New when will furloughed feds go back to work guesses

[Anonymous]

In a shock to no one, the cloture vote failed for the 11th time this evening.

Meanwhile, Thune says no negotiations until a CR passes.

Betting odds as of an hour ago give a 68% chance to it lasting more than 30 days, 51% to it lasting more than 35 days.

From tomorrow’s schedule it appears to me that they convene at 10am and there is no vote on cloture for the CR scheduled as of now. So that means at earliest, we go back Thursday if they vote on Wednesday and it somehow moves forward on its 12th vote…

I’m hoping by Nov 4, but think it’s seeming more and more likely this drags through Thanksgiving.

[Anonymous]

Where do you see the betting odds? Personally, I want and need to get back to work. I am going to start writing my Democrat senators and ask them to please cave. It's over already. Evil won, just accept it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where do you see the betting odds? Personally, I want and need to get back to work. I am going to start writing my Democrat senators and ask them to please cave. It's over already. Evil won, just accept it.

I Googled, and a Forbes article from a little over an hour ago came up with the most recent odds.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where do you see the betting odds? Personally, I want and need to get back to work. I am going to start writing my Democrat senators and ask them to please cave. It's over already. Evil won, just accept it.

Nope. Freedom isn’t free. It will only get worse if they win.

[Anonymous]

I’m going to Europe right after Thanksgiving. I’m not sure if I want to fly with the lack of ATCs. Sigh.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where do you see the betting odds? Personally, I want and need to get back to work. I am going to start writing my Democrat senators and ask them to please cave. It's over already. Evil won, just accept it.

I want and need to go back to work, but I don't want them to cave. If Dems cave, we probably don't get backpay (despite the law) and the layoffs and recisions will just increase. Meanwhile, there is growing pressure on Republicans to resolve this.

There's no chance this ends before November, regardless - among other reasons, I think the White House wants a "record" duration.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where do you see the betting odds? Personally, I want and need to get back to work. I am going to start writing my Democrat senators and ask them to please cave. It's over already. Evil won, just accept it.

Nope. Freedom isn’t free. It will only get worse if they win.

What do you mean if they win? Do you understand that Dems control nothing? Just what do you think we win by keeping the government "shut down"? (It's not shut down FYI it's just Feds don't get paid.) Healthcare premiums are going to skyrocket and people will be left without insurance when they can't afford the premiums. We cannot stop it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where do you see the betting odds? Personally, I want and need to get back to work. I am going to start writing my Democrat senators and ask them to please cave. It's over already. Evil won, just accept it.

Nope. Freedom isn’t free. It will only get worse if they win.

They won already

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where do you see the betting odds? Personally, I want and need to get back to work. I am going to start writing my Democrat senators and ask them to please cave. It's over already. Evil won, just accept it.

I want and need to go back to work, but I don't want them to cave. If Dems cave, we probably don't get backpay (despite the law) and the layoffs and recisions will just increase. Meanwhile, there is growing pressure on Republicans to resolve this.

There's no chance this ends before November, regardless - among other reasons, I think the White House wants a "record" duration.

News for you: layoffs and rescissions coming your way no matter what. What pressure do you think Rs are feeling? None.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Where do you see the betting odds? Personally, I want and need to get back to work. I am going to start writing my Democrat senators and ask them to please cave. It's over already. Evil won, just accept it.

The two biggest are probably

Kalshi https://kalshi.com/markets/kxgovshutlength/days-of-government-shutdown/kxgovshutlength-26jan01

Polymarket https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-government-shutdown-end-545?tid=1761011732806

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where do you see the betting odds? Personally, I want and need to get back to work. I am going to start writing my Democrat senators and ask them to please cave. It's over already. Evil won, just accept it.

Nope. Freedom isn’t free. It will only get worse if they win.

What do you mean if they win? Do you understand that Dems control nothing? Just what do you think we win by keeping the government "shut down"? (It's not shut down FYI it's just Feds don't get paid.) Healthcare premiums are going to skyrocket and people will be left without insurance when they can't afford the premiums. We cannot stop it.

If Dems control nothing then why do they need to vote to open the government?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where do you see the betting odds? Personally, I want and need to get back to work. I am going to start writing my Democrat senators and ask them to please cave. It's over already. Evil won, just accept it.

I want and need to go back to work, but I don't want them to cave. If Dems cave, we probably don't get backpay (despite the law) and the layoffs and recisions will just increase. Meanwhile, there is growing pressure on Republicans to resolve this.

There's no chance this ends before November, regardless - among other reasons, I think the White House wants a "record" duration.

but why? how's that worth anything on the negotiation table or even a justifiable excuse to not to deal?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where do you see the betting odds? Personally, I want and need to get back to work. I am going to start writing my Democrat senators and ask them to please cave. It's over already. Evil won, just accept it.

I want and need to go back to work, but I don't want them to cave. If Dems cave, we probably don't get backpay (despite the law) and the layoffs and recisions will just increase. Meanwhile, there is growing pressure on Republicans to resolve this.

There's no chance this ends before November, regardless - among other reasons, I think the White House wants a "record" duration.

News for you: layoffs and rescissions coming your way no matter what. What pressure do you think Rs are feeling? None.

DP. Trump is feeling no pressure, but the Rs in Congress are. See MTG’s comments today. You need to stop panicking. The Ds cannot give in on this.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Where do you see the betting odds? Personally, I want and need to get back to work. I am going to start writing my Democrat senators and ask them to please cave. It's over already. Evil won, just accept it.

Nope. Freedom isn’t free. It will only get worse if they win.

What do you mean if they win? Do you understand that Dems control nothing? Just what do you think we win by keeping the government "shut down"? (It's not shut down FYI it's just Feds don't get paid.) Healthcare premiums are going to skyrocket and people will be left without insurance when they can't afford the premiums. We cannot stop it.

If Dems control nothing then why do they need to vote to open the government?

Are you in middle school?

[Anonymous]

November 17th at the earliest. Christmas at the latest.