Downtown DC is a storefront ghost

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Out: storefronts and bricks and mortar stores

In: high density urban living and restaurants / eateries

Out: high density urban living where the last pandemic spread like crazy and the next one will too.

In: living exurban or rural on a big piece of property and working from home.

This is just nonsense. During the pandemic, Montana had the highest death rate for a couple of months. I wondered how people could get covid when your nearest neighbor was miles away.

Nice “urban” legend.

Just google monthly stats 2020-2021 instead of being lazy.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Out: storefronts and bricks and mortar stores

In: high density urban living and restaurants / eateries

Out: high density urban living where the last pandemic spread like crazy and the next one will too.

In: living exurban or rural on a big piece of property and working from home.

This is just nonsense. During the pandemic, Montana had the highest death rate for a couple of months. I wondered how people could get covid when your nearest neighbor was miles away.

Nice “urban” legend.

Just google monthly stats 2020-2021 instead of being lazy.

From the CDC's site, for 2020, Montana was #30 by age-adjusted death rate among states. It jumped to #20 by age-adjusted death rate for 2021.

However, SD and ND were both right after NJ and NY in 2020 (MS was just ahead of ND which was #5, but SD was #3). And then in 2021 the top was #1 OK and #6 WY which are all pretty empty. So your point may still stand. However... the huge spikes in those states were in December 2020 and then again in December 2021 - so holiday spread. Compare that to NY which got hit *hard* and early (highest death rate there was in March and April 2020). Also, Native American populations in these more empty states exist and were hit really hard.

So yeah, I don't think either of you are right here. Urban vs. rural doesn't matter. Preparedness at the hospitals aand mitigations to stop the spread sure as hell did.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do so many homeless people want to be in the downtown city anyway? I’ve often wondered about that.

Not just downtown, but warmer downtown. You can't live on the street in Potomac, can you? Boston winter would kill you too if you don't have shelter.

People actually can, and do, live unhoused in Potomac. But you don't see them.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Why do so many homeless people want to be in the downtown city anyway? I’ve often wondered about that.

Not just downtown, but warmer downtown. You can't live on the street in Potomac, can you? Boston winter would kill you too if you don't have shelter.

People actually can, and do, live unhoused in Potomac. But you don't see them.

Lol.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Out: storefronts and bricks and mortar stores

In: high density urban living and restaurants / eateries

Yes! They need to turn this vacant office space into housing ASAP. People would gladly live downtown and then some of the shops/restaurants/life will come back.

Yeah, no thanks. I like my quiet yard and my trees and my front porch swing and my fishpond in the backyard. You can keep the living downtown, with the teenage carjackers, free range crazy homeless, tent encampments and urine and fecal stench. That’s all you.

Not everything has to be for you, and you don't have to post your opinion on threads about topics you're not interested in.

DP

It’s a discussion thread. Not an agreement thread.

Do you understand that people think differently than you, you tinpot tyrant?

[Anonymous]

Not "downtown" but still in the middle of DC-- I had to run an errand at Union Market today around 2 pm, and it was absolutely hopping. I drove to save time and I shouldnt have-- lot at UM was totally full, 6th Street spots totally full, no street parking on surrounding streets. Finally found a spot in the garage under the Latin market over on 4th. UM itself was packed, lines at bunch of stalls, indoor tables full, many outdoor tables as well. This was Wednesday afternoon, a lot of the weekend stalls were not even open, same with the bars. The Latin market was more dead but I popped into trader Joe's for a minute and it was busy too.

I've had similar experiences recently in Navy Yard, the Wharf, and Georgetown.

There is absolutely no reason you can't recreate this downtown with the right investment.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:Not "downtown" but still in the middle of DC-- I had to run an errand at Union Market today around 2 pm, and it was absolutely hopping. I drove to save time and I shouldnt have-- lot at UM was totally full, 6th Street spots totally full, no street parking on surrounding streets. Finally found a spot in the garage under the Latin market over on 4th. UM itself was packed, lines at bunch of stalls, indoor tables full, many outdoor tables as well. This was Wednesday afternoon, a lot of the weekend stalls were not even open, same with the bars. The Latin market was more dead but I popped into trader Joe's for a minute and it was busy too.

I've had similar experiences recently in Navy Yard, the Wharf, and Georgetown.

There is absolutely no reason you can't recreate this downtown with the right investment.

It’s hilarious that you don’t see the pattern.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:I've never understood why landlords do this; presumably there is benefit they get from letting these storefronts sit empty than from lowering the rent to at least get something, but I'm not sure what it is (maybe a tax loss thing?). Seems like something the city should take action to combat.

If they lower rents, then the forecast income from the building adjusts downward and may put them in default with their lenders today vs in several years when the debt comes due. It kicks the can and makes the building less valuable when they turn it over to the lender…in the meantime they hope for a miracle.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm glad I own a modest row house in DC because I need to know that I'll always be able to afford the property taxes. I think a decade from now the people who own the Milion+ homes are going to feel the pain of property taxes like NY and NJ.

The moaning has already started. This gem was on the ChCh listserv because of the *possibility* of graduated property taxes!

So, let me understand, those of us who bought our homes years ago at was is now considered, way below todays values, in our case 45 years ago, a home we could never afford to buy today! We paid $186,000, the then fair rate, and because the city says it would now be worth over $1,500,000, and we are now retired and on a lower yet steady yet moderate income, we may now be penalized because our property is worth so much more, yet that value could only be realized if our home were to be sold, and we have no interest in selling at this point!

Am I missing something here? Maybe I could see a special tax when our property is sold, but to tax us more now is ridiculous!

Are people trying to drive the seniors who have supported this city through its ups and down out of the city? This will never drive me out but time will tell!

Let’s look for equitable tax sources, this one is insane for long-time owners who have lived in the city for years and with the current crime situation are receiving less!

Oh, you poor, victimized person whose home has increased *at least* 8x in value over 45 years (btw inflation was only about 4x).... /tiny violin.

The problem is that the complainer's assessed value is still well below $1.5MM because DC caps annual increases in assessed value at 10%, but gives full credit for price decreases. During this homeowner's time period (i.e., 1980 until today), assessed values actually decreased in the 1990s, so I doubt the homeowner's assessed value is much more than like $750k (probably less) today.

I paid 3x what this person paid in 2000, and my assessed value is still well below $1.5MM, even though the market value has exceeded the treshold.

If this tax change happens, it will impact recent homeowners dramatically more than folks who have owned their homes for 45 years. There are also senior property tax discounts, which I gather this person can avail. I don't think those factor a senior's income or NW into who benefits.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:I'm glad I own a modest row house in DC because I need to know that I'll always be able to afford the property taxes. I think a decade from now the people who own the Milion+ homes are going to feel the pain of property taxes like NY and NJ.

The moaning has already started. This gem was on the ChCh listserv because of the *possibility* of graduated property taxes!

So, let me understand, those of us who bought our homes years ago at was is now considered, way below todays values, in our case 45 years ago, a home we could never afford to buy today! We paid $186,000, the then fair rate, and because the city says it would now be worth over $1,500,000, and we are now retired and on a lower yet steady yet moderate income, we may now be penalized because our property is worth so much more, yet that value could only be realized if our home were to be sold, and we have no interest in selling at this point!

Am I missing something here? Maybe I could see a special tax when our property is sold, but to tax us more now is ridiculous!

Are people trying to drive the seniors who have supported this city through its ups and down out of the city? This will never drive me out but time will tell!

Let’s look for equitable tax sources, this one is insane for long-time owners who have lived in the city for years and with the current crime situation are receiving less!

Oh, you poor, victimized person whose home has increased *at least* 8x in value over 45 years (btw inflation was only about 4x).... /tiny violin.

The problem is that the complainer's assessed value is still well below $1.5MM because DC caps annual increases in assessed value at 10%, but gives full credit for price decreases. During this homeowner's time period (i.e., 1980 until today), assessed values actually decreased in the 1990s, so I doubt the homeowner's assessed value is much more than like $750k (probably less) today.

I paid 3x what this person paid in 2000, and my assessed value is still well below $1.5MM, even though the market value has exceeded the treshold.

If this tax change happens, it will impact recent homeowners dramatically more than folks who have owned their homes for 45 years. There are also senior property tax discounts, which I gather this person can avail. I don't think those factor a senior's income or NW into who benefits.

Last piece is wrong — senior property tax deduction requires you to have ‘22 FAGI of less than $154k. No requirement for NW.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:Out: storefronts and bricks and mortar stores

In: high density urban living and restaurants / eateries

Yes! They need to turn this vacant office space into housing ASAP. People would gladly live downtown and then some of the shops/restaurants/life will come back.

I think you are severely overestimating the number of people who want to live "downtown." There is housing available and being built there. But there aren't lines of people waiting. Even people who want to live in the city mostly don't want to live "downtown." The rowhouse neighborhoods are far more desirable than downtown, which is mostly an ugly, charmless, gray, wasteland.

DC is not charmless. We have more parkland per capita than any other city:
https://www.axios.com/local/washington-dc/2023/06/02/dc-public-parks-best

Great restaurants. I'm all for creating housing downtown. Especially if the schools keep attracting more students as they have steadily done for decades now, if we also make more playgrounds, the people will come. I have no problem if the value of condos stays steady / goes down with increased supply. We've got the Smithsonian, the revitalized waterfront, the Anthem and many other new concert venues. Life is good in DC. Keep ignoring / missing out if you want to. Up to yiou.

[Anonymous]

The CRE industry still needs to work through refinancing these properties. Or defaulting, tearing down, etc. which could take years or decades as loans come due. Few if any conversions or other renovation projects can be financed in the current environment. Once rates go down in the next year or so, there could be a little more hope for downtown buildings. I’ve heard that 30% of all office buildings in the nation should be demolished. So we have lots to change before things look up.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The vagrant-urinating-scene in MacPherson Sq is pretty vibrant.

Are you kidding? It is 1000% improved over what it was a year or so ago. That encampment was awful.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:The CRE industry still needs to work through refinancing these properties. Or defaulting, tearing down, etc. which could take years or decades as loans come due. Few if any conversions or other renovation projects can be financed in the current environment. Once rates go down in the next year or so, there could be a little more hope for downtown buildings. I’ve heard that 30% of all office buildings in the nation should be demolished. So we have lots to change before things look up.

Exactly. Many of these properties are also held in portfolios with other properties in different cities. So even if they have underperforming buildings in DC perhaps their buildings in Miami or Phoenix provide and adequate return across the whole portfolio such that they can try to ride out the higher rate environment. However, your hope - along with the CRE markets hope - that rates will go down significantly very soon does not look likely unless the country enters a recession.

[Anonymous]

Anonymous wrote:

Anonymous wrote:The vagrant-urinating-scene in MacPherson Sq is pretty vibrant.

Are you kidding? It is 1000% improved over what it was a year or so ago. That encampment was awful.

A year ago it was unhoused people murdering each other and dying of ODs. Yes, it’s better. But let’s be clear about the reason why. The current situation is still bad.