Why DC is over

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you don’t leave pre-kids, wait until your kids are in one of the 2000 student cut-throat schools*50 of them in the dmv.
Stressful and total crapshoot applying to colleges around here.

But have fun with all the sports and arts cuts. Only <10% will make the cut! What a place to live.

Well, if you make the <10% in podunk high school, flyover country, it still may not cut it either for an elite college.

This isn’t 100% accurate. Elite schools also care about geographic diversity so it can actually be easier to get in from a state where there are less applicants.

I was the shining star of a podunk high school, and got into elite Ivy. And barely survived freshman year bc I was in way over my head. I would rather my kids go to excellent high school, be middle of the pack, and then do stellar at VT or JMU.

[phone]

So you'd rather your kids have VT/JMU degrees over an Ivy degree?

Mildly curious.

I grew up here. I went to Brown. My DH went to UVA. He has done much better that me. He has a huge alumni network and that has benefited him very well. I would 100% rather my kids go to UVA or VT than an Ivy. I see no ROI there, other than the fact that you can impress douchebags at cocktail parties.

Well first of all UVA is much better than VT/JMU. I went to an ivy and would be ecstatic if my DC went to an ivy or UVA. That said there are entire industries that you basically have no shot of entering if you don’t go to an ivy or a handful of other schools. You aren’t going to be doing management consulting or investment banking straight out of undergrad at VT or JMU.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you don’t leave pre-kids, wait until your kids are in one of the 2000 student cut-throat schools*50 of them in the dmv.
Stressful and total crapshoot applying to colleges around here.

But have fun with all the sports and arts cuts. Only <10% will make the cut! What a place to live.

Well, if you make the <10% in podunk high school, flyover country, it still may not cut it either for an elite college.

This isn’t 100% accurate. Elite schools also care about geographic diversity so it can actually be easier to get in from a state where there are less applicants.

I was the shining star of a podunk high school, and got into elite Ivy. And barely survived freshman year bc I was in way over my head. I would rather my kids go to excellent high school, be middle of the pack, and then do stellar at VT or JMU.

[phone]

So you'd rather your kids have VT/JMU degrees over an Ivy degree?

Mildly curious.

I grew up here. I went to Brown. My DH went to UVA. He has done much better that me. He has a huge alumni network and that has benefited him very well. I would 100% rather my kids go to UVA or VT than an Ivy. I see no ROI there, other than the fact that you can impress douchebags at cocktail parties.

Well first of all UVA is much better than VT/JMU. I went to an ivy and would be ecstatic if my DC went to an ivy or UVA. That said there are entire industries that you basically have no shot of entering if you don’t go to an ivy or a handful of other schools. You aren’t going to be doing management consulting or investment banking straight out of undergrad at VT or JMU.

If you go to a podunk high school, when you interview for those jobs after your ivy you won’t get hired b/c you won’t fit the culture. They can smell country bumpkin over lunch.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Much of the discussion about millennial migration tends to focus on high-cost, dense urban regions such as those that dominate New York, Massachusetts and, of course, California. Yet the IRS data tells us a very different story about migrants aged 26 to 34. Here it’s Texas in the lead, and by a wide margin, followed by Oregon, Colorado, Washington, Nevada, North Dakota, South Carolina, Maine, Florida and New Hampshire. Once again New York and Illinois stand out as the biggest losers in this age category.

Perhaps more important for the immediate future may be the migration of people at the peak of their careers, those aged 35 to 54. These are also the age cohorts most likely to be raising children. The top four are the same in both cohorts. Among the 35 to 44 age group, it’s Texas, followed by Florida, South Carolina and North Dakota. Among the 45 to 54 cohort, Texas, followed by South Carolina, Florida and North Dakota.

Perhaps with the influx of educated high-earners, these states will stop voting against their own interests and turn blue.

Texan here. We've seen a massive influx of Californians to our state...who proceed vote for the exact same policies/types of politicians that caused them to flee CA in the first place.

I don't get it.

Consolidation of power by plutocrats is damaging anywhere. CA folks were long an agricultural colony, hence their water woes. Lately Silicon Valley has mushroomed, especially FANG and top VCs, rendering Bay Area land prohibitively expensive. Given that TX is already largely in the control of ranchers and petroleum, I’d be dreading Cali folk making it even worse.

[Anonymous]

Young people are too poor.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you don’t leave pre-kids, wait until your kids are in one of the 2000 student cut-throat schools*50 of them in the dmv.
Stressful and total crapshoot applying to colleges around here.

But have fun with all the sports and arts cuts. Only <10% will make the cut! What a place to live.

Well, if you make the <10% in podunk high school, flyover country, it still may not cut it either for an elite college.

This isn’t 100% accurate. Elite schools also care about geographic diversity so it can actually be easier to get in from a state where there are less applicants.

I was the shining star of a podunk high school, and got into elite Ivy. And barely survived freshman year bc I was in way over my head. I would rather my kids go to excellent high school, be middle of the pack, and then do stellar at VT or JMU.

[phone]

So you'd rather your kids have VT/JMU degrees over an Ivy degree?

Mildly curious.

I grew up here. I went to Brown. My DH went to UVA. He has done much better that me. He has a huge alumni network and that has benefited him very well. I would 100% rather my kids go to UVA or VT than an Ivy. I see no ROI there, other than the fact that you can impress douchebags at cocktail parties.

Well first of all UVA is much better than VT/JMU. I went to an ivy and would be ecstatic if my DC went to an ivy or UVA. That said there are entire industries that you basically have no shot of entering if you don’t go to an ivy or a handful of other schools. You aren’t going to be doing management consulting or investment banking straight out of undergrad at VT or JMU.

No but you can make good money with a computer science and engineering degree out of VT.

[Anonymous]

These numbers disturb me. We hope to sell our DC home early in the new year.

https://dcrealtors.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2018/11/October-2018.pdf

"- Closed sales. The 742 October sales represented a 10.7 percent decrease versus last year and above the
October five-year average of 718. The 7,697 cumulative year-to-date sales are .8 percent lessthan the number
sold through October of last year.

- Contract activity. There was a 10.7 percent drop in contract activity compared to last October. The 777 overall
new pending sales fell below the five-year October average by 6.0 percent.

- Listing activity. The number of new listings increased 8.1 percent compared to last October. The 1,263 new
listings are significantly above the five-year October average of 1,108.

- Inventory. The 1,816 active listings at month’s end are 13.9 percent more than at the same point last year.

- Months of Supply. Supply remains scarce relative to demand, continuing to drive a strong seller’s market in
the District. The 1,816 active listings represent just 2.5 months of supply.

- Prices. October’s median sales price was $602,250, up 9.5 percent from last year’s median and ranks as the
highest October level on record.

- Sales Price to Original List Price Ratios (SP to OLP). Half the sellers received 100.0 percent of original list price
or less, the same as last October."

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you don’t leave pre-kids, wait until your kids are in one of the 2000 student cut-throat schools*50 of them in the dmv.
Stressful and total crapshoot applying to colleges around here.

But have fun with all the sports and arts cuts. Only <10% will make the cut! What a place to live.

Well, if you make the <10% in podunk high school, flyover country, it still may not cut it either for an elite college.

This isn’t 100% accurate. Elite schools also care about geographic diversity so it can actually be easier to get in from a state where there are less applicants.

I was the shining star of a podunk high school, and got into elite Ivy. And barely survived freshman year bc I was in way over my head. I would rather my kids go to excellent high school, be middle of the pack, and then do stellar at VT or JMU.

[phone]

So you'd rather your kids have VT/JMU degrees over an Ivy degree?

Mildly curious.

I grew up here. I went to Brown. My DH went to UVA. He has done much better that me. He has a huge alumni network and that has benefited him very well. I would 100% rather my kids go to UVA or VT than an Ivy. I see no ROI there, other than the fact that you can impress douchebags at cocktail parties.

Well first of all UVA is much better than VT/JMU. I went to an ivy and would be ecstatic if my DC went to an ivy or UVA. That said there are entire industries that you basically have no shot of entering if you don’t go to an ivy or a handful of other schools. You aren’t going to be doing management consulting or investment banking straight out of undergrad at VT or JMU.

No but you can make good money with a computer science and engineering degree out of VT.

It's an okay engineering school and mediocre for CS. The cap on these professions is also low over the long haul.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:These numbers disturb me. We hope to sell our DC home early in the new year.

https://dcrealtors.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2018/11/October-2018.pdf

"- Closed sales. The 742 October sales represented a 10.7 percent decrease versus last year and above the
October five-year average of 718. The 7,697 cumulative year-to-date sales are .8 percent lessthan the number
sold through October of last year.

- Contract activity. There was a 10.7 percent drop in contract activity compared to last October. The 777 overall
new pending sales fell below the five-year October average by 6.0 percent.

- Listing activity. The number of new listings increased 8.1 percent compared to last October. The 1,263 new
listings are significantly above the five-year October average of 1,108.

- Inventory. The 1,816 active listings at month’s end are 13.9 percent more than at the same point last year.

- Months of Supply. Supply remains scarce relative to demand, continuing to drive a strong seller’s market in
the District. The 1,816 active listings represent just 2.5 months of supply.

- Prices. October’s median sales price was $602,250, up 9.5 percent from last year’s median and ranks as the
highest October level on record.

- Sales Price to Original List Price Ratios (SP to OLP). Half the sellers received 100.0 percent of original list price
or less, the same as last October."

If you were around last year - a lot of people bought homes in Fall 2017 cadging bets that HRC would lose, mortgage rates would go up, and broader policies would impact their abilities to buy in 2018. They were right. Nov. 6th was a shock to a lot of people and feds started raising rates immediately in Jan 2018.

Hence the reason sales are 'down' in October 2018 versus October 2017 but still above the five-year average.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:These numbers disturb me. We hope to sell our DC home early in the new year.

https://dcrealtors.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2018/11/October-2018.pdf

"- Closed sales. The 742 October sales represented a 10.7 percent decrease versus last year and above the
October five-year average of 718. The 7,697 cumulative year-to-date sales are .8 percent lessthan the number
sold through October of last year.

- Contract activity. There was a 10.7 percent drop in contract activity compared to last October. The 777 overall
new pending sales fell below the five-year October average by 6.0 percent.

- Listing activity. The number of new listings increased 8.1 percent compared to last October. The 1,263 new
listings are significantly above the five-year October average of 1,108.

- Inventory. The 1,816 active listings at month’s end are 13.9 percent more than at the same point last year.

- Months of Supply. Supply remains scarce relative to demand, continuing to drive a strong seller’s market in
the District. The 1,816 active listings represent just 2.5 months of supply.

- Prices. October’s median sales price was $602,250, up 9.5 percent from last year’s median and ranks as the
highest October level on record.

- Sales Price to Original List Price Ratios (SP to OLP). Half the sellers received 100.0 percent of original list price
or less, the same as last October."

If you were around last year - a lot of people bought homes in Fall 2017 cadging bets that HRC would lose, mortgage rates would go up, and broader policies would impact their abilities to buy in 2018. They were right. Nov. 6th was a shock to a lot of people and feds started raising rates immediately in Jan 2018.

Hence the reason sales are 'down' in October 2018 versus October 2017 but still above the five-year average.

+1. Also market is always slow between Thanksgiving and spring. Also, if you are in Fairfax County, 33% of the Amazon employees are slated to live there boosting up prices. https://dc.urbanturf.com/articles/blog/dc-expected-to-gain-3550-households-from-amazon-employees/14695

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you don’t leave pre-kids, wait until your kids are in one of the 2000 student cut-throat schools*50 of them in the dmv.
Stressful and total crapshoot applying to colleges around here.

But have fun with all the sports and arts cuts. Only <10% will make the cut! What a place to live.

Well, if you make the <10% in podunk high school, flyover country, it still may not cut it either for an elite college.

This isn’t 100% accurate. Elite schools also care about geographic diversity so it can actually be easier to get in from a state where there are less applicants.

I was the shining star of a podunk high school, and got into elite Ivy. And barely survived freshman year bc I was in way over my head. I would rather my kids go to excellent high school, be middle of the pack, and then do stellar at VT or JMU.

[phone]

So you'd rather your kids have VT/JMU degrees over an Ivy degree?

Mildly curious.

I grew up here. I went to Brown. My DH went to UVA. He has done much better that me. He has a huge alumni network and that has benefited him very well. I would 100% rather my kids go to UVA or VT than an Ivy. I see no ROI there, other than the fact that you can impress douchebags at cocktail parties.

Well first of all UVA is much better than VT/JMU. I went to an ivy and would be ecstatic if my DC went to an ivy or UVA. That said there are entire industries that you basically have no shot of entering if you don’t go to an ivy or a handful of other schools. You aren’t going to be doing management consulting or investment banking straight out of undergrad at VT or JMU.

If you go to a podunk high school, when you interview for those jobs after your ivy you won’t get hired b/c you won’t fit the culture. They can smell country bumpkin over lunch.

Yes, to get hired at one of those jobs, you need to be the kind of superior that strokes class-based fear of a parenting website. The true measure of sucess is the amount of doubt that you instill in others that their vacations are too cheap, their schools are not exclusive enough, and their homes are McMansions. Now, PP get back to offering back-handed compliments on someone's wine!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you don’t leave pre-kids, wait until your kids are in one of the 2000 student cut-throat schools*50 of them in the dmv.
Stressful and total crapshoot applying to colleges around here.

But have fun with all the sports and arts cuts. Only <10% will make the cut! What a place to live.

Well, if you make the <10% in podunk high school, flyover country, it still may not cut it either for an elite college.

This isn’t 100% accurate. Elite schools also care about geographic diversity so it can actually be easier to get in from a state where there are less applicants.

I was the shining star of a podunk high school, and got into elite Ivy. And barely survived freshman year bc I was in way over my head. I would rather my kids go to excellent high school, be middle of the pack, and then do stellar at VT or JMU.

[phone]

So you'd rather your kids have VT/JMU degrees over an Ivy degree?

Mildly curious.

I grew up here. I went to Brown. My DH went to UVA. He has done much better that me. He has a huge alumni network and that has benefited him very well. I would 100% rather my kids go to UVA or VT than an Ivy. I see no ROI there, other than the fact that you can impress douchebags at cocktail parties.

Well first of all UVA is much better than VT/JMU. I went to an ivy and would be ecstatic if my DC went to an ivy or UVA. That said there are entire industries that you basically have no shot of entering if you don’t go to an ivy or a handful of other schools. You aren’t going to be doing management consulting or investment banking straight out of undergrad at VT or JMU.

No but you can make good money with a computer science and engineering degree out of VT.

But you can also do that from an ivy. Still doesn’t explain why you would rather your kids go to VT/JMU over an ivy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:These numbers disturb me. We hope to sell our DC home early in the new year.

https://dcrealtors.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2018/11/October-2018.pdf

"- Closed sales. The 742 October sales represented a 10.7 percent decrease versus last year and above the
October five-year average of 718. The 7,697 cumulative year-to-date sales are .8 percent lessthan the number
sold through October of last year.

- Contract activity. There was a 10.7 percent drop in contract activity compared to last October. The 777 overall
new pending sales fell below the five-year October average by 6.0 percent.

- Listing activity. The number of new listings increased 8.1 percent compared to last October. The 1,263 new
listings are significantly above the five-year October average of 1,108.

- Inventory. The 1,816 active listings at month’s end are 13.9 percent more than at the same point last year.

- Months of Supply. Supply remains scarce relative to demand, continuing to drive a strong seller’s market in
the District. The 1,816 active listings represent just 2.5 months of supply.

- Prices. October’s median sales price was $602,250, up 9.5 percent from last year’s median and ranks as the
highest October level on record.

- Sales Price to Original List Price Ratios (SP to OLP). Half the sellers received 100.0 percent of original list price
or less, the same as last October."

If you were around last year - a lot of people bought homes in Fall 2017 cadging bets that HRC would lose, mortgage rates would go up, and broader policies would impact their abilities to buy in 2018. They were right. Nov. 6th was a shock to a lot of people and feds started raising rates immediately in Jan 2018.

Hence the reason sales are 'down' in October 2018 versus October 2017 but still above the five-year average.

Huh? You're off by a year. Election was 2016, not 2017.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you don’t leave pre-kids, wait until your kids are in one of the 2000 student cut-throat schools*50 of them in the dmv.
Stressful and total crapshoot applying to colleges around here.

But have fun with all the sports and arts cuts. Only <10% will make the cut! What a place to live.

Well, if you make the <10% in podunk high school, flyover country, it still may not cut it either for an elite college.

This isn’t 100% accurate. Elite schools also care about geographic diversity so it can actually be easier to get in from a state where there are less applicants.

I was the shining star of a podunk high school, and got into elite Ivy. And barely survived freshman year bc I was in way over my head. I would rather my kids go to excellent high school, be middle of the pack, and then do stellar at VT or JMU.

[phone]

So you'd rather your kids have VT/JMU degrees over an Ivy degree?

Mildly curious.

I grew up here. I went to Brown. My DH went to UVA. He has done much better that me. He has a huge alumni network and that has benefited him very well. I would 100% rather my kids go to UVA or VT than an Ivy. I see no ROI there, other than the fact that you can impress douchebags at cocktail parties.

Well first of all UVA is much better than VT/JMU. I went to an ivy and would be ecstatic if my DC went to an ivy or UVA. That said there are entire industries that you basically have no shot of entering if you don’t go to an ivy or a handful of other schools. You aren’t going to be doing management consulting or investment banking straight out of undergrad at VT or JMU.

News to me. I know some recent grads from VT who are at large consulting firms. You are so wrong about that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you don’t leave pre-kids, wait until your kids are in one of the 2000 student cut-throat schools*50 of them in the dmv.
Stressful and total crapshoot applying to colleges around here.

But have fun with all the sports and arts cuts. Only <10% will make the cut! What a place to live.

Well, if you make the <10% in podunk high school, flyover country, it still may not cut it either for an elite college.

This isn’t 100% accurate. Elite schools also care about geographic diversity so it can actually be easier to get in from a state where there are less applicants.

I was the shining star of a podunk high school, and got into elite Ivy. And barely survived freshman year bc I was in way over my head. I would rather my kids go to excellent high school, be middle of the pack, and then do stellar at VT or JMU.

[phone]

So you'd rather your kids have VT/JMU degrees over an Ivy degree?

Mildly curious.

Yes, b/c my career did not really benefit b/c I hung out with out ‘podunk’ kids who majored in ‘busytown’ jobs — doctors, engineers, teachers.

I literally had never heard of investment banking or biglaw or what an MBA meant until maybe my senior year. I had no idea how different those career paths would be nor how lucrative. Not how important summer internships were or the first jobs after college.

There is so much career guidance that comes from people you deeply trust, family, friends you grew up with, even parents of friends — taking some crazy hard classes for 4 years doesn’t necessarily change the course of your life.

Now if I had a cute DD, I guess there could be some value to the ‘MRS degree’ factor at an Ivy school if she was not career minded.

Full disclosure: I didn't go to an ivy.

I understand this rationale. I read some study some years back (can't remember details), but the gist is that most ivy grads have the same jobs as people who didn't go to ivies. I've met lots of ivy grads who are in the same line of work as I am and other fields, and some aren't even as successful with promotions or compensation. Once you're working, your success on the job is the most critical factor.

Now if you want to go into biglaw or some other prestigious line of work that basically requires it, then going to the ivies is the correct path. But if you just want a professional job making six figures, then there are lots of paths to get there via both ivies and non-ivies.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:If you don’t leave pre-kids, wait until your kids are in one of the 2000 student cut-throat schools*50 of them in the dmv.
Stressful and total crapshoot applying to colleges around here.

But have fun with all the sports and arts cuts. Only <10% will make the cut! What a place to live.

Well, if you make the <10% in podunk high school, flyover country, it still may not cut it either for an elite college.

This isn’t 100% accurate. Elite schools also care about geographic diversity so it can actually be easier to get in from a state where there are less applicants.

I was the shining star of a podunk high school, and got into elite Ivy. And barely survived freshman year bc I was in way over my head. I would rather my kids go to excellent high school, be middle of the pack, and then do stellar at VT or JMU.

[phone]

So you'd rather your kids have VT/JMU degrees over an Ivy degree?

Mildly curious.

I grew up here. I went to Brown. My DH went to UVA. He has done much better that me. He has a huge alumni network and that has benefited him very well. I would 100% rather my kids go to UVA or VT than an Ivy. I see no ROI there, other than the fact that you can impress douchebags at cocktail parties.

Well first of all UVA is much better than VT/JMU. I went to an ivy and would be ecstatic if my DC went to an ivy or UVA. That said there are entire industries that you basically have no shot of entering if you don’t go to an ivy or a handful of other schools. You aren’t going to be doing management consulting or investment banking straight out of undergrad at VT or JMU.

News to me. I know some recent grads from VT who are at large consulting firms. You are so wrong about that.

+1. Very wrong. When I was at a bulge bracket IB, the firm recruited at a good number of schools, including some state schools and black colleges. I’d almost argue it’s harder to get your Ib or consulting job out of an Ivy as probably more students there are competing for the slots. It wasn’t as popular of a path at my state school.

I think it’s so weird someone thinks investment banks and management consulting firms are made up almost entirely of Ivy League grads.