WashPost: one US college closing per week

[Anonymous]

Demand for college is about to go down. In the next few years there will be fewer graduating seniors than in past years starting in 2025. I've been following this because I have kids who will graduate over the next 5-10 years.

[Anonymous]

Aren't there like 3,000 to 4,000 colleges

[Anonymous]

At this rate, the U.S. will have zero universities by 2081. Something has to be done.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:High school counselors need to start including this when talking to parents and students about college. How and why to check the financial health and accreditation status of colleges and universities

I agree. Especially for first generation students where the concept of college and the financing aspect are new for them. Having a college close and still having to pay loans can be an economic disaster for these families.

Even if this issue doesn’t affect most people, it’s something we should all be aware no. Nobody is saying no colleges will remain but the economic picture for certain smaller schools is very uncertain. People need to do their homework and research financial viability of higher education institutions as part of the process.

[Anonymous]

If enrollment is down, why is it harder to get in?

[Anonymous]

Most of the closed colleges that I am familiar with (from spending most of my life in New England) were originally "junior colleges" (2 year associates degree) back in the day (I am also old). In those days, they filled a niche and were successful. Now that niche is filled by community colleges.
At some point, they all shifted to being 4 year colleges, which put them in direct competition with schools having more resources. I know some of them had one or two specific programs that were very successful (an old friend taught in the vet tech program at Mt Ida, which was well -respected in the field) but they could not offer as many options as other 4 year colleges, especially state colleges costing about the same as them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:If enrollment is down, why is it harder to get in?

Applicants are concentrating on certain types of schools, eg large southern state universities, which means declining enrollment at these smaller regional institutions. The demand has shifted.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is why most people only want to go to a T20 school.

Most of the big state schools are below T20, and they are fine.

I would be worried about the SLACs.

No need to worry

[Anonymous]

The colleges that will be in trouble:

For-profit colleges everywhere. Their scams have been exposed and their students often can't get aid. Good riddance.

Very small privates with small endowments that, as others have said, started out as: obscure women's colleges, junior colleges, or religiously affiliated with smaller and shrinking denominations that can no longer financially support them.

Larger privates with small endowments that grew recently, and especially those that are in shrinking parts of the US. High Point and Libertv are easy ones to see shrinking. I don't want to pick a fight with Northeastern boosters, but it's hard to see big enrollments continuing there when BU NEU, and maybe BC are all fishing in the same shrinking pool.

Non-flagship state colleges in dying parts of the country will shrink. They have almost no endowments and state legislatures will eventually push for shrinking and consolidating. This process is already underway in PA, with a few of its former teachers colleges (which all greatly expanded over the past 30 or 40 years) being slated to consolidate.

State flagships in declining states will shrink enrollment. They won't disappear, but enrollments will shrink at places like WVU, UMass, UNH, and Minnesota.

[Anonymous]

Minnesota and UMass? Ah, no.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The colleges that will be in trouble:

For-profit colleges everywhere. Their scams have been exposed and their students often can't get aid. Good riddance.

Very small privates with small endowments that, as others have said, started out as: obscure women's colleges, junior colleges, or religiously affiliated with smaller and shrinking denominations that can no longer financially support them.

Larger privates with small endowments that grew recently, and especially those that are in shrinking parts of the US. High Point and Libertv are easy ones to see shrinking. I don't want to pick a fight with Northeastern boosters, but it's hard to see big enrollments continuing there when BU NEU, and maybe BC are all fishing in the same shrinking pool.

Non-flagship state colleges in dying parts of the country will shrink. They have almost no endowments and state legislatures will eventually push for shrinking and consolidating. This process is already underway in PA, with a few of its former teachers colleges (which all greatly expanded over the past 30 or 40 years) being slated to consolidate.

State flagships in declining states will shrink enrollment. They won't disappear, but enrollments will shrink at places like WVU, UMass, UNH, and Minnesota.

Starting this school year, six of the Pennsylvania state owned colleges (5-10k students in each one) were merged to form two colleges. I assume other states in the NE and Midwest will start doing the same. These are colleges that mostly serve an in- state student base, and these states have dwindling high school graduation classes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Minnesota and UMass? Ah, no.

Of course they will shrink enrollment. Minnesota already will do pretty much anything to get out of state students.

The very average son of my neighbor was offered lots of money to go from DC. They need bodies.

Any state school that depends mostly on in- state applicants and is in a declining state, will have to cut enrollment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:This is why most people only want to go to a T20 school.

Most of the big state schools are below T20, and they are fine.

I would be worried about the SLACs.

not the top ones. This is all a flight to perceived quality. There is way too much capacity. But the impact will all be at the bottom. Applications at the top half of colleges will keep going up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The colleges that will be in trouble:

For-profit colleges everywhere. Their scams have been exposed and their students often can't get aid. Good riddance.

Very small privates with small endowments that, as others have said, started out as: obscure women's colleges, junior colleges, or religiously affiliated with smaller and shrinking denominations that can no longer financially support them.

Larger privates with small endowments that grew recently, and especially those that are in shrinking parts of the US. High Point and Libertv are easy ones to see shrinking. I don't want to pick a fight with Northeastern boosters, but it's hard to see big enrollments continuing there when BU NEU, and maybe BC are all fishing in the same shrinking pool.

Non-flagship state colleges in dying parts of the country will shrink. They have almost no endowments and state legislatures will eventually push for shrinking and consolidating. This process is already underway in PA, with a few of its former teachers colleges (which all greatly expanded over the past 30 or 40 years) being slated to consolidate.

State flagships in declining states will shrink enrollment. They won't disappear, but enrollments will shrink at places like WVU, UMass, UNH, and Minnesota.

Agree with part but not the rest. High Point is growing not shrinking. You will see a larger and larger enrollment there. They are taking from the pool that you correctly say is in trouble. No idea on Liberty.

On Boston -- BC does not fish in the same water as BU never mind NEU. BC overlap are Ivy's, UVA, ND, and the like. If anything NEU is the safety for BC. I don't see NEU in trouble. They have a model and will take from the places below them.

I also do not see those state school you listed in any trouble or cutting back at all. They will all take from the failing pool of places that you listed. UMAss in particular. They will fill seats at the flagship from the non-flagships. Those will take seats from the failing ones.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The colleges that will be in trouble:

For-profit colleges everywhere. Their scams have been exposed and their students often can't get aid. Good riddance.

Very small privates with small endowments that, as others have said, started out as: obscure women's colleges, junior colleges, or religiously affiliated with smaller and shrinking denominations that can no longer financially support them.

Larger privates with small endowments that grew recently, and especially those that are in shrinking parts of the US. High Point and Libertv are easy ones to see shrinking. I don't want to pick a fight with Northeastern boosters, but it's hard to see big enrollments continuing there when BU NEU, and maybe BC are all fishing in the same shrinking pool.

Non-flagship state colleges in dying parts of the country will shrink. They have almost no endowments and state legislatures will eventually push for shrinking and consolidating. This process is already underway in PA, with a few of its former teachers colleges (which all greatly expanded over the past 30 or 40 years) being slated to consolidate.

State flagships in declining states will shrink enrollment. They won't disappear, but enrollments will shrink at places like WVU, UMass, UNH, and Minnesota.

Agree with part but not the rest. High Point is growing not shrinking. You will see a larger and larger enrollment there. They are taking from the pool that you correctly say is in trouble. No idea on Liberty.

On Boston -- BC does not fish in the same water as BU never mind NEU. BC overlap are Ivy's, UVA, ND, and the like. If anything NEU is the safety for BC. I don't see NEU in trouble. They have a model and will take from the places below them.

I also do not see those state school you listed in any trouble or cutting back at all. They will all take from the failing pool of places that you listed. UMAss in particular. They will fill seats at the flagship from the non-flagships. Those will take seats from the failing ones.

Univetsity of minnesota system dropped almost 6% in enrollment over past five years, including about half that rate as the drop at the main campus.
Umass enrollment dropped 1.3% over past year, and everyone there is worried, most immediately for satellite campuses. UNH dropped 13% enrollment over past six years and is cutting programming. WVU is an epic mess.

And the big drop doesn't really start until next year. Then it will be 10% nationally for the first five years, with continuing drops for additional years. Obviously, it's not even New England leads in the population drop, but rest of Northeast and Midwest will drop a lot.