do. But it has to be quick, and real meaningful changes are rarely quick.

I would think he’d enhance his credibility for higher office if he stepped up to the plate, said conditions have changed, pulled the plug on the wasteful Dunn Loring ES, and moved that the SB either save or reallocate the money. But it’s apparently his vanity project, just like the Lewis “leadership academy” was for Karen Keys Gamarra.