CORONAVIRUS/COVID-19 NEW MEGA THREAD

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can tell that people feel very passionately about this issue on both sides of the coin (relax, no risk vs. hunker down as much as possible). I have started taking some steps to prepare and cut back exposure to large crowds, but also haven't cancelled our spring break travel plans. So, I have a question for epidemiologists and others who have spent more time reading up on COVID-19. (And I really want to ask a question, not start a fight.) Should I be viewing this differently than, say, an aggressive flu year when we know that the vaccine was not well matched?

Yes. If you catch it over spring break, there will be enough tests then that you will be voluntarily or involuntarily quarantined. Think about what that would mean.

Another yes because if you pass "this flu" onto the wrong person, they die.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we started exporting our own cases

Confirmed COVID-19 case in Australia with ties to Aspen community

https://kdvr.com/news/coronavirus/confirmed-covid-19-case-in-australia-with-ties-to-aspen-community/

Australian visitor in Aspen confirmed to have coronavirus after returning home


A woman visiting Aspen from Australia has been confirmed to have COVID-19, also known as coronavirus, the Colorado Department of Health and Environment said Sunday in an update.

“We are aware of a confirmed COVID-19 case in Australia with ties to the Aspen community. One woman in her 20s who was visiting Aspen returned home to Australia earlier this week, where she tested positive for COVID-19,”

https://www.aspentimes.com/news/australian-visitor-in-aspen-confirmed-to-have-coronavirus-after-returning-home/

No one suspects she picked up virus in airport/airplane rather than contracting it in Aspen?

Of course she did!! It's a no-brainer!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Looks like we started exporting our own cases

Confirmed COVID-19 case in Australia with ties to Aspen community

Canada has 2 cases that came from the US. One from Colorado, one from DC. They also have one case from France and one case from Germany.

He left DC on March 3rd, She left Aspen on March 2.

Canada has 3 more Germany cases today.

One of those cases in Canada was from a person on a flight from DC to Toronto. It was confirmed this morning.

CPAC: Feb. 27-March 2

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can tell that people feel very passionately about this issue on both sides of the coin (relax, no risk vs. hunker down as much as possible). I have started taking some steps to prepare and cut back exposure to large crowds, but also haven't cancelled our spring break travel plans. So, I have a question for epidemiologists and others who have spent more time reading up on COVID-19. (And I really want to ask a question, not start a fight.) Should I be viewing this differently than, say, an aggressive flu year when we know that the vaccine was not well matched?

Yes. If you catch it over spring break, there will be enough tests then that you will be voluntarily or involuntarily quarantined. Think about what that would mean.

Another yes because if you pass "this flu" onto the wrong person, they die.

But isn't that true with influenza also?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Can somebody please crash course me on the coronavirus logic?

So the virus is highly contagious. - mainly through contact. Plane seats? Airports? Probably
But if there are cases in the community
Don’t worry. It is not going to spread. - if you limit contact and handwash/sanitize, probably not
It only spreads in Korea, Iran in Italy. - Most Korean cases were from that sect. Italy can be quite ... um... unclean. Iran? Nuff said
Check what country you are in.

2+2 = potato

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can tell that people feel very passionately about this issue on both sides of the coin (relax, no risk vs. hunker down as much as possible). I have started taking some steps to prepare and cut back exposure to large crowds, but also haven't cancelled our spring break travel plans. So, I have a question for epidemiologists and others who have spent more time reading up on COVID-19. (And I really want to ask a question, not start a fight.) Should I be viewing this differently than, say, an aggressive flu year when we know that the vaccine was not well matched?

Yes. If you catch it over spring break, there will be enough tests then that you will be voluntarily or involuntarily quarantined. Think about what that would mean.

Another yes because if you pass "this flu" onto the wrong person, they die.

But isn't that true with influenza also?

No - we have years of data on influenza and have a vaccine ready for multiple strains. SARS-COV2 is novel and it's mutating.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can tell that people feel very passionately about this issue on both sides of the coin (relax, no risk vs. hunker down as much as possible). I have started taking some steps to prepare and cut back exposure to large crowds, but also haven't cancelled our spring break travel plans. So, I have a question for epidemiologists and others who have spent more time reading up on COVID-19. (And I really want to ask a question, not start a fight.) Should I be viewing this differently than, say, an aggressive flu year when we know that the vaccine was not well matched?

Yes. If you catch it over spring break, there will be enough tests then that you will be voluntarily or involuntarily quarantined. Think about what that would mean.

Another yes because if you pass "this flu" onto the wrong person, they die.

But isn't that true with influenza also?

Yes but this is different. Hospitals will be overwhelmed very very quickly. We are wasting time!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can tell that people feel very passionately about this issue on both sides of the coin (relax, no risk vs. hunker down as much as possible). I have started taking some steps to prepare and cut back exposure to large crowds, but also haven't cancelled our spring break travel plans. So, I have a question for epidemiologists and others who have spent more time reading up on COVID-19. (And I really want to ask a question, not start a fight.) Should I be viewing this differently than, say, an aggressive flu year when we know that the vaccine was not well matched?

Yes. If you catch it over spring break, there will be enough tests then that you will be voluntarily or involuntarily quarantined. Think about what that would mean.

Another yes because if you pass "this flu" onto the wrong person, they die.

But isn't that true with influenza also?

No - we have years of data on influenza and have a vaccine ready for multiple strains. SARS-COV2 is novel and it's mutating.

Oh and I forgot to say most of us have antibodies for influenza as one time or another we got it in our lifetime - no antibodies for this one.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chinese researchers now feel the virus can travel as far as 4.5 meters in a constrained environment like a bus.

Fascinating story about how, using closed circuit cameras on a long distance bus, Chinese researchers tracked 7 people who got infected from one carrier riding the bus.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

"The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists."



I read elsewhere

Seriously how did the person get to the back of the bus without passing by the other people in the bus?

Touching seats along the way I bet....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I can tell that people feel very passionately about this issue on both sides of the coin (relax, no risk vs. hunker down as much as possible). I have started taking some steps to prepare and cut back exposure to large crowds, but also haven't cancelled our spring break travel plans. So, I have a question for epidemiologists and others who have spent more time reading up on COVID-19. (And I really want to ask a question, not start a fight.) Should I be viewing this differently than, say, an aggressive flu year when we know that the vaccine was not well matched?

Yes. If you catch it over spring break, there will be enough tests then that you will be voluntarily or involuntarily quarantined. Think about what that would mean.

Another yes because if you pass "this flu" onto the wrong person, they die.

But isn't that true with influenza also?

Yes but this is different. Hospitals will be overwhelmed very very quickly. We are wasting time!

Average time for hospitalization for flu = 5.7 days. Average for coronavirus for those discharged alive = 10 days. With more information forthcoming that may change but it’s what we have to go on how. I’ll post links in a bit.

[Anonymous]

People should have those 3M masks and be wearing them to stop the spread. That is what Chinese citizens did. We have none thanks to our government. They were blocked in other countries months ago.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:FWIW - Not trying to be a wise guy and did see the locked thread on this BUT heard from a credible medical professional in the infectious diseases space and she said she thought COVID 19 has been in the US since the late fall or early winter. She felt there has been too much travel and it’s too contagious for it to have taken long. Not sure what this means but she thinks it means that we need to wash our hands and stay smart but that we are already “in it” and need to carry on.

This makes sense. The virus first popped up on record in Seattle and it's been a few weeks now, which means it was around for a couple weeks before its discovery, but there's no Wuhan style mass epidemic in Seattle, or elsewhere in the US, with critical numbers of people seeing hospital care. We have rising numbers of positive cases but very few, relatively speaking, deaths, especially as the infected numbers only capture a fraction of the true infected population.

I think a lot of people are seeing Italy as what's going to happen to the US and getting spooked by it, but then I look at South Korea and the opposite is happening. The Korean officials think the virus has peaked, their death numbers are quite low, sub 1% of the identified positive cases, and even that's only 7300 positive cases out of 51 million people in the country.

The next two weeks till tell us everything we need to know, methinks.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:FWIW - Not trying to be a wise guy and did see the locked thread on this BUT heard from a credible medical professional in the infectious diseases space and she said she thought COVID 19 has been in the US since the late fall or early winter. She felt there has been too much travel and it’s too contagious for it to have taken long. Not sure what this means but she thinks it means that we need to wash our hands and stay smart but that we are already “in it” and need to carry on.

I actually believe this to be true. Remember all the 'we have an early flu season' and 'the vaccine is not well-matched', then 1/2 way into the season (I think when flu actually started in, in earnest) it WAS well-matched. Then there were comments about lots of 'false positives' on flu tests.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chinese researchers now feel the virus can travel as far as 4.5 meters in a constrained environment like a bus.

Fascinating story about how, using closed circuit cameras on a long distance bus, Chinese researchers tracked 7 people who got infected from one carrier riding the bus.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

"The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists."



I read elsewhere

Seriously how did the person get to the back of the bus without passing by the other people in the bus?

Isn't it also possible that the pink person who tested positive immediately already had the virus before getting on the bus?

Touching seats along the way I bet....

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Chinese researchers now feel the virus can travel as far as 4.5 meters in a constrained environment like a bus.

Fascinating story about how, using closed circuit cameras on a long distance bus, Chinese researchers tracked 7 people who got infected from one carrier riding the bus.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3074351/coronavirus-can-travel-twice-far-official-safe-distance-and-stay

"The coronavirus that causes Covid-19 can linger in the air for at least 30 minutes and travel up to 4.5 metres – further than the “safe distance” advised by health authorities around the world, according to a study by a team of Chinese government epidemiologists."



I read elsewhere

Seriously how did the person get to the back of the bus without passing by the other people in the bus?

Touching seats along the way I bet....

Because he was there before the infected person got on the bus.