Are chances to get into DCI without feeder near zero?

[Anonymous]

Hi all - Not sure if I'm reading the data correctly (link below). Is it true that it's nearly impossible to get into DCI for 6th grade if you are not coming from a feeder school?

I heard of someone wanting to transfer to a feeder just to get into DCI in 6th, but wondering what their chances would be if just applying from a non-feeder.

Please be kind if I totally messed up reading the data

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay/

[Anonymous]

Is say near zero, yes. And from a feeder that has expanded more like 50/60 percent.

[Anonymous]

If a feeder kid is waisted do they have priority to get in?

[Anonymous]

Yes.

[Anonymous]

It depends. Chances are not very good. If you look at the data, make sure you are looking at it correctly. You can select each feeder's lottery from the drop-down box, or non-feeder student data will be displayed by language. So the option "DCI (French Language Program)" that doesn't say Stokes at all is for non-feeder applicants. Select that and you'll see 30 seats offered for non-feeder kids, and 130 were waitlisted. But 5 of the 30 matches were siblings. So if you aren't a sibling, then your chances would be 25 over 155-- the number of matches divided by applicants, non-siblings only. Then they've made 4 offers as of early August. So your chances are not very good, but it's certainly not impossible.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/aaron2446/viz/MSDCSeatsandWaitlistOfferData_draft/MSDCPublicDisplay

[Anonymous]

Yes, just try to get into a feeder to increase your chances.

[Anonymous]

Okay so I ran the math on this. Here’s the percentage of kids without feeder preference who eventually get in each year, including wait list offers.

Chinese:
2019-2020 45%
62%
100%
54%
2023-2024 23%

French:
2019-2020 15%
31%
87%
38%
2023-2024 21%

Spanish:
2019-2020 35%
37%
16%
26%
2023-2024 0%

Note that the 2023-2024 figures do not yet include September wait list offers, so those numbers should go up.

So the simple answer is no, you do have a chance to get in without a feeder preference, though it varies by year and language, and as with all popular DC schools, your chances are dramatically higher if you’re willing to accept a waitlist offer whenever you get it, even in September. If you don’t include waitlist offers, those percents get cut, on average, by about half.

This is all based purely on historical data though. The concerning number is the big ole 0 for Spanish this year. Not a single offer. I’m a data nerd, but I’m not familiar with the policies and trends at DCI more broadly. If they’ve made a permanent change that created that zero, and they don’t make any waitlist offers in September, then yeah, getting in to the Spanish track without a feeder preference might no longer be possible. If it was just a weird year with big classes coming from the feeders, then the numbers imply you’ve got a chance in future years.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Okay so I ran the math on this. Here’s the percentage of kids without feeder preference who eventually get in each year, including wait list offers.

Chinese:
2019-2020 45%
62%
100%
54%
2023-2024 23%

French:
2019-2020 15%
31%
87%
38%
2023-2024 21%

Spanish:
2019-2020 35%
37%
16%
26%
2023-2024 0%

Note that the 2023-2024 figures do not yet include September wait list offers, so those numbers should go up.

So the simple answer is no, you do have a chance to get in without a feeder preference, though it varies by year and language, and as with all popular DC schools, your chances are dramatically higher if you’re willing to accept a waitlist offer whenever you get it, even in September. If you don’t include waitlist offers, those percents get cut, on average, by about half.

This is all based purely on historical data though. The concerning number is the big ole 0 for Spanish this year. Not a single offer. I’m a data nerd, but I’m not familiar with the policies and trends at DCI more broadly. If they’ve made a permanent change that created that zero, and they don’t make any waitlist offers in September, then yeah, getting in to the Spanish track without a feeder preference might no longer be possible. If it was just a weird year with big classes coming from the feeders, then the numbers imply you’ve got a chance in future years.

Just FYI re the bolded above - I know that the current group of 6th graders that came from LAMB was NOT a big class, and in fact did not use all of its feeder spots. So I read this to say that there are already other Spanish feeder schools who are using more than allocated seats.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Okay so I ran the math on this. Here’s the percentage of kids without feeder preference who eventually get in each year, including wait list offers.

Chinese:
2019-2020 45%
62%
100%
54%
2023-2024 23%

French:
2019-2020 15%
31%
87%
38%
2023-2024 21%

Spanish:
2019-2020 35%
37%
16%
26%
2023-2024 0%

Note that the 2023-2024 figures do not yet include September wait list offers, so those numbers should go up.

So the simple answer is no, you do have a chance to get in without a feeder preference, though it varies by year and language, and as with all popular DC schools, your chances are dramatically higher if you’re willing to accept a waitlist offer whenever you get it, even in September. If you don’t include waitlist offers, those percents get cut, on average, by about half.

This is all based purely on historical data though. The concerning number is the big ole 0 for Spanish this year. Not a single offer. I’m a data nerd, but I’m not familiar with the policies and trends at DCI more broadly. If they’ve made a permanent change that created that zero, and they don’t make any waitlist offers in September, then yeah, getting in to the Spanish track without a feeder preference might no longer be possible. If it was just a weird year with big classes coming from the feeders, then the numbers imply you’ve got a chance in future years.

The reality is that DCI has been on a large upward trajectory in getting better.

With the expansion classes coming up there is going to be 0 chance of getting into Spanish. French is also going to decrease drastically also.

I also predict the Chinese number to decrease which you can see it trend has significantly because the school is getting more buy in from feeder families.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Yes, just try to get into a feeder to increase your chances.

No family is going to be stupid enough to put their kid who has had zero language into the upper grades feeder schools just to get into DCI.

The kids is going to miss 50% instruction not understanding anything and will be miserable and hate you for it

[Anonymous]

my Spanish language DCI feeder has at least handful of new students in 5th grade, all in to get into DCI. Their Spanish ranges from great [DCPS bilingual program] to rusty at best.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, just try to get into a feeder to increase your chances.

No family is going to be stupid enough to put their kid who has had zero language into the upper grades feeder schools just to get into DCI.

The kids is going to miss 50% instruction not understanding anything and will be miserable and hate you for it

You don't understand how DCI works. You won't have "immersion" classes until year 3 of the target language (or more). Essentially, if you start with Chinese 1 in 6th, you won't get to immersion classes until 9th grade, at least. I believe it's the same for French and Spanish.

The chances of getting into Spanish program are also less because more people choose that as an option, so you are competing against more kids for fewest spots.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Okay so I ran the math on this. Here’s the percentage of kids without feeder preference who eventually get in each year, including wait list offers.

Chinese:
2019-2020 45%
62%
100%
54%
2023-2024 23%

French:
2019-2020 15%
31%
87%
38%
2023-2024 21%

Spanish:
2019-2020 35%
37%
16%
26%
2023-2024 0%

Note that the 2023-2024 figures do not yet include September wait list offers, so those numbers should go up.

So the simple answer is no, you do have a chance to get in without a feeder preference, though it varies by year and language, and as with all popular DC schools, your chances are dramatically higher if you’re willing to accept a waitlist offer whenever you get it, even in September. If you don’t include waitlist offers, those percents get cut, on average, by about half.

This is all based purely on historical data though. The concerning number is the big ole 0 for Spanish this year. Not a single offer. I’m a data nerd, but I’m not familiar with the policies and trends at DCI more broadly. If they’ve made a permanent change that created that zero, and they don’t make any waitlist offers in September, then yeah, getting in to the Spanish track without a feeder preference might no longer be possible. If it was just a weird year with big classes coming from the feeders, then the numbers imply you’ve got a chance in future years.

OP here - WOWWWW THANK YOU! You are indeed a data nerd and also extremely generous and industrious to put this together!

Thanks also to the other comments, they are all so clarifying. Wow I didn't realize it was that hard to get in, now this strategy seems less crazy to me...

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, just try to get into a feeder to increase your chances.

No family is going to be stupid enough to put their kid who has had zero language into the upper grades feeder schools just to get into DCI.

The kids is going to miss 50% instruction not understanding anything and will be miserable and hate you for it

You don't understand how DCI works. You won't have "immersion" classes until year 3 of the target language (or more). Essentially, if you start with Chinese 1 in 6th, you won't get to immersion classes until 9th grade, at least. I believe it's the same for French and Spanish.

The chances of getting into Spanish program are also less because more people choose that as an option, so you are competing against more kids for fewest spots.

I know exactly how DCI works. I’m talking about the feeder schools and trying to get into the upper grades when your kid don’t know the language at all. They will struggle a lot and will not understand anything and miss out on key instruction.

BTW the kids coming in with no language at DCI are the low ones on the totem pole. They don’t benefit from the unofficial tracking that high performing kids from feeder gets in the immersion classes.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Yes, just try to get into a feeder to increase your chances.

No family is going to be stupid enough to put their kid who has had zero language into the upper grades feeder schools just to get into DCI.

The kids is going to miss 50% instruction not understanding anything and will be miserable and hate you for it

You don't understand how DCI works. You won't have "immersion" classes until year 3 of the target language (or more). Essentially, if you start with Chinese 1 in 6th, you won't get to immersion classes until 9th grade, at least. I believe it's the same for French and Spanish.

The chances of getting into Spanish program are also less because more people choose that as an option, so you are competing against more kids for fewest spots.

I know exactly how DCI works. I’m talking about the feeder schools and trying to get into the upper grades when your kid don’t know the language at all. They will struggle a lot and will not understand anything and miss out on key instruction.

BTW the kids coming in with no language at DCI are the low ones on the totem pole. They don’t benefit from the unofficial tracking that high performing kids from feeder gets in the immersion classes.

Oh, right, sorry, I missed that. My bad! And yes, completely agree about kids starting at zero at DCI.