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Reply to "Ukrainian victory over Russia is inevitable "
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[quote=Anonymous]Ukraine has the population, will, and backing to win. It has also proven it can outlast and outfight the RA. Russia’s losses are unsustainable, while Ukraine’s are not. I am not just referring to equipment (although Russia cannot replace its lost tanks/planes missiles, while Ukraine’s supplies of tanks / IVFs etc. increase daily ). As to combat losses of soldiers, WW1 France is a good analogy. France 1914: pop 39.6M. KIA over 4.3 years: 1.4M, or about 320,500 per year every year. Total % of male population per year, all ages :1.6% Ukraine 2022: pop 43.8M. KIA over 1 year: 50K? 75K? Official figures are not released. Total of male population per year, all ages: to 0.22% to 0.34%. Ukraine is taking essentially 1/5th to 1/7th the casualty rate that France took every year for 4.3 years, and at the end of that 4.3 years the French Army was objectively stronger than it was in 1914 thanks to added capabilities and tactics. It is also relevant the French were fighting against being subjugated, while the Ukrainians are fighting against being exterminated. There are plenty of ground-level interviews that show the average Ukrainian knows the stakes. Ukraine will fight on because they must. Study the military history of Israel for comparison, where an objectively smaller, less-equipped military nevertheless prevailed over much larger forces and against all odds. Having studied Russia’s repeated, overt, statements of their genocidal intentions toward Ukraine, this isn’t just rhetoric. Russia absolutely will murder millions of Ukrainians if they win. They’ve done it before and they say they will do it again (and that is not even considering their intended cultural genocide, which is currently underway in some Oblasts). Ukraine can suffer these losses far longer than Russia can keep throwing mobiks at them. It is not that Russia will run out of mobiks, but rather, Russia is losing because of poor and deteriorating morale, broken, antiquated logistics, lack of training, crippling economic sanctions, and domestic production issues. Russia can’t possibly solve these critical issues in the necessary timeframe. Russia is facing a coalition of forces with more than 20 times their GDP. This military conflict can only end one way. And Putin has steadfastly refused at this point to negotiate. Rest assured: Russia will lose this war. The only open question is if Russia survives this, or breaks up entirely.[/quote]
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