Trump layoffs of fed workers will fundamentally change DC

[Anonymous]

There's going to be way more unemployment. It's going to blow a hole in the city's budget because you don't pay income taxes if you dont have income. A lot of these people are probably going to leave DC for good.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/07/washington-detroit-trump-cuts-00202935

[Anonymous]

The problem is knowledge economies react differently than manufacturing/mining companies.

Silicon Valley lost nearly 1MM jobs between 2001-2010, yet managed to rebound fairly well. Even San Fran is having another moment with all the AI happening.

This is different from areas like Detroit or West Virginia where you had most of the jobs relying on manufacturing or mining where most of the workers were just HS grads.

I think the article is a bit misleading that people will move to Nashville because of a lower COL. The parts of Nashville where anyone wants to live aren't any cheaper than DC (maybe more expensive?).

Perhaps Cincinnati...but only if you are originally from there.

The article also fails to talk about how places like say Kansas City are massively reliant on Federal jobs as well and likely to feel a ton of pain.

You also have Trump claiming to want to turn DC into the best city in the world...hard to reconcile that with mass layoffs.

[Anonymous]

I agree that these layoffs will fundamentally change DC. I think the layoffs will be rescinded within weeks, as lawsuits wind their way through agencies and courts. But I think the shock of Musk taking a wrecking ball to one of the pillars of civil service, job security, will be felt for years to come. He has no idea what he has done and will never know, because soon enough he'll be off to another project, leaving DC behind. Even if he is fined for some of the illegalities he has committed, he'll just pay it and then never think of federal employees again.

This is going to stain the Republican party, too. Have they figured that out yet? Or are they still too petrified of Trump/Musk to think farther ahead than tomorrow?

[Anonymous]

DC's unemployment rate was already pretty high compared to the national average before these layoffs.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:There's going to be way more unemployment. It's going to blow a hole in the city's budget because you don't pay income taxes if you dont have income. A lot of these people are probably going to leave DC for good.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2025/02/07/washington-detroit-trump-cuts-00202935

All the easier for them to revoke home rule and submarine talk of statehood.

[Anonymous]

This is going to shrink our population by quite a bit, I bet.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:This is going to shrink our population by quite a bit, I bet.

“I think the Washington region has just become less attractive,” said Lyles Carr, a longtime leader of a top local headhunting firm. “Why stay in the high-cost Washington area if your job is less secure and your public service motivation is gone? If I’m going to move to the commercial sector, why don’t I move to Nashville or Cincinnati or somewhere lower cost?”

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I agree that these layoffs will fundamentally change DC. I think the layoffs will be rescinded within weeks, as lawsuits wind their way through agencies and courts. But I think the shock of Musk taking a wrecking ball to one of the pillars of civil service, job security, will be felt for years to come. He has no idea what he has done and will never know, because soon enough he'll be off to another project, leaving DC behind. Even if he is fined for some of the illegalities he has committed, he'll just pay it and then never think of federal employees again.

This is going to stain the Republican party, too. Have they figured that out yet? Or are they still too petrified of Trump/Musk to think farther ahead than tomorrow?

Why on earth would we want job security to be a pillar of civil service. “Work for the gov! There’s no performance standard!” has been the MO for eternity and resulted in disgusting bloat. Being better, more efficient, and less costly is actively disincentivized. The fed is best portrayed as the guy from Office Space working out of a basement storage room endlessly looking for his stapler.

[Anonymous]

I don’t think it’s going to amount to that much on a macro level (not downplaying the effect on families). I don’t think dc economy or real estate will end up that impacted.

[Anonymous]

DC has survived the Civil War, Reconstruction. WWI, the Great Depression, WWII, and the Race Riots and burning during the 1960’s. DC will survive.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I don’t think it’s going to amount to that much on a macro level (not downplaying the effect on families). I don’t think dc economy or real estate will end up that impacted.

Well, you're wrong. In December, there were 20,000 people unemployed in the District. So far, 75,000 federal workers have taken the buyout and hundreds of thousands could be laid off because they are probationary. Obviously only a fraction of them live in DC. But it wouldn't take much for the number of unemployed people to reach levels unseen in many decades.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I agree that these layoffs will fundamentally change DC. I think the layoffs will be rescinded within weeks, as lawsuits wind their way through agencies and courts. But I think the shock of Musk taking a wrecking ball to one of the pillars of civil service, job security, will be felt for years to come. He has no idea what he has done and will never know, because soon enough he'll be off to another project, leaving DC behind. Even if he is fined for some of the illegalities he has committed, he'll just pay it and then never think of federal employees again.

This is going to stain the Republican party, too. Have they figured that out yet? Or are they still too petrified of Trump/Musk to think farther ahead than tomorrow?

Why on earth would we want job security to be a pillar of civil service. “Work for the gov! There’s no performance standard!” has been the MO for eternity and resulted in disgusting bloat. Being better, more efficient, and less costly is actively disincentivized. The fed is best portrayed as the guy from Office Space working out of a basement storage room endlessly looking for his stapler.

It's going to wreck the DC economy. Get ready for a lot more empty storefronts, restaurant and bar closures and a generally more depressing city.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I agree that these layoffs will fundamentally change DC. I think the layoffs will be rescinded within weeks, as lawsuits wind their way through agencies and courts. But I think the shock of Musk taking a wrecking ball to one of the pillars of civil service, job security, will be felt for years to come. He has no idea what he has done and will never know, because soon enough he'll be off to another project, leaving DC behind. Even if he is fined for some of the illegalities he has committed, he'll just pay it and then never think of federal employees again.

This is going to stain the Republican party, too. Have they figured that out yet? Or are they still too petrified of Trump/Musk to think farther ahead than tomorrow?

Why on earth would we want job security to be a pillar of civil service. “Work for the gov! There’s no performance standard!” has been the MO for eternity and resulted in disgusting bloat. Being better, more efficient, and less costly is actively disincentivized. The fed is best portrayed as the guy from Office Space working out of a basement storage room endlessly looking for his stapler.

Employees want job security. We the public want an apolitical stable civil service, not one who comes and goes every 4 to 8 years or plays favorites with parties or constituents. Right? ... Right?

As for the guy from Office Space looking for his stapler, isn't that Elon Musk, the Schrodinger's unconfirmed Secretary of Doge?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I agree that these layoffs will fundamentally change DC. I think the layoffs will be rescinded within weeks, as lawsuits wind their way through agencies and courts. But I think the shock of Musk taking a wrecking ball to one of the pillars of civil service, job security, will be felt for years to come. He has no idea what he has done and will never know, because soon enough he'll be off to another project, leaving DC behind. Even if he is fined for some of the illegalities he has committed, he'll just pay it and then never think of federal employees again.

This is going to stain the Republican party, too. Have they figured that out yet? Or are they still too petrified of Trump/Musk to think farther ahead than tomorrow?

Why on earth would we want job security to be a pillar of civil service. “Work for the gov! There’s no performance standard!” has been the MO for eternity and resulted in disgusting bloat. Being better, more efficient, and less costly is actively disincentivized. The fed is best portrayed as the guy from Office Space working out of a basement storage room endlessly looking for his stapler.

Employees want job security. We the public want an apolitical stable civil service, not one who comes and goes every 4 to 8 years or plays favorites with parties or constituents. Right? ... Right?

As for the guy from Office Space looking for his stapler, isn't that Elon Musk, the Schrodinger's unconfirmed Secretary of Doge?

The idea that somehow the current civil service is apolitical is the problem. Your Overton Window has shifted so much that you don't even realize it.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I agree that these layoffs will fundamentally change DC. I think the layoffs will be rescinded within weeks, as lawsuits wind their way through agencies and courts. But I think the shock of Musk taking a wrecking ball to one of the pillars of civil service, job security, will be felt for years to come. He has no idea what he has done and will never know, because soon enough he'll be off to another project, leaving DC behind. Even if he is fined for some of the illegalities he has committed, he'll just pay it and then never think of federal employees again.

This is going to stain the Republican party, too. Have they figured that out yet? Or are they still too petrified of Trump/Musk to think farther ahead than tomorrow?

They're petrified that Trump will summon Meal Team Six to the Capitol again. And, knowing both he and they can get away with it, he will.