“Crammed and damned”

[Anonymous]

Bit of a depressing read in the latest edition of The Economist. Oxford Economics has found for the first time the unemployment rate of Americans aged 22 to 27, with a bachelor’s degree or more, is now consistently higher than the national average. The rising unemployment is driven by those looking for work for the first time.

In 2015, the median college graduate earned 69% more than the median high school graduate. By last year that had dropped to 50%.

American has only slightly more jobs in “legal services” than in 2006.

The conclusion seems to be we are experiencing “elite over production” And historically this never goes well.

[Anonymous]

Income is more well correlated to IQ than it is to education. Education was serving as a proxy for IQ for a couple generations, but then we started making college available to everyone (and I mean freaking everyone). So the correlation between education and IQ was diminished, and therefore the usefulness of education as a proxy for IQ, which is in turn a predictor of income, was lost.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Income is more well correlated to IQ than it is to education. Education was serving as a proxy for IQ for a couple generations, but then we started making college available to everyone (and I mean freaking everyone). So the correlation between education and IQ was diminished, and therefore the usefulness of education as a proxy for IQ, which is in turn a predictor of income, was lost.

Not quite. It's IQ, or connections, or hustle. And if you have all three, it's jackpot.

[Anonymous]

Krugman recently wrote about the same:

https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/bad-times-for-college-graduates

[Anonymous]

The top 30ish universities (ie USNews pre-2023) and 15 LACs do not show the same trends. Unemployment is very low and salaries are significantly higher than those with a HS degree.

The best schools still payoff in spades.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Income is more well correlated to IQ than it is to education. Education was serving as a proxy for IQ for a couple generations, but then we started making college available to everyone (and I mean freaking everyone). So the correlation between education and IQ was diminished, and therefore the usefulness of education as a proxy for IQ, which is in turn a predictor of income, was lost.

+1

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The top 30ish universities (ie USNews pre-2023) and 15 LACs do not show the same trends. Unemployment is very low and salaries are significantly higher than those with a HS degree.

The best schools still payoff in spades.

I’m sure the best schools are more likely to pay off but there is a discernible effect. Stanford’s business school graduates with jobs 3 months after leaving dropped from 91% in 2021 to 80% in 2024.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Bit of a depressing read in the latest edition of The Economist. Oxford Economics has found for the first time the unemployment rate of Americans aged 22 to 27, with a bachelor’s degree or more, is now consistently higher than the national average. The rising unemployment is driven by those looking for work for the first time.

In 2015, the median college graduate earned 69% more than the median high school graduate. By last year that had dropped to 50%.

American has only slightly more jobs in “legal services” than in 2006.

The conclusion seems to be we are experiencing “elite over production” And historically this never goes well.

And AI reduces the need for entry level positions.

[Anonymous]

Things are hard for everybody now, it’s our administration and lazy congress.
In a few years things will look up and get much better.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Things are hard for everybody now, it’s our administration and lazy congress.
In a few years things will look up and get much better.

This preceded AI and this administration. Employers aren’t necessarily willing to pay large premiums for college graduates.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The top 30ish universities (ie USNews pre-2023) and 15 LACs do not show the same trends. Unemployment is very low and salaries are significantly higher than those with a HS degree.

The best schools still payoff in spades.

How many of the students in a top 30'ish continue on for a masters and not trying to find employment within the ages of 22 and 27?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The top 30ish universities (ie USNews pre-2023) and 15 LACs do not show the same trends. Unemployment is very low and salaries are significantly higher than those with a HS degree.

The best schools still payoff in spades.

That might be good true for now, but these people don’t exist in a vacuum. The companies they go to work for need paying customers and as this trend continues, they’ll start to feel the hurt.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The top 30ish universities (ie USNews pre-2023) and 15 LACs do not show the same trends. Unemployment is very low and salaries are significantly higher than those with a HS degree.

The best schools still payoff in spades.

How many of the students in a top 30'ish continue on for a masters and not trying to find employment within the ages of 22 and 27?

I haven’t seen the study, but presumably they’re not including people who are studying a masters in those unemployment statistics.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The top 30ish universities (ie USNews pre-2023) and 15 LACs do not show the same trends. Unemployment is very low and salaries are significantly higher than those with a HS degree.

The best schools still payoff in spades.

How many of the students in a top 30'ish continue on for a masters and not trying to find employment within the ages of 22 and 27?

I haven’t seen the study, but presumably they’re not including people who are studying a masters in those unemployment statistics.

And many who pursue a masters wait a two to three years before first.

[Anonymous]

What’s the solution to this? Because it seems classist to limit education to the top 25 schools. Many high acceptance rate schools are top in social mobility for low income students. Do we take those opportunities away?