CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FWIW - Not trying to be a wise guy and did see the locked thread on this BUT heard from a credible medical professional in the infectious diseases space and she said she thought COVID 19 has been in the US since the late fall or early winter. She felt there has been too much travel and it’s too contagious for it to have taken long. Not sure what this means but she thinks it means that we need to wash our hands and stay smart but that we are already “in it” and need to carry on.

I actually believe this to be true. Remember all the 'we have an early flu season' and 'the vaccine is not well-matched', then 1/2 way into the season (I think when flu actually started in, in earnest) it WAS well-matched. Then there were comments about lots of 'false positives' on flu tests.

Patient 0 had it in Wuhan in November. So your timeline is wrong.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FWIW - Not trying to be a wise guy and did see the locked thread on this BUT heard from a credible medical professional in the infectious diseases space and she said she thought COVID 19 has been in the US since the late fall or early winter. She felt there has been too much travel and it’s too contagious for it to have taken long. Not sure what this means but she thinks it means that we need to wash our hands and stay smart but that we are already “in it” and need to carry on.

I actually believe this to be true. Remember all the 'we have an early flu season' and 'the vaccine is not well-matched', then 1/2 way into the season (I think when flu actually started in, in earnest) it WAS well-matched. Then there were comments about lots of 'false positives' on flu tests.

Patient 0 had it in Wuhan in November. So your timeline is wrong.

The “early flu season” in December was influenza B. I tested hundreds of patients positive for it. The “second wave” this past month or so is influenza A. Again - I have tested hundreds of patients positive for it. Neither “wave” was COVID-19. Unfortunately.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FWIW - Not trying to be a wise guy and did see the locked thread on this BUT heard from a credible medical professional in the infectious diseases space and she said she thought COVID 19 has been in the US since the late fall or early winter. She felt there has been too much travel and it’s too contagious for it to have taken long. Not sure what this means but she thinks it means that we need to wash our hands and stay smart but that we are already “in it” and need to carry on.

I actually believe this to be true. Remember all the 'we have an early flu season' and 'the vaccine is not well-matched', then 1/2 way into the season (I think when flu actually started in, in earnest) it WAS well-matched. Then there were comments about lots of 'false positives' on flu tests.

Patient 0 had it in Wuhan in November. So your timeline is wrong.

"US since the late fall or early winter" can mean December/January. With the amount of travel it means it's very feasible for the virus to have spread to the US as early as December of Patient 0 had it in November. There may have been regular deaths from flu among the very elderly that were seen as flu, not Coronavirus.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FWIW - Not trying to be a wise guy and did see the locked thread on this BUT heard from a credible medical professional in the infectious diseases space and she said she thought COVID 19 has been in the US since the late fall or early winter. She felt there has been too much travel and it’s too contagious for it to have taken long. Not sure what this means but she thinks it means that we need to wash our hands and stay smart but that we are already “in it” and need to carry on.

I actually believe this to be true. Remember all the 'we have an early flu season' and 'the vaccine is not well-matched', then 1/2 way into the season (I think when flu actually started in, in earnest) it WAS well-matched. Then there were comments about lots of 'false positives' on flu tests.

Patient 0 had it in Wuhan in November. So your timeline is wrong.

The “early flu season” in December was influenza B. I tested hundreds of patients positive for it. The “second wave” this past month or so is influenza A. Again - I have tested hundreds of patients positive for it. Neither “wave” was COVID-19. Unfortunately.

Oh- to add- I do remember a bunch of patients with flu like illness (fever, fatigue, cough) who were all testing negative for flu around October, and that seemed to last 3-4 weeks in my clinic (the wave of patients presenting, not the illness itself). But this was before even one person in China had it, so very unlikely.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FWIW - Not trying to be a wise guy and did see the locked thread on this BUT heard from a credible medical professional in the infectious diseases space and she said she thought COVID 19 has been in the US since the late fall or early winter. She felt there has been too much travel and it’s too contagious for it to have taken long. Not sure what this means but she thinks it means that we need to wash our hands and stay smart but that we are already “in it” and need to carry on.

I actually believe this to be true. Remember all the 'we have an early flu season' and 'the vaccine is not well-matched', then 1/2 way into the season (I think when flu actually started in, in earnest) it WAS well-matched. Then there were comments about lots of 'false positives' on flu tests.

That’s certainly possible but how do you explain that other countries’ hospitals and ICUs have been overwhelmed by this virus whereas our hospitals are business as usual?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I can tell that people feel very passionately about this issue on both sides of the coin (relax, no risk vs. hunker down as much as possible). I have started taking some steps to prepare and cut back exposure to large crowds, but also haven't cancelled our spring break travel plans. So, I have a question for epidemiologists and others who have spent more time reading up on COVID-19. (And I really want to ask a question, not start a fight.) Should I be viewing this differently than, say, an aggressive flu year when we know that the vaccine was not well matched?

This is worse than a bad flu year. Unless and until we get more data that lowers the case fatality rate of COVID-19 (estimated at 1-2%), this outbreak/pandemic will be far worse than a bad flu year with a mismatched vaccine. Look at the 2009H1N1 influenza pandemic. No vaccine initially and a case fatality rate of .01-.08. I'm hoping once we really start testing we'll see a huge portion of mild/moderate cases bringing down the fatality rate, but we just haven't seen that yet.

I'm not high risk, but I'm not traveling if I don't absolutely have to. My husband works remote already but I've asked him to consider actually staying home vs going to coffee shops. I'm mostly worried about my parents who are elderly, one with asthma. Schools the next town over from us closed today and one will be closed for two weeks. I'm not mad at it. My child is still in school but I'm anticipating more closures, mostly because now there's a precedent in our area.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FWIW - Not trying to be a wise guy and did see the locked thread on this BUT heard from a credible medical professional in the infectious diseases space and she said she thought COVID 19 has been in the US since the late fall or early winter. She felt there has been too much travel and it’s too contagious for it to have taken long. Not sure what this means but she thinks it means that we need to wash our hands and stay smart but that we are already “in it” and need to carry on.

I actually believe this to be true. Remember all the 'we have an early flu season' and 'the vaccine is not well-matched', then 1/2 way into the season (I think when flu actually started in, in earnest) it WAS well-matched. Then there were comments about lots of 'false positives' on flu tests.

That’s certainly possible but how do you explain that other countries’ hospitals and ICUs have been overwhelmed by this virus whereas our hospitals are business as usual?

In terms of countries it's Italy and Iran that seem to show signs of being overwhelmed. The other EU countries (which can have even higher numbers of positive cases than the US) aren't showing signs of being overwhelmed. Yet. Nor was South Korea.

We aren't seeing a mass rise of critical care at hospitals. Yet. I take some comfort in that there's been time for it to appear in Seattle and NYC, where the virus first recorded its appearance in the US, but even there it hasn't become pandemic. Yet. Most of the WA state deaths are from the same nursing home, which is very unfortunate. Based on what I'm seeing so far is that we'll end up with a situation similar to South Korea. Rising numbers of infections but low hospitalization and death rates. And South Korea is starting to express hope that the virus has peaked there.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can tell that people feel very passionately about this issue on both sides of the coin (relax, no risk vs. hunker down as much as possible). I have started taking some steps to prepare and cut back exposure to large crowds, but also haven't cancelled our spring break travel plans. So, I have a question for epidemiologists and others who have spent more time reading up on COVID-19. (And I really want to ask a question, not start a fight.) Should I be viewing this differently than, say, an aggressive flu year when we know that the vaccine was not well matched?

This is worse than a bad flu year. Unless and until we get more data that lowers the case fatality rate of COVID-19 (estimated at 1-2%), this outbreak/pandemic will be far worse than a bad flu year with a mismatched vaccine. Look at the 2009H1N1 influenza pandemic. No vaccine initially and a case fatality rate of .01-.08. I'm hoping once we really start testing we'll see a huge portion of mild/moderate cases bringing down the fatality rate, but we just haven't seen that yet.

I'm not high risk, but I'm not traveling if I don't absolutely have to. My husband works remote already but I've asked him to consider actually staying home vs going to coffee shops. I'm mostly worried about my parents who are elderly, one with asthma. Schools the next town over from us closed today and one will be closed for two weeks. I'm not mad at it. My child is still in school but I'm anticipating more closures, mostly because now there's a precedent in our area.

South Korea, which probably has the most aggressive and large testing outside China is showing a case fatality rate below 1%. Somewhere between .06-.07.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FWIW - Not trying to be a wise guy and did see the locked thread on this BUT heard from a credible medical professional in the infectious diseases space and she said she thought COVID 19 has been in the US since the late fall or early winter. She felt there has been too much travel and it’s too contagious for it to have taken long. Not sure what this means but she thinks it means that we need to wash our hands and stay smart but that we are already “in it” and need to carry on.

I actually believe this to be true. Remember all the 'we have an early flu season' and 'the vaccine is not well-matched', then 1/2 way into the season (I think when flu actually started in, in earnest) it WAS well-matched. Then there were comments about lots of 'false positives' on flu tests.

That’s certainly possible but how do you explain that other countries’ hospitals and ICUs have been overwhelmed by this virus whereas our hospitals are business as usual?

In terms of countries it's Italy and Iran that seem to show signs of being overwhelmed. The other EU countries (which can have even higher numbers of positive cases than the US) aren't showing signs of being overwhelmed. Yet. Nor was South Korea.

We aren't seeing a mass rise of critical care at hospitals. Yet. I take some comfort in that there's been time for it to appear in Seattle and NYC, where the virus first recorded its appearance in the US, but even there it hasn't become pandemic. Yet. Most of the WA state deaths are from the same nursing home, which is very unfortunate. Based on what I'm seeing so far is that we'll end up with a situation similar to South Korea. Rising numbers of infections but low hospitalization and death rates. And South Korea is starting to express hope that the virus has peaked there.

Hospitals in Italy and South Korea have been overwhelmed. Not sure why you think it would be different in the US.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/07/813191526/in-daegu-coronavirus-leaves-city-a-shadow-of-its-usual-bustling-self

https://www.wsj.com/articles/not-enough-doctors-in-daegu-as-virus-cases-rise-south-koreas-response-is-criticized-11582547600

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-southkorea/thousands-wait-for-hospital-beds-in-south-korea-as-coronavirus-cases-surge-idUKKBN20R05F?feedType=RSS&feedName=topNews

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can tell that people feel very passionately about this issue on both sides of the coin (relax, no risk vs. hunker down as much as possible). I have started taking some steps to prepare and cut back exposure to large crowds, but also haven't cancelled our spring break travel plans. So, I have a question for epidemiologists and others who have spent more time reading up on COVID-19. (And I really want to ask a question, not start a fight.) Should I be viewing this differently than, say, an aggressive flu year when we know that the vaccine was not well matched?

This is worse than a bad flu year. Unless and until we get more data that lowers the case fatality rate of COVID-19 (estimated at 1-2%), this outbreak/pandemic will be far worse than a bad flu year with a mismatched vaccine. Look at the 2009H1N1 influenza pandemic. No vaccine initially and a case fatality rate of .01-.08. I'm hoping once we really start testing we'll see a huge portion of mild/moderate cases bringing down the fatality rate, but we just haven't seen that yet.

I'm not high risk, but I'm not traveling if I don't absolutely have to. My husband works remote already but I've asked him to consider actually staying home vs going to coffee shops. I'm mostly worried about my parents who are elderly, one with asthma. Schools the next town over from us closed today and one will be closed for two weeks. I'm not mad at it. My child is still in school but I'm anticipating more closures, mostly because now there's a precedent in our area.

I feel like the obsession with the case fatality rate and "mild" cases is misplaced. If a lot of people get this, and it has a 1% fatality rate, then it's going to be terrible, regardless of whether many of those people have mild cases. It's the absolute numbers that matter here.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chinese researchers now feel the virus can travel as far as 4.5 meters in a constrained environment like a bus.

Fascinating story about how, using closed circuit cameras on a long distance bus, Chinese researchers tracked 7 people who got infected from one carrier riding the bus.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

"The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists."



I read elsewhere

Seriously how did the person get to the back of the bus without passing by the other people in the bus?

Touching seats along the way I bet....

I'm guessing he coughed while walking by that cluster of seats toward the front where four people were infected.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FWIW - Not trying to be a wise guy and did see the locked thread on this BUT heard from a credible medical professional in the infectious diseases space and she said she thought COVID 19 has been in the US since the late fall or early winter. She felt there has been too much travel and it’s too contagious for it to have taken long. Not sure what this means but she thinks it means that we need to wash our hands and stay smart but that we are already “in it” and need to carry on.

I actually believe this to be true. Remember all the 'we have an early flu season' and 'the vaccine is not well-matched', then 1/2 way into the season (I think when flu actually started in, in earnest) it WAS well-matched. Then there were comments about lots of 'false positives' on flu tests.

Patient 0 had it in Wuhan in November. So your timeline is wrong.

November is late fall/early winter

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FWIW - Not trying to be a wise guy and did see the locked thread on this BUT heard from a credible medical professional in the infectious diseases space and she said she thought COVID 19 has been in the US since the late fall or early winter. She felt there has been too much travel and it’s too contagious for it to have taken long. Not sure what this means but she thinks it means that we need to wash our hands and stay smart but that we are already “in it” and need to carry on.

I actually believe this to be true. Remember all the 'we have an early flu season' and 'the vaccine is not well-matched', then 1/2 way into the season (I think when flu actually started in, in earnest) it WAS well-matched. Then there were comments about lots of 'false positives' on flu tests.

Patient 0 had it in Wuhan in November. So your timeline is wrong.

The “early flu season” in December was influenza B. I tested hundreds of patients positive for it. The “second wave” this past month or so is influenza A. Again - I have tested hundreds of patients positive for it. Neither “wave” was COVID-19. Unfortunately.

Well that's a shame!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chinese researchers now feel the virus can travel as far as 4.5 meters in a constrained environment like a bus.

Fascinating story about how, using closed circuit cameras on a long distance bus, Chinese researchers tracked 7 people who got infected from one carrier riding the bus.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

"The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists."



I read elsewhere

Seriously how did the person get to the back of the bus without passing by the other people in the bus?

Touching seats along the way I bet....

I'm guessing he coughed while walking by that cluster of seats toward the front where four people were infected.

How do they know so precisely when the pink person was infected?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:FWIW - Not trying to be a wise guy and did see the locked thread on this BUT heard from a credible medical professional in the infectious diseases space and she said she thought COVID 19 has been in the US since the late fall or early winter. She felt there has been too much travel and it’s too contagious for it to have taken long. Not sure what this means but she thinks it means that we need to wash our hands and stay smart but that we are already “in it” and need to carry on.

I actually believe this to be true. Remember all the 'we have an early flu season' and 'the vaccine is not well-matched', then 1/2 way into the season (I think when flu actually started in, in earnest) it WAS well-matched. Then there were comments about lots of 'false positives' on flu tests.

Patient 0 had it in Wuhan in November. So your timeline is wrong.

The “early flu season” in December was influenza B. I tested hundreds of patients positive for it. The “second wave” this past month or so is influenza A. Again - I have tested hundreds of patients positive for it. Neither “wave” was COVID-19. Unfortunately.

Wow. Impressive that you were able to test them all for COVID-19.