How much can a waitlist move in Sept/Oct?

[Anonymous]

I have looked at the data on the Tableau site..

I guess it is case by base basis. Of course.

But DCUM having a great historical mind can help!

We are #14 on a waitlist for a DCPS PK3 school. Does not look like we will get in.

But then I was looking at the site data and one stood out (this school example is real and happened to our neighbor). They were in the teens on CapCity PCS PK3 in 2022/2023 SY lottery. If you look, no offers were made and then BOOM -- 25 made in October and her son got called into a spot.

Is there a chance the DCPS school we are hoping for has this? Did that CapCity example mean they opened up a new classroom maybe? New teacher?

Long way of saying I dont think we get in with a teens number but maybe we will if the school adds a classroom? Now way 13 people change their minds now.

[Anonymous]

My guess is that means that CapCity had maybe one spot come open ( a family moved, or realized their kid wasn't ready for pk3 and had the flexibility to keep them home for another year) and then the school had to call 25 families before they found someone who was willing to move their kid in October. Sometimes people realize that they are very happy with a school that was lower on their list and don't want to go through the process of starting again at a new school. I heard once about a set of twins withdrawing from pk3 (think the family moved?) so they suddenly had two spots open in late september when that usually does not happen at all. I think it's much more likely that 13 people say no than a school opens an additional class (unless it's for in boundary students they have to serve)

[Anonymous]

but I'm not sure you can predict which schools/classes will have those one or two kids withdraw and then need to make a lot of offers to backfill

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:My guess is that means that CapCity had maybe one spot come open ( a family moved, or realized their kid wasn't ready for pk3 and had the flexibility to keep them home for another year) and then the school had to call 25 families before they found someone who was willing to move their kid in October. Sometimes people realize that they are very happy with a school that was lower on their list and don't want to go through the process of starting again at a new school. I heard once about a set of twins withdrawing from pk3 (think the family moved?) so they suddenly had two spots open in late september when that usually does not happen at all. I think it's much more likely that 13 people say no than a school opens an additional class (unless it's for in boundary students they have to serve)

I didn't think of this. With that large number I assumed an entire classroom or more. To your point, yes, wow - maybe it took that many parents to say no to a spot.

Well that rains on my parade even more! haha

[Anonymous]

A waitlist can move quite a bit. Cap City isn't such an irresistible school that everyone accepts. And there's sort of a domino effect where kids who go to Cap City might get an offer elsewhere and move. Or it could be another classroom. Other charter waitlists might behave differently, depending on how popular the school is.

But that doesn't mean that a DCPS waitlist will behave the same way. First of all, you probably have a lot of IB kids and siblings (and kids who are both those things) enrolled in a desirable or okayish DCPS PK3 class. Those people are less likely to leave the school (creating a vacancy) because it's near their house and their other kid goes there. At either kind of school you'll have siblings jumping you on the list, but in DCPS a lot of the older siblings will be by-right-- they don't need any waitlist movement to enroll and to confer sibling preference on their PK3 sibling. The experience people have with charter waitlists isn't really generalizable to DCPS PK3 waitlists.

Now, that's not to say you won't get in, just that it's different.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:My guess is that means that CapCity had maybe one spot come open ( a family moved, or realized their kid wasn't ready for pk3 and had the flexibility to keep them home for another year) and then the school had to call 25 families before they found someone who was willing to move their kid in October. Sometimes people realize that they are very happy with a school that was lower on their list and don't want to go through the process of starting again at a new school. I heard once about a set of twins withdrawing from pk3 (think the family moved?) so they suddenly had two spots open in late september when that usually does not happen at all. I think it's much more likely that 13 people say no than a school opens an additional class (unless it's for in boundary students they have to serve)

I didn't think of this. With that large number I assumed an entire classroom or more. To your point, yes, wow - maybe it took that many parents to say no to a spot.

Well that rains on my parade even more! haha

You can look in the OSSE enrollment spreadsheets if you really want to know. It does happen.

[Anonymous]

Thanks for such quick replies. This is why I posted it.

Being a non-charter, I think you are right. The waitlist will move so much differently than a charter school based on IB preference alone.

Oh well!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Thanks for such quick replies. This is why I posted it.

Being a non-charter, I think you are right. The waitlist will move so much differently than a charter school based on IB preference alone.

Oh well!

You are welcome! There's a lot of expertise here if you ask politely and don't mind wading through the crazy.