Inconsistence and Inaccuracy in PGCPS COVID Date Interpretation

[Anonymous]

PGCPS Matrix for Safe School Reopening contains a major data reporting error. They report case rate per DAY but interpret the result using guidance from the CDC that reports case rate per WEEK. This means that they are reporting a daily rate of about 19 but interpreting that result using a weekly case rate -- so that puts the school district in the "yellow" zone when it should be in the "red" zone.

https://docs.google.com/document/u/1/d/e/2PACX-1vSFxiSs4wqg-eAl8CFb8xcbp5jzzf7bOLFycIspLhVrGYY02n9Wgrfmh4fUKke-v_D1htyYady3g1Zl/pub?fbclid=IwAR3fkgLnbYmvo_sjr_xGDcEKNgRon_PWXB0-xafZyZGTfJDPrlYRM60axz4

[Anonymous]

PGCPS states that they developed their matrix based on the CDC guidelines. They made a mistake. The numbers chosen for each color (red, yellow etc) come from the CDC guidelines based on a weekly rate, but the column heading states a daily case rate.

"Developed Using: Operational Strategy for K-12 Schools through Phased Prevention, Revised 4/2/21"

https://www.pgcps.org/globalassets/featured-pages/coronavirus/docs---coronavirus/key-metrics/prince-georges-county-key-metrics---04-09-21.pdf

[Anonymous]

So now the school district says their chart was created by the Orince George’s County health Department. So someone in the health department mixed up daily case rate with weekly case rate.

Our county is, per the cdc, in the red zone of widespread community transmission; however the school district’s incorrect chart show us in the yellow or moderate zone.

[Anonymous]

https://www.pgcps.org/globalassets/featured-pages/coronavirus/docs---coronavirus/key-metrics/prince-georges-county-key-metrics---04-14-21.pdf

Here it is again. PGCPS says our community transmission of COVID is in the yellow or moderate level as of 4-14-2921.

At the same time that the CDC says we are in the red zone or high transmission.

According to PGCPS, you need a daily case rate of more than 100 new cases per day, per 100,000 to be in the red zone.

According to the CDC you need a weekly case rate of more than 100 new cases per week, per 100,000, to be in the red zone, that would be a daily case rate
of around 15.

Why is Prince George’s county reporting we are in the yellow zone when we are in the red zone?

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:https://www.pgcps.org/globalassets/featured-pages/coronavirus/docs---coronavirus/key-metrics/prince-georges-county-key-metrics---04-14-21.pdf

Here it is again. PGCPS says our community transmission of COVID is in the yellow or moderate level as of 4-14-2921.

At the same time that the CDC says we are in the red zone or high transmission.

According to PGCPS, you need a daily case rate of more than 100 new cases per day, per 100,000 to be in the red zone.

According to the CDC you need a weekly case rate of more than 100 new cases per week, per 100,000, to be in the red zone, that would be a daily case rate
of around 15.

Why is Prince George’s county reporting we are in the yellow zone when we are in the red zone?

Why are you so obsessed with this? If you are worried about the schools being open, don't send your kids.
There are so few kids in the buildings. My kids elementary school will have at most 75 kids in the building. The schools normal enrolment is over 600.

[Anonymous]

I just dislike false information.

High schoolers are very much at risk. Mine is already staying home. We are NOT in the yellow zone at all.

[Anonymous]

https://www.google.com/amp/s/patch.com/maryland/baltimore/amp/29426152/14-md-jurisdictions-in-red-zone-4th-covid-wave-hits

14 counties in MD are in the red zone including ours.

Maryland has the highest rate of hospitalizations in the US except for Michigan.

We should be closing things down, not pretending spread is minimal.

[Anonymous]

This has nothing to do with schools. If you disagree with how Maryland is handling Covid, stay home and avoid covid. I'm vaccinated. My older kids are vaccinated. My spouse is vaccinated. I'm not worried about catching covid. My kids are back in school.

[Anonymous]

I disagree with how it is being reported.

I’m sad that either Prince Georges county health department or Prince Georges county public schools don’t understand how to read the CDC chart. And they don’t seem to understand the difference between a seven day average, and a seven day total!

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I disagree with how it is being reported.

I’m sad that either Prince Georges county health department or Prince Georges county public schools don’t understand how to read the CDC chart. And they don’t seem to understand the difference between a seven day average, and a seven day total!

I'm sure that they have a complete understanding of how to read the CDC chart. These people are professionals who are more qualified than lay people on how to interpret epidemiological data. Unless you have an advanced degree in public health or in infectious disease medicine I wouldn't be so quick to suggest that they are incompetent. There could be a myriad of reasons that they interpret and present the data the way they do. I'm tired of all the arm chair quarterbacking that has been going on in this country over the pandemic. Put trained professionals into public health positions and let them do their jobs.

PGCPS and the PGC Health Department have been doing a fantastic job this past year, far better than other parts of the country.

[Anonymous]

No. They are using an average daily case rate as a measure. That’s fine. But they are using CDC guidelines that use a seven day total.

It’s a big mistake.

The CDC guidelines say transmission risk level is high if you have a seven day total of cases more than 100 per 100,000 people.

Prince George’s County says we have a daily case rate of 18, so that we are in the yellow moderate risk not the high risk.

It’s true that our daily case rate is 18 new cases per 100,000 per day. I’m not arguing that.

But that’s a daily case rate. If they’re using the CDC guidance they should be looking at a weekly case rate. Multiply that 18.2 by 7 and you get 127 new cases per 100,000 people per week. We are in the red zone; not the yellow zone, as per CDC guidance.


It doesn’t take a degree in epidemiology to understand how to read a chart based on basic math. You cannot mix measurements like that.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I disagree with how it is being reported.

I’m sad that either Prince Georges county health department or Prince Georges county public schools don’t understand how to read the CDC chart. And they don’t seem to understand the difference between a seven day average, and a seven day total!

I'm sure that they have a complete understanding of how to read the CDC chart. These people are professionals who are more qualified than lay people on how to interpret epidemiological data. Unless you have an advanced degree in public health or in infectious disease medicine I wouldn't be so quick to suggest that they are incompetent. There could be a myriad of reasons that they interpret and present the data the way they do. I'm tired of all the arm chair quarterbacking that has been going on in this country over the pandemic. Put trained professionals into public health positions and let them do their jobs.

PGCPS and the PGC Health Department have been doing a fantastic job this past year, far better than other parts of the country.

I actually think those organizations have been doing a mostly decent job throughout this pandemic too; That’s why I want them to fix this error.

It makes it look like they’re trying to hide the fact that we are in a red zone in terms of community transmission.

A more honest thing to do would be to a would be to change the chart, admit we have red zone high community transmission as per the CDC, and admit that despite this, schools are open with precautions Because it has been decided that schools can be open during high community transmission.

But if you manipulate the labels on the chart And report a daily rate, but compare it to weekly guidelines. To make it appear that you are in a yellow or moderate community spread phase, makes it look like you are trying to manipulate statistics to convince people there’s little community transmission.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I'm sure that they have a complete understanding of how to read the CDC chart. These people are professionals who are more qualified than lay people on how to interpret epidemiological data. Unless you have an advanced degree in public health or in infectious disease medicine I wouldn't be so quick to suggest that they are incompetent. There could be a myriad of reasons that they interpret and present the data the way they do.

It’s sixth grade math.

The CDC defines widespread transmission of a disease as having more than 100 new cases, per 100,000 people, per week.

Prince George’s County defines widespread transmission as having more than 100 new cases, per 100,000 per day. They would need to have 700 new cases per 100,000 per week to say there was widespread transmission.

I think they just made a mistake. But if you don’t think it’s a mistake – how can the county justify having a measure seven times as high as the CDC? Why have they decided widespread transmission isn’t until you have 700 new cases per 100,000 per week?