Anyone have the list of colleges TJ's class of 2019 is headed to?
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Anonymous
That doesn't seem likely. It is about 75% of the class. Why would there be such an extreme bias in those who don't report? |
Anonymous
VT has a comprehensive engineering program, but it is so large that it does not appear elite enough for TJ grads. UVA is relatively small, but it is far from comprehensive. If you magically had Berkeley in Virginia, it would capture a lot more TJ grads than UVA and VT combined. |
Anonymous
Because people on this board and at the school have determined that UVa and VT are not sufficiently prestigious outcomes after TJ, never mind the value proposition. The ones who are not reporting are not all Stamford and MIT, sorry. |
Anonymous
No one said they are all Stanford and MIT. But what would lead us to believe the 75% that did report aren't a representative sample? |
Anonymous
It may be a consequence of more TJ grads getting rejected to these schools. We need to see the applied/accepted/enrolled data. |
Anonymous
Putting different sources together, UVA is something like 348 applied, 197 accepted, and 37 indicated they will attend (75% of graduates reporting). VT is 243 applied, 182 accepted, 16 indicated they will attend (again with 75% of graduates reporting). Overall yield for UVA in-state is about 58%. If you assume about 50 attend UVA (based on the Bull Elephant data 37 attending with 75% reporting), then UVA yield for TJ grads is about 25%. It could be that this year's TJ yield is low for some reason, but you can see yield is still going to be well below the in-state average. For VT, overall yield for in-state students is about 46%. If you assume about 21 attend VT (based on the Bull Elephant data of 16 attending with 75% reporting), then VT yield for TJ grads is about 12%. Again, it could well be that this year's TJ yield is low for some reason, but yield is still well below in-state average. I think the poster above had it right. A lot of these kids have good options and it appears more and more of them are choosing to go elsewhere. |
Anonymous
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I did end of the year recitals and banquets and senior nights for two TJ kids this year. And for most, where the kids were attending was listed. So, I’ve seen the lost in bits and pieces.
A few observations. Kids who don’t know they want Vat aren’t even applying because it requires the coalition app. And everything else TJ does for colleges is common app based. So, kids who might have put a safety app into VT are applying to Pitt instead. Speaking of which, Pitt is increasingly attractive for TJ kids. Pittsburgh has really turned itself around, they take the common app, have rolling admissions and you can take some classes at CMU. Plus, they literally take 99% of TJ applicants, and rumor is they give enough merit aid to TJ kids to get the price down to VT— or less. My kid is applying now. If VAt did common app, he’d check the box. But unless Pitt rejects him in October, he has his safety school, and no desire to start over with the Coalition. It sucks the one of the top tier VA schools hold out for a second round of essays, and a second application. TJ also has a lot of kids who can afford in state but not full rode private. And once you get below the top 25% of the class going to Ivy’s and taking out loans, kids are shopping for merit aid to bring the cost down to in state. And/or are applying for T10 engineering/CS. 2019 numbers aren’t up yet, but in the last 4 years, there were 6 applications to St. Olaf, 5 acceptances, 4 attending. That’s a lot of merit money. Oberlin and Grinnell also attract relatively few applications— but more than 5 years ago. CWRU is another biggie. All schools with great merit. |
Anonymous
TJ has 110 enrolling in Ivy's? |
Anonymous
It looks like about 33 in Bull Elephant (with 5% reporting). |
Anonymous
I think you meant with 75% indicating where they will attend. |
Anonymous
Seems to be consistent with the 36 from last year that supplied their info. It seems roughly 8-10% enroll in Ivy's if you assume the reporting is random. |
Anonymous
And real top targets would be Ivy + MIT + Stanford + Caltech. That adds another 10 for 2019 for a total of 43 with 75% reporting. That is very good. |
Anonymous
No. But top 25% has a decent shot at an Ivy. Everyone else can forget it. And if you roll in top 5 engineering/CS schools like CMU, Chicago, Stanford, MIT, Cal Tech you probably are hitting 80-100 kids. |
Anonymous
^^ should say CMU, Berkeley, MIT, Cal Tech, (I’d add Michigan engineering), plus Chicago, Stanford, Duke... |
Anonymous
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Because you asked and Naviance 2019 loaded:
Don’t flame if my math is wrong somewhere. I did it on the back of a sheet of paper. In state applied/ accepted/ attending: UVA: 333/152/53. (48% admit rate and In line with prior years) WM: 189/153/40 (80% admit rate and in line with prior years) VT: 99/71/21 (the huge surprise. Normally 200-250 kids apply. But only low 20s attend each year. So their attend number stayed stable). Also: GMU 17 VCU. 9 (their guaranteed admit med school program is popular at TJ) So: 114 to UVA/WM/VT and 142 in state (although I didn’t pull every state school, no one to CNU) Pitt: 116/113/25. Making it the 3rd most popular school and this the first year more kids applied to Pitt than VT and more kids attend Pitt than VT. They give amazing merit aid to TJ kids, the counselors love them, and rolling admissions). 39 to Ivys: Cornell topping the list at 15 (it’s always high, b/c engineering) 8 to Harvard 5 to Yale 4 to Princeton 2 to Columbia 1 to Dartmouth 0 to Brown 29 to Almost Ivy’s: 8 to MIT 1 to Cal Tech 12 to Chicago, out of 15 accepted (!!!— that’s a huge number for a non-engineering/CS school) 4 each to Stanford and Duke 75 to the T10 Engineering schools not already listed: 17 to Michigan 6 to GT 10 to Berkeley 15 to CMU 13 to UI-CU 10 to Purdue 4 to UT Austin 14 total to the other T20 National Us not already listed put together, with 1-2 per school, except 3 to UCLA and 4 to WashU 2 to Williams. I didn’t pullall of the top SLACs, but kids were admitted to, but are not attending Amherst, Swarthmore, and Davidson. Other places I spot checked b/c I know kids going: Grinnell (1), Kenyon (1), CWRU (3), Ohio State (2), Penn State (6) So that’s 339 of the 425. The rest are likely to be 1-2 students each to T50 schools, a few SLACs, and T10-T20 engineering. Probably at least 10-12 at other UCs combined, although I didn’t pull each one. Make of it what you will. I’m shocked that VT went from 243 apps in 2018 to 99 in 2019. And had fewer students enroll than Pitt for the first time. And had fewer students apply than Pitt, Michigan or GT. Especially in a year when VT overenrolled. What I’m hearing (based on a sample size of about 4) is that kids aren’t filling out the Coalition app and writing the extra essays unless they really want VT. They are using Pitt as their safety instead. Anyway, looks like a great year to me. But, have at it. |