Toggle navigation
Toggle navigation
Home
DCUM Forums
Nanny Forums
Events
About DCUM
Advertising
Search
Recent Topics
Hottest Topics
FAQs and Guidelines
Privacy Policy
Your current identity is: Anonymous
Login
Preview
Subject:
Forum Index
»
Money and Finances
Reply to "Is FIRECalc too optimistic?"
Subject:
Emoticons
More smilies
Text Color:
Default
Dark Red
Red
Orange
Brown
Yellow
Green
Olive
Cyan
Blue
Dark Blue
Violet
White
Black
Font:
Very Small
Small
Normal
Big
Giant
Close Marks
[quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous][quote=Anonymous]50/56yo with $5.25m in retirement/brokerage accounts, DH will have a pension of about $50k/y. Trying to figure out if we can retire in 5 years. FIRECalc thinks that we are good to go as long as we spend less than $500k/year (using the Bernicke's Reality Retirement Plan that reduces the spending as one ages). Moreover, it projects us dying with possibly many millions left in our estate.... Do you think that FIRECalc is too optimistic?[/quote] What's the percentage success rate for being "good to go"? When I plug your numbers in--assuming the 50k pension starts in about 10 years at 66 and that you'll retire in 5 years, the success rate is only 80%. I personally am not comfortable with that level of success. But maybe you're still contributing and the pension will start in 5 years so the numbers are different? Also, because one of you is 56 already, Bernicke's model starts going down right away so your actual spending starts at 483K spending per year and then going steadily down to plateau after 20 years to around 220k/yr for your remaining years. So it's not "not going over 500k, but rather matching the rather precipitous decline Bernicke's shows in the graph and settling at a rate that's less than half what you started with. Are you going to be fine with that? Healthcare/long term care? I would try a couple of different firecalc models and play with the parameters to get a better sense. [/quote] Thank you for this thoughtful response. The success rate is over 96%. I used the lower age for the model, but still your point is well taken. Spouse is a fed, so health insurance is taken care of. [/quote] A success rate of 75% is good. 80% is better. [b]96% means you are quite quite conservative[/b].[/quote] I agree with this. We have 100% success rate on all calculators we use, and we have a 50/50 portfolio. [/quote]
Options
Disable HTML in this message
Disable BB Code in this message
Disable smilies in this message
Review message
Search
Recent Topics
Hottest Topics