DACA political calculus
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Anonymous
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President Trump is getting ready to let ICE go after the Dreamers.
Does this help the President and the party? Since Dreamers and their descendants will vote maybe 75% Democrat (once they get citizenship and are voting age), he’s pushing down the Democrat vote moving forward. Will other Latinos and sympathizers vote on this issue, and vote because if this? Likely those people already are Democrat, so the issue is whether they’ll turn out. They may be mad now, but they’re still stupid the boss gives them a double-shift so they can’t make it to vote on Election Day. They still have to get past any police and Sheriff checkpoints. They still have to figure out childcare while they vote, or drag the kids along. Will Dreamer deportations in March really motivate them eight months later? Vs. the ongoing Democrat votes you know you remove with deportations? Democrat votes banked as Dreamers get citizenship and their kids are born and reach voting age? President Trump is pretty canny. He’s doing the right thing, and Republicans need to stick with him through the fake news media’s coverage. |
Anonymous
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Not sure if you're a Republican or Democrat from that spiel.
First, DACA kids won't be deported. Nice job at the scare tactic, but no. All Trump did is remove the TEMPORARY protection signed by Obama. (Another example of Obama "fixing" a problem by creating a bigger one down the line - like the Iran deal and Obamacare.) The DACA kids (should they get citizenship) and their anchor babies (25% of DACA kids have already reproduced) will overwhelimgly vote Democrat, as you say, and that's the sole reason the D's are pushing for citizenship. Ironically, Trump made a fine offer: a path to citizenship for 1.8 million dreamers, more than the 800,000 who fit a more narrow DACA description, but the Democrsrs, so blind in their hatred, rejected it. Pelosi called it "the plan to make America white again," as she was in a pure panic by the ressonableness of Trump's offer. (The rest of the proposal was basically a merit-based plan, which most Americans want.) |
Anonymous
You sure packed a lot of crap into one post, OP. Kudos! |
Anonymous
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NP. Trump created a hostage situation. By issuing an executive order removing protection for DACA children and subjecting them to deportation, Trump basically put a gun to their heads. Democrats are trying to pay a reasonable ransom to save the DACA kids, by agreeing to vote with Republicans in Congress to waste money on Trump's wall. But Trump has said that's not good enough, and he wants a bigger ransom, including not only money for his wall but also new caps on legal immigration. Democrats are balking at this higher ransom.
If Trump starts deporting DACA kids, that's like shooting hostages. It's unclear whether Democrats will pay more ransom once Trump starts shooting the hostages. It's also unclear to me whether Trump is smart enough to compromise. Democrats could just refuse to pay any ransom, and then just wait until Trump and the Republicans are gone in 2020. If Democrats gain control in 2020, they could create a program that lets all the deported DACA kids apply for immediate re-entry. Not a great solution, and definitely a gamble for the DACA kids, but that's my prediction for where we're headed. |
Anonymous
| ok, explain how a person brought here as a child without papers can go through the process to become a legal citizen of the only country they have ever known WTHOUT having to be sent back to whatever country their parents likely were lucky to escape with their lives. |
Anonymous
| ack - my "i" key is broken. Sorry. I can spell, I swear. |
Anonymous
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Supreme Court just rejected Trump putting a halt to the end of the program
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/us-supreme-court-rejects-trump-over-dreamers-immigrants/ar-BBJC9La?li=BBmkt5R&ocid=spartanntp |
Anonymous
It’s a bit more nuanced. |
Anonymous
It is. But it has to go back through the appeals process which means they accept renewals. |
Anonymous
9:34 again. As far as I know, the only way DACA kids can become US citizens is via legislation that Congress passes. Democrats in Congress would happily vote for that, and so would enough Republicans to allow it to pass. But the Republicans controlling Congress won't allow any such legislation to even reach a vote (the "Hastert Roadblock Rule") because the far right wing Tea Party Republicans dislike it. The only way those radical right wing Republicans will support citizenship for DACA kids is if Democrats agree to vote for measures that will hurt at least as many other non-DACA immigrants (probably many more). In essence, the right wing Republicans want to force Democrats to sacrifice one group of immigrants to save another. Democrats likely won't pay that ransom. Therefore, IMHO, there's essentially no chance the current Congress passes legislation that allows citizenship for DACA kids. That's incredibly frustrating. The only solution I see is to vote those Republicans out of Congress in 2018 and 2020. In the meantime, people should tie up as many of the DACA deportations as possible with legal fights in the courts, to delay deportations until Congress changes. I suspect this also means many DACA kids will have to hide from ICE, which creates all sorts of social problems for everyone. |
Anonymous
| The GOP will be moribund in a decade. It can’t happen soon enough. Good riddance. |
Anonymous
| 11:22 / 9:34 again. Today, as others noted, the Supreme Court refused to allow the Trump administration to end the DACA renewal registrations immediately. Trump can continue to push that argument though the other courts, but it will take another year or more to get a final decision from the courts. This effectively protects the registered DACA kids, and buys time until at least the 2018 election. Now what needs to happen if for people to vote Democrats into office, so we can get legislation to fix the system. |