Complicated lottery question

[Anonymous]

I have long considered myself a DCPS lottery guru, but have some fairly specific questions this year that I'm finding tricky to answer.

Scenario: We are enrolled at a charter school with a rising pre-k 4 and 3rd grader for the next school year (current pre-K 3 and 2nd grader). We are in boundary for a DCPS neighborhood elementary in upper NW that we are considering transferring to, but have not decided on. We love our current school and have been there for 4 years, but we moved and it is now across town, and we are strongly weighing the benefits of being part of the local school community in a new-to-us neighborhood where we plan to raise our kids long term; and also think it is likely we will feed into the neighborhood middle and high school in the future.

We would like the maximum amount of time to make the decision on whether to transfer, and complete as much of this school year as possible before deciding.

The complication is in figuring out when we need to decide by, and if we need to participate in the lottery. The neighborhood school has pre-K 4, but not pre-K 3. Most pre-K 4 spots are filled by siblings, but not 100%. All of the remaining are filled by in-boundary families. The preference groups are 1) in bound w/sib attending, 2) in bound w/ sib offered, 3) in bound w/ equitable access, 4) in bound, 5) sib attending (out of bound), 6) sib offered (out of bound), and 7) proximity.

My question is, should I:

Option 1) lottery our younger sibling for Pre-K 4. In this scenario, we would either 1a) match and then need to enroll by the lottery match enrollment deadline of May 1, or 1b) be waitlisted. In the 1a scenario, we would need to decide on whether to enroll by the May 1 deadline, and would lose our charter spot upon doing so. If we are not ready to decide on May 1, we would lose the DCPS spot. In the 1b scenario we are in preference group #4, in boundary, and not guaranteed to get off the waitlist, but would move from preference group #4 to group #1 if/when older kid is eventually enrolled.

Option 2) wait until after the lottery and decide whether to enroll after the school year ends. In this scenario, we would enroll our rising 3rd grader and then do a post-lottery application for pre-K 4 kid once older sib is enrolled, and younger sib would start out in preference group #1 and (I think) go onto the waitlist but hopefully move off the waitlist quickly, since all other kids in group #1 have already enrolled, and the remainder of the waitlist is group #4 and beyond. So in this scenario, two things could happen: 2a) older kid is enrolled, younger kid then gets admitted from waitlist or 2b) older kid is enrolled, younger kid remains on waitlist because the waitlist has stopped moving... and then we are stuck.

We really don't want to give up our current charter spots earlier than we are ready, because once we do, we can't go back. I lean towards option 2 because it gives us more time, but worry that it is risky. I think the answer is in knowing not how much the waitlist moves (i.e. how many waitlist spots are filled), but rather how long the waitlist moves for (i.e., when are the last waitlist spots filled). I've used all of the publicly available waitlist data and can see that several waitlist spots were offered by June, and several more were offered by September; none were offered between September and October. I *think* this means that the waitlist continues to move over the summer, and we should be safe to pursue option 2 so long as we enroll older kid by July. Would welcome thoughts, reactions, considerations from lottery gurus.

[Anonymous]

What is going to happen to help you make up your mind after May 1 that can't happen before May 1? Sometimes having infinite time to make a decision isn't possible (or even necessarily desirable).

[Anonymous]

What you lose by doing 1? If you're not ready to decide, you give up that spot and can still do 2.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What is going to happen to help you make up your mind after May 1 that can't happen before May 1? Sometimes having infinite time to make a decision isn't possible (or even necessarily desirable).

I want to see how the school year shakes out for my oldest, friendship-wise and academic-wise. I also want them to be involved in the decision (not the decision maker, but part of the conversation), and think it will be easier to do this once the school year is wrapped. We've discussed a lot as a family but kiddo goes back and forth on whether they want to change, which at 2nd grade, is influenced by how good of a school day/week they've had. Finally, our current school just opened a new building for pre-K and kinder TODAY, and it comes with a lot of pros and cons (great new space, much more complicated logistics), and I want to see how it plays out over the next few months.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:What you lose by doing 1? If you're not ready to decide, you give up that spot and can still do 2.

I meant to flag this as part of my question. Can I do a post-lottery application to a school that I previously lotteried for, matched, and declined? Getting two runs at the same spot doesn't feel right.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What you lose by doing 1? If you're not ready to decide, you give up that spot and can still do 2.

I meant to flag this as part of my question. Can I do a post-lottery application to a school that I previously lotteried for, matched, and declined? Getting two runs at the same spot doesn't feel right.

Yes you can.

Don't overestimate how hard it would be to get back into your charter. Sometimes the upper grades aren't too hard even if PK3 is really hard.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is going to happen to help you make up your mind after May 1 that can't happen before May 1? Sometimes having infinite time to make a decision isn't possible (or even necessarily desirable).

I want to see how the school year shakes out for my oldest, friendship-wise and academic-wise. I also want them to be involved in the decision (not the decision maker, but part of the conversation), and think it will be easier to do this once the school year is wrapped. We've discussed a lot as a family but kiddo goes back and forth on whether they want to change, which at 2nd grade, is influenced by how good of a school day/week they've had. Finally, our current school just opened a new building for pre-K and kinder TODAY, and it comes with a lot of pros and cons (great new space, much more complicated logistics), and I want to see how it plays out over the next few months.

NP. All of these are reasons to wait until May 1st. None of them are reasons to wait longer. Lottery your youngest now, and make the call in April. You’ll have months more info on the new building and your kids social/academic place (which won’t change much in the last six weeks of school) and candidly, your 2nd grader is not going to be old enough to be truly involved in this decision for next school year.

[Anonymous]

Lottery your youngest now. There's no guarantee that you'll be able to get a prek4 slot even if your kid moves to the top of the waitlist when sibling enrolls.

[Anonymous]

You are making a family decision. This shouldn't be based on whether your second grader had a good time at recess today. That's giving way too much power to a young child.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:What is going to happen to help you make up your mind after May 1 that can't happen before May 1? Sometimes having infinite time to make a decision isn't possible (or even necessarily desirable).

I want to see how the school year shakes out for my oldest, friendship-wise and academic-wise. I also want them to be involved in the decision (not the decision maker, but part of the conversation), and think it will be easier to do this once the school year is wrapped. We've discussed a lot as a family but kiddo goes back and forth on whether they want to change, which at 2nd grade, is influenced by how good of a school day/week they've had. Finally, our current school just opened a new building for pre-K and kinder TODAY, and it comes with a lot of pros and cons (great new space, much more complicated logistics), and I want to see how it plays out over the next few months.

The way you describe your 2nd grader really highlights why they should not be involved in making this decision. Frankly, whether they had a good year friendship wise (especially if it’s been relatively fickle) should not affect your long term school plans. People will start to bail from your charter after 4th for all sorts of reasons anyway.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:You are making a family decision. This shouldn't be based on whether your second grader had a good time at recess today. That's giving way too much power to a young child.

Truly listen to these PPs. It is inappropriate to make your 7-8 year old part of this decision. I get it, we moved my DC from a beloved charter after second grade and I felt so guilty pulling them away from their friends and school community. But it was an adult decision considering what was best for our family.

Long term, yes I think you should move them as early as possible to the community they’ll be with through middle and high school. Every year it gets harder, and I wouldn’t be surprised if there were academic gaps you may not realize until you make the switch.

[Anonymous]

Oh my.

You should move both of your kids to your IB school so they can become a part of that community as early as possible. The school is probably very good, too.

Don't make decisions based on your childs current happiness. 1. Happy kids will be happy everywhere. 2. Kids can't visualize the future the way that adults can.

Do whatever you need to so that your kids have the best chance of getting into your IB (lottery for your PK 4 child to get her on the list, enroll your older child as soon as you can -for the following year - like, May. Then your younger kid will jump to the top of the list as an IB sibling.

I get it -- I've moved both my kids. They will be completely fine.

[Anonymous]

What are your middle school plans if you stay at your charter? If you like your new IB DCPS middle better, move the kids now.

I had a similar situation last year and while it was hard for my now 2nd grader to leave friends behind at our old school, I wanted her to have as many years as possible to make friends that she might carry into middle school.

For us we are now OOB and it sucks not having the community near our home. I wish we had an IB school we felt good about like you do, OP.

[Anonymous]

Are you considering option 3?

Go all in on your new neighborhood, school, and community. Enroll your oldest in the new IB school on Monday. You’ll then be able to lottery your youngest with the highest preference and give your oldest the maximum amount of time to get settled in a new cohort and make new friends.

[Anonymous]

Or how about option #4: keep your kids at the charter for PK4 and 3rd grade. At that point your younger child will be able to enroll at your IB by right so you can make the decision to switch (or not) whenever.